Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i agree with that, messenger...seems a tad flatter (but not much though) I just dumped the post where i said it was building heights. Had the maps reversed. I try to pull them down and compare locally vs online as it's a faster setup but. It's a lot stronger with the vorticity, whenever that has been the case we've ended up west. There's more than one way to get to the same solution, even though it was flatter to start it may not mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Breaking News: The 0z NAM appears to be coming up with yet another unique solution at 500. It did adjust at 0h v 18z and it is flatter for sure than that run very early. In other news the SREF's shifted a good bit west. Be nice if it could pick a trend. there is a trend and it's not great if you want to see a snowstorm on the cape. (it's west) meso are leading the way IMO and a very respectable met i p'md (didn't ask him i could quote him) so i will just say that he said to the effect " yes i see 0z globals moving west" and he seemed Very confident about that...with a detailed response why listing about 4 reasons which i barely comprehended . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the entire island? Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 there is a trend and it's not great if you want to see a snowstorm on the cape. (it's west) meso are leading the way IMO and a very respectable met i p'md (didn't ask him i could quote him) so i will just say that he said to the effect " yes i see 0z globals moving west" and he seemed Very confident about that...with a detailed response why listing about 4 reasons which i barely comprehended . I'm not convinced its any more or even as far west as 18Z at least through the first 21 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's negatively tilted like crazy at 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Over ACK? Thats about a 25 mi shift NW. Hopefully not too far west. I''d hate to see this thing bust out in rain for more folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 78 was 33 years ago. I think at this point, we (those who were around to enjoy it) merely have it as a "that was great--missed a whole week of school" mentality. Yeah, I know, 30-40" Eastern Mass except the cape and islands and 10-20" in western , Mass back then. Increadible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's negatively tilted like crazy at 18. Wow--it really is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not convinced its any more or even as far west as 18Z at least through the first 21 hours. well he way talking specifically about the 0z gfs/euro runs.....he did say that if it got too amped up (like the trend of the day was doing....it could slow the ULL and cause it to capture the coastal low later and the NW "hook" would occur later near SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not convinced its any more or even as far west as 18Z at least through the first 21 hours. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 there is a trend and it's not great if you want to see a snowstorm on the cape. (it's west) meso are leading the way IMO and a very respectable met i p'md (didn't ask him i could quote him) so i will just say that he said to the effect " yes i see 0z globals moving west" and he seemed Very confident about that...with a detailed response why listing about 4 reasons which i barely comprehended . The ARW nailed the "non" event event here the other day, it was way west at 12z. That said, I think most mets will wait for all the 0z guidance and more importantly the 0z Euro. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but a lot of the "meso" models run off the same base/same guesses as our beloved NAM. If it goes west or east, so should the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If anything the sfc low off the coast seems to be in a similar position to the 18z run through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CHECK THIS OUT....this is awesome, matt noyes was talking about this being a potential hybrid warm core http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Harwich&state=MA&site=BOX&textField1=41.6918&textField2=-70.0728&e=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Cool, best of luck to you! Where in the area do you live? OK, I just spent a couple of hours fixing up all my stats and found some great stuff. Here is the Update ========================================================================================= Guys - At least for MBY - This will be HISTORIC if I can pull 15" out of this. The reason being: 2 15" Snowstorms within 1 month of each other - 1. January of 1948 Winter had 2 in 8 Days. 2. The UnREAL February of 1969 had 2 (24"+ too) 3. The 2 Historic Blizzards of January and February of 1978 of course had 2 (20"+ of course) Very Close Call in February of 2003. This would be Huge. Huuuuge if it could be pulled off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CHECK THIS OUT....this is awesome, matt noyes was talking about this being a potential hybrid warm core http://forecast.weat...d2=-70.0728&e=1 It has a warm core seclusion. It's not sub-tropical or anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If anything the sfc low off the coast seems to be in a similar position to the 18z run through 24. yup, but the 5h vorticity is slightly different with lower heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the entire island? I have a feeling we are going to get seriously dumped on. Hoping for 18" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 @27hr looks very similar to the 12z to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looks to me like this might be slightly E of 18z, but I could be wrong if it hooks a little late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 yup, but the 5h vorticity is slightly different with lower heights Yeah H5 is a bit different...I'm not sure how to explain it though. The 0z run at 24 isn't as "tucked in" with the trough and such...not sure how you say this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its not east, It looks about the same as 18z ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a feeling we are going to get seriously dumped on. Hoping for 18" here. Anything over 12" is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's SLIGHTLY east but more wrapped up. Should be a great solution nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looks to me like this might be slightly E of 18z, but I could be wrong if it hooks a little late. You are braver than me. I have no idea what it's doing. Feels like it should come west at 5h... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 CHECK THIS OUT....this is awesome, matt noyes was talking about this being a potential hybrid warm core http://forecast.weat...d2=-70.0728&e=1 Yeah, that was showing up I think yesterday, too. Possible blip in the algorithm thingy that sets the forecast? But hey, who knows. I watched the Matt Noyes tech disco... love that shet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looks to me like this might be slightly E of 18z, but I could be wrong if it hooks a little late. yeah. I agree, heights a little different at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 @27hr looks very similar to the 12z to me.. Very similar to 12z IMO, less amped, but probably still a very big hit for all of SNE...don't want to speculate too much tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow....NAM goes bonkers at 36hr. 1.25"+ in S CT/LI in 6hrs. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 33 hours, 39.4/72. 39 hours 18Z: 39/72.1 OR SO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 there is a trend and it's not great if you want to see a snowstorm on the cape. (it's west) meso are leading the way IMO and a very respectable met i p'md (didn't ask him i could quote him) so i will just say that he said to the effect " yes i see 0z globals moving west" and he seemed Very confident about that...with a detailed response why listing about 4 reasons which i barely comprehended . lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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