Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 what time is the 0Z GFS? reaches our time frame around 10:50 - 11:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can you say, 12"+? I'm thinking overall ratios around 12 or 13:1 for us. I can say it, but I'm not believing it. I think 9" might be the ceiling. NAM is the juiciest model attm, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hope my wife leaves some snow for me to shovel. You'll have to slip someone $50.... I was stuck in DFW for the 12/03 storm. My daughter was 4 and 1/2.......wife had to hire some guy and he did an awful job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Missing like one of the more epic snow bombs ever...... WHAT a literal screw job for me. Hoping for banding. How are you getting screwed?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1030 what time is the 0Z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i hope we get hammered then i will get called into the fire house OT baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think we'd be in the same boat per the NAM we'd change quickly too. It's the 33-36 hour panels that I question on the NAM and will until probably the 12z in the AM even if the others follow suit tonight. We have an epic burst of UVV's off NJ at hour 33. At that exact moment the entire trough is instantly energized all the way back through the base of it the vorticity increases at a tremendous rate and we have a center jump effectively (contours aren't closed but it'll be there) by 36 hours as it rides up over Bob's head. Not saying it isn't plausible, hopefully for a lot of folks including the bottom of my skiis it's supported by the others. If the NAM is right this will be one fo the most incredible thumps I've ever seen. the thing is such a bomb the low-levels are basically collapsing beneath it and cooling remarkably fast...but that's offset by a strong push of marine air on screaming ll easterlies. i dont know that 20 miles will have mattered as much for a forecast for this area in a long time. it's a couple ticks from a 34F concrete vs. a 37F R+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any thoughts on where and what time people will start to see the first signs of precip in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that's the 42 hour sounding...after the best snow is over and on the backside of the low. Take a look at 36. Ahh yes...sorry lol...I'm on the phone with my friend and buzzed so I screwe up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Very tidy, but I don't think my brain could assimilate that much data from a line like that without a decoder sheet. Worth practicing. Take a snow day Wednesday. (thanks again btw) Practice...it comes quickly. You're smart...and a weenie....lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I can say it, but I'm not believing it. I think 9" might be the ceiling. NAM is the juiciest model attm, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The T-R-E-N-D. Watch it. Enjoy it. Shovel it. :snowman: Inching ever closer, we'll be sittin' pretty by go time Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I can say it, but I'm not believing it. I think 9" might be the ceiling. NAM is the juiciest model attm, I think. I hear ya. I do think 6-12" is a solid call at this point, however. SREFs have pretty much been unchanged over the past several runs and would support that upper end and GFS, GFS ens, and GEM would support the lower given those ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 It could get close like the last storm, but hopefully it bombs out like depicted or even goes 15-20 miles east, for you. I do think you may dryslot for a bit, but the damage will be done. Agreed. Like 99% of my precip. is done at 48h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I learned FOUS from RikC who occasionally posts here....about 12-13 years ago. I find it a valuable quick and dirty tool. eg: If numbers of the group on the far right are 00, BL temps is 0C. If it is 99, bl is -1C. 2nd 2 numbers are H8 and far right 2 are H7 (I think....can't remember). Wind vectors are in second set of numbers. eg: 0134 means 010 vector and 34 kts. Far left numbers...last 3 are qpf in the 6 hour period. That's all we had when I was in school 25 years ago! Wish we still had that NGM & LFM....nice little models. There should be a header on there with letters like PTT and VV T1, etc. That tells you what the column is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You'll have to slip someone $50.... I was stuck in DFW for the 12/03 storm. My daughter was 4 and 1/2.......wife had to hire some guy and he did an awful job. I'd be lying to you guys if I wasn't pulling for this to suck right up Narragansett Bay. Any chance? Hey, don't throw stones, nothing personal, all business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Any chance we see two feet out of this? I specifically am in Danvers, but was more thinking anywhere in SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the thing is such a bomb the low-levels are basically collapsing beneath it and cooling remarkably fast...but that's offset by a strong push of marine air on screaming ll easterlies. i dont know that 20 miles will have mattered as much for a forecast for this area in a long time. it's a couple ticks from a 34F concrete vs. a 37F R+ Very true. This time I guess I have almost flat emotions whenever I see the NAM. I just have absolutely no faith in it with the nod that it could be right this time. Will wait for the Euro (not literally in the am...because like many systems I think it won't be decided until the home stretch Tuesday. I'd like to see the RGEM/GFS/EC stick around ACK or east for us....but dont care eitheer way as long as ski country gets buried. Ironically the NAM would fit well with the 8-16" area from earlier, but we take a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i wonder wether norwich , ct may have 3 feet of snow on the ground thurs am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I hear ya. I do think 6-12" is a solid call at this point, however. SREFs have pretty much been unchanged over the past several runs and would support that upper end and GFS, GFS ens, and GEM would support the lower given those ratios. Yeah, no complaints with 6-12 as a forecast. There is support for the higher end. I'm just a conservative s.o.b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ahh yes...sorry lol...I'm on the phone with my friend and buzzed so I screwe up Monday night, pre-storm drinking? Nice. I thought you only pre-game drank during thunderstorm forecasts? :mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Since when did people ever depend on milk so much? Never understood that. In this day and age, with snow removal, people will be at the stores not too much after the storm is over. not if you are in NYC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 now that would be something! i wonder wether norwich , ct may have 3 feet of snow on the ground thurs am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mets et al... You need to go with the upper end of the acc range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That's all we had when I was in school 25 years ago! Wish we still had that NGM & LFM....nice little models. There should be a header on there with letters like PTT and VV T1, etc. That tells you what the column is. TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Monday night, pre-storm drinking? Nice. I thought you only pre-game drank during thunderstorm forecasts? :mapstorm: Well I prefer not to drink actually for the day leading up to an event but since I want to go to sleep early tonight I chose to do so. Will be waking up 5 AM tomorrow and won't be going to bed until late Wednesday night. First the NAM and now the Bruins....WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mets et al... You need to go with the upper end of the acc range. Such as??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i think i already beat last year in snowfall this storm could double it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Mets et al... You need to go with the upper end of the acc range. that might have been your shortest post ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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