HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 day 7 and 8 is dec 2002 snow-icestorm to a T. almost identical setups. amazing looking storm system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 OMG day 7 euro is an amazing setup. lol sounds great for snow lovers! I wonder where is Foothills? IIRC You 2 were the ones that alerted us to the great pattern that brought us this past storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 day 7 and 8 is dec 2002 snow-icestorm to a T. almost identical setups. amazing looking storm system. December 4-5, 2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 12z Euro also has some snow of the back-in for a good amount of NC. Also the end of the Euro run, still has an amazing setup. At hour 240, all of NC is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 WOW what a loaded pattern the EURO is showing though the next 10 days. Also liking the blocking showing up in the 7-10 day period near Greenland, although it is further east than it has been. We will see if this feature shows up in the ensembles and later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 day 7 and 8 is dec 2002 snow-icestorm to a T. almost identical setups. amazing looking storm system. Yea it looks like a huge ice storm in the beginning, but than the system phases more fully right on top of us, so it would be verbatim an Ice to Snow system across NC/SC. Plenty of time to watch of course... but here we go again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Just to clarify...I wasn't meaning it was showing a winter storm at 126....that is just how far out the model had made it...I was meaning looking at that chart, the later time-periods were potential-laden. Can someone maybe put a little meaning behind why it looks good after 126? Shortwave moving through with HIGH pressure in place? A system rolling through is great but if there ain't no COLD air peanut butter with the chocolate moisture, we ain't got no Reeses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 day 7 and 8 is dec 2002 snow-icestorm to a T. almost identical setups. amazing looking storm system. Blocking is back too. Now if we can just get HP to build in a bit more and get the whole southern system to trend a bit more south and east, we might be able to sneak a snowstorm out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yea it looks like a huge ice storm in the beginning, but than the system phases more fully right on top of us, so it would be verbatim an Ice to Snow system across NC/SC. Plenty of time to watch of course... but here we go again! I take it with so much moisture it would bring our 850's down? Just looked to me like major ice outside of the mountains. Either way it certainly looked like a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like a bad ice event on the Euro, maybe a bit of snow on the back end. All of this is in NC which is fine with me- keep the ice up there thanks, CAD looks too weak for anything significant down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yea it looks like a huge ice storm in the beginning, but than the system phases more fully right on top of us, so it would be verbatim an Ice to Snow system across NC/SC. Plenty of time to watch of course... but here we go again! Someone can clarify this, but it sounded like a two pronged event. I am guessing verbatim this would cripple someone with ice and then bury them with more ice to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You just have to LOL at the end of the run... pretty much a redux of what just happened in early January with a strong block forming over Greenland, except this time, we have a stronger polar vortex (sub 500dm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 day 7 and 8 is dec 2002 snow-icestorm to a T. almost identical setups. amazing looking storm system. With the QPF the EURO shows someone may be counting power outages in weeks, not days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Blocking is back too. Now if we can just get HP to build in a bit more and get the whole southern system to trend a bit more south and east, we might be able to sneak a snowstorm out of this. Can't wait to see the more detailed images. But this looks pretty awesome from day 7 to 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 When are we talking about a crippling ice storm? I think I missed something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 With the QPF the EURO shows someone may be counting power outages in weeks, not days. Yea this type of setup would mean big-time qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Its going to be interesting to see wht the Euro does. Its teh only one with the trough splitting and part goes into a southwest cutoff. The GGEm has a split too and brings in a southern stream around day 5, and the GFS has mostly just eastern deep trough and cold and dry later next week. I think most on here would prefer to see the Wed. front lay down cold air, but not too much and then have the western system get kicked east along the Gulf coast, thanks to the next northwest trough. That would probably be another winter storm threat, but its a chaotic time right now, just not sure on any models. We don't even know for sure what Monday brings with so many different solutions right now. You know, it just dawned on me reading through here...the two really good chances I've had for 33 and rain, turned out to be frozen precip. I feel like I'm in bazarro world this winter, lol. Not complaining When the blocking gets back set up, off we go again! And having cold after the event..priceless. My pitiful one inch has stayed and stayed around the yard. Good old fashioned 70's/80's storm. I just don't ever want to see a dry slot in a winter storm..ever again, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 12z next Friday I'm at +6c at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 When are we talking about a crippling ice storm? I think I missed something.. Next weekend 21st through the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Next weekend 21st through the 23rd. Oh ok that's what I thought. I saw the setup on the Euro and my jaw dropped a little. But we haven't had a major ice storm in quite a while, and we are kinda over due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 