BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The euro says the GFS is smoking crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 True for us, but the way this is trending, from Powerstroke up through Pilot to Big Frosty, It could be a little bit more bigger deal. Like the way you think an talk. Foothills sent me a PM this morning telling me to keep my eyes open for this one in my area. That's all I needed to hear. When that man talks I listen. Robert has done excellent all winter and this last one dead on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The euro says the GFS is smoking crack In what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The euro says the GFS is smoking crack That was the 00z Euro. Being fair, the 00z GFS was smoking crack compared to the 06z GFS. Maybe the models caught onto something and/or it's just a burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The models are all on crack beyond 3 or 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The models are all on crack beyond 3 or 4 days. I agree. I don't believe you can put confidence in any of the models until 48 hours to the storm. We have seen that for the past couple of storms and even including last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The euro says the GFS is smoking crack The 12Z laid the drugs down and is more focused on the Gulf system now. Its 5H is healthy with good southerly flow, but still not a lot of moisture into NC by 84 hours, but it does have some , like the 6z did, and with the damming high , again not strong on that but its there at 1024mb and damming nicely. If it was stronger it would be a much more CAD event, but taken literally its some snow to ice in western NC. The surface freezing is focused right against the Apps and the 850 is around GSO to Forest City to AVL for a while Monday. Its not much QPF at all though. For a while now for some reason all the models (except Canadian) have hardly any moisture coming up with the Gulf low, and until they do start to agree more on that, its not a big deal or even moderate yet. But usually CADS over perform and we haven't really had a High in NY yet with moisture coming at us, so we'll see if the models start to put out more moisture. But with so many s/w coming in right after the Gulf one, there's no single sharp s/w to help consolidate the northeast confluence and maintain good damming, but still could be alittle something on the front end before temps get into the middle 30s around nw NC. It usually takes the actual cold frontal passage to dislodge damming fully, so this is a cold rain for most of us with temps middle 30s in central NC, or atleast thats how it looks so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Somking Crack is not cool folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the GGEM also has some sleet, snow and ZR in western NC and western VA starting Monday morning, and by Tuesday morning has very sig. ZR in the immediate escarpment of the Apps. Then another southern system slides by late week, similar to the GFS today. Overall for most of the Southeast its a big cold rain event, but the chance of ice is still there in far western damming regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The trough digs deeper this run at Day 7 and has it much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The trough digs deeper this run at Day 7 and has it much colder. Its going to be interesting to see wht the Euro does. Its teh only one with the trough splitting and part goes into a southwest cutoff. The GGEm has a split too and brings in a southern stream around day 5, and the GFS has mostly just eastern deep trough and cold and dry later next week. I think most on here would prefer to see the Wed. front lay down cold air, but not too much and then have the western system get kicked east along the Gulf coast, thanks to the next northwest trough. That would probably be another winter storm threat, but its a chaotic time right now, just not sure on any models. We don't even know for sure what Monday brings with so many different solutions right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Its going to be interesting to see wht the Euro does. Its teh only one with the trough splitting and part goes into a southwest cutoff. The GGEm has a split too and brings in a southern stream around day 5, and the GFS has mostly just eastern deep trough and cold and dry later next week. I think most on here would prefer to see the Wed. front lay down cold air, but not too much and then have the western system get kicked east along the Gulf coast, thanks to the next northwest trough. That would probably be another winter storm threat, but its a chaotic time right now, just not sure on any models. We don't even know for sure what Monday brings with so many different solutions right now. Here we are at 72. 1029mb high sits in northern NY while our system is passing by LA. Let's see what happens from here. http://vortex.plymou...t=h72&cu=latest EDIT: Looks similar to the 12z Canadian regarding our high's strength at 1033mb