CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:43 AM, MattdWX said: GFS resolution not high enough to pick out 2 separate low centers so it looks baggy, happens all the time not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I thought the same thing on the 18z run On 1/11/2011 at 3:42 AM, CT Rain said: GFS looks awfully far east with that sfc low given the 500mb setup? no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It feels like we're watching a game...waiting for the big play and yelling BANG! Low goes over the BM roughly not quite wrapped up just yet but getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 congrats..... me? not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Rev Kev is talking in his sleep: "The GFS is garbage... the GFS is garbage... what, more chipmunks?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:40 AM, CT Rain said: I remember 12 or 13 years ago Messenger and I were some of the biggest weenies. Things change... I think you get more perspective and a bit more conservative over time. Absolutely. Sometimes the models nail it days out, and sometimes they bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks similar to 18z, but stronger? Maybe a few miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:44 AM, CapeCodWeather.net said: congrats..... me? not likely. It's not impossible to be honest. A tighter bowling ball rolling east with weaker downstream ridging could cause areas back here some problems and be good for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So much for consensus among the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:42 AM, CT Rain said: GFS looks awfully far east with that sfc low given the 500mb setup? no? I feel like I'm on a time delay through 30 it looked okay to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's like the GFS is just ignoring every single rule of thumb of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well for me the good news is I get decent snow or more no matter what solution today. Would prefer NAM/RGEM but would be ok with GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't even have the GFS updated in front of me yet and reading through the last page is kind of funny and disturbing at the same time Simple answer: wait for the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How many times have we seen this... NAM way amped up, juiced up, and close to the coast while the GFS is much more sane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:44 AM, weathafella said: It feels like we're watching a game...waiting for the big play and yelling BANG! Low goes over the BM roughly not quite wrapped up just yet but getting there. why does anyone care to watch a model that is not prepared for this scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:45 AM, CoastalWx said: Looks similar to 18z, but stronger? Maybe a few miles west. yeah, looks very similar to18z.. but stronger is the key I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:47 AM, CT Rain said: How many times have we seen this... NAM way amped up, juiced up, and close to the coast while the GFS is much more sane. but fails, yea Dec 9 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:45 AM, HubbDave said: Rev Kev is talking in his sleep: "The GFS is garbage... the GFS is garbage... what, more chipmunks?" "see....how many times do i have to say it. why do we even look at this model" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS did this in Jan 2005. Didn't come around until inside of 24 hours. Every other model was creaming us and GFS had 2-4 until it finally caved. It's more robust now but still the same ilk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:47 AM, Typhoon Tip said: why does anyone care to watch a model that is not prepared for this scenario Like what you are saying. If you can remember how did the individual models do handling the dec '05 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:48 AM, CapeCodWeather.net said: "see....how many times do i have to say it. why do we even look at this model" Garbage in ... garbage out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS starts to feel the tug of H5 forcing and is a little south of 18z, in the GOM. Ryan was right, the heights were a little flatter out here and just to the east. Whether it's right, not sure. I do think meso models are probably going to have a say as well, but globals are stable too and I would not completely ignore them. Def has a big difference in outcomes for se mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ryan is in love with the GFS. He's not going to let it go that easy On 1/11/2011 at 3:48 AM, Typhoon Tip said: but fails, yea Dec 9 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:47 AM, weathafella said: Well for me the good news is I get decent snow or more no matter what solution today. Would prefer NAM/RGEM but would be ok with GFS. RGEM would be best. NAM is still a little west for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:49 AM, MaineJayhawk said: Garbage in ... garbage out. lol "Why are we going against the SREF, Euro, and ensembles?" Toss it" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:47 AM, DomNH said: It's like the GFS is just ignoring every single rule of thumb of modeling. below On 1/11/2011 at 3:47 AM, weathafella said: Well for me the good news is I get decent snow or more no matter what solution today. Would prefer NAM/RGEM but would be ok with GFS. Yep On 1/11/2011 at 3:47 AM, wxwatcher91 said: I don't even have the GFS updated in front of me yet and reading through the last page is kind of funny and disturbing at the same time Simple answer: wait for the ensembles Why would we want to wait for a lower resolution model at this stage? On 1/11/2011 at 3:47 AM, CT Rain said: How many times have we seen this... NAM way amped up, juiced up, and close to the coast while the GFS is much more sane. All the time. Here's the better question...how many times in the last five days have the RGEM and NAM gone balls deep on a huge westward low and miserably failed.....about ten times is the answer. Like we've all agreed I think wait for the Euro. It's been dead consistent for 5 runs, whichever way it moves should tell us which way we should be leaning. The RGEM had me in the CCB a couple of times the other day, the NAM had a regionwide blizzard at least once and good snows from the comma head a bunch of times. GFS said no go, Euro pretty much too and was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:49 AM, CoastalWx said: GFS starts to feel the tug of H5 forcing and is a little south of 18z, in the GOM. Ryan was right, the heights were a little flatter out here and just to the east. Whether it's right, not sure. I do think meso models are probably going to have a say as well, but globals are stable too and I would not completely ignore them. Def has a big difference in outcomes for se mass. It's stronger in the upper levles than the 18z run. I don't see why it should be tucked in a bit closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:50 AM, CoastalWx said: RGEM would be best. NAM is still a little west for my liking. Would we get 8+ from NAM? Likely. Would we get it from RGEM? Likely. Would we get it from GFS? Likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 On 1/11/2011 at 3:49 AM, CoastalWx said: GFS starts to feel the tug of H5 forcing and is a little south of 18z, in the GOM. Ryan was right, the heights were a little flatter out here and just to the east. Whether it's right, not sure. I do think meso models are probably going to have a say as well, but globals are stable too and I would not completely ignore them. Def has a big difference in outcomes for se mass. Yeah seeing the GFS flatten heights out here in NE is a bit worrisome. I would take the GFS over the NAM in trying to figure out the overall synoptic setup. However I do think the NAM may be on to something in pulling things a bit further NW given the intense cyclogenesis we're likely to see as that bowling ball heads east. So I'd probably take the GFS and shift the heaviest QPF a bit NW along with the 850/700mb low centers as well. 8"-14" pretty safe call for many areas at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS slightly stronger but overall position of the low very similar...overall not enough change from 18z to go nuts here, need something more than what I just saw, one run cannot sway things, I wanna see the ARW when it starts honing in on the fine details.....tomorrows 12z ARW will be big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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