12z next Friday I'm at +6c at the sfc It's really around 12z Sat when the cold comes in. interesting enough Gastonia is right on the edge verbatim through half of the big QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Someone can clarify this, but it sounded like a two pronged event. I am guessing verbatim this would cripple someone with ice and then bury them with more ice to snow. Somewhere in the TN Valley will be an icing event...probably not of the magnitude of western KY/NW TN in 2009...but there is enough qpf to cause some serious problems. There are two or three waves of precip...on the northern fringes there will be some snow but it is too early to say exactly where. Definitely one to pay attention to though...do not like these seeping arctic air masses...going to be difficult to accurately project the icing line on our side of the Apps all the way up to game time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here is to hoping for more snow than ice, though this setup screams ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Everyone remember, there is a lot of model spread, both ensemble wise and between models in this time range- so getting caught up in specifics is probably unwise right now. The 12Z GGEM is utterly and completely different than the Euro as one example. I still think given the teleconnections that a major snow event is somewhat unlikely in the next two weeks, especially the farther south you go. But for NC and SC, we do need to watch for an ice event or two but right now there is a lot of uncertainty. This one may be a lot closer to the event time than the last storm before we can get a handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here's the run down. The weak precip on friday is associated with the HP front. The precip associated with the incoming southern stream s/w starts at 192hr and ends at 210. B/n those frames most of NC get's close to 2 inches of QPF and the 0C 2m temps never get above 0C north of a line from just south of AVL to Charlotte to Greenville. So most of the major NC cities are seeing 2 inches of qpf, likely freezing rain/sleet. Maybe some snow in the foothills/mountains initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 FWIW, the surface freezing line at 180 is along the va/nc border. by hour 192, most of nc is subfreezing with the surface freezing line stuck at the sc/nc border throughout the rest of the system. So it would be a cold rain for the upstate/ga and a crippling icestorm for nc with 1 to 2 inches liquid falling there, mostly when it's subfreezng. Long ways off though and it has plenty of time to trend better..or worse..depending on how you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Somewhere in the TN Valley will be an icing event...probably not of the magnitude of western KY/NW TN in 2009...but there is enough qpf to cause some serious problems. There are two or three waves of precip...on the northern fringes there will be some snow but it is too early to say exactly where. Definitely one to pay attention to though...do not like these seeping arctic air masses...going to be difficult to accurately project the icing line on our side of the Apps all the way up to game time... Yep. I don't like the looks of this already. If the Euro has the southwest cutoff, most likely some folks are going to be facing an ice storm, some a snowstorm, and some both. These cutoff's have meant business this year and the flow is so progressive in the gulf of Alaska they will come east at some point. Its too early to worry on timing yet, but the pieces are there again for a big ticket item. HKY was right , it resembles Dec 2002 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yep. I don't like the looks of this already. If the Euro has the southwest cutoff, most likely some folks are going to be facing an ice storm, some a snowstorm, and some both. These cutoff's have meant business this year and the flow is so progressive in the gulf of Alaska they will come east at some point. Its too early to worry on timing yet, but the pieces are there again for a big ticket item. HKY was right , it resembles Dec 2002 at this point. Ehh. Dont really want a Dec. 2002 all over again, or anything worse. I was only 7 or 8 that storm but I remember loosing power for 5 days, when I lived in Shelby then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Everyone remember, there is a lot of model spread, both ensemble wise and between models in this time range- so getting caught up in specifics is probably unwise right now. The 12Z GGEM is utterly and completely different than the Euro as one example. I still think given the teleconnections that a major snow event is somewhat unlikely in the next two weeks, especially the farther south you go. But for NC and SC, we do need to watch for an ice event or two but right now there is a lot of uncertainty. This one may be a lot closer to the event time than the last storm before we can get a handle on it. Given the recent tendency for the models to move high pressure into new england in the long range, I think odds are increasing of some kind of ice storm/event. Of course the highest chance is in nc but there is a chance of it reaching all the way to ga...especially considering the type of cold airmass that should be in place over the mid atlantic and new england. But as you said, with so much spread, who knows what will actually end up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Everyone remember, there is a lot of model spread, both ensemble wise and between models in this time range- so getting caught up in specifics is probably unwise right now. The 12Z GGEM is utterly and completely different than the Euro as one example. I still think given the teleconnections that a major snow event is somewhat unlikely in the next two weeks, especially the farther south you go. But for NC and SC, we do need to watch for an ice event or two but right now there is a lot of uncertainty. This one may be a lot closer to the event time than the last storm before we can get a handle on it. Understood...most of this is just defining the characteristics of what the model is showing...by no means is it time to forecast such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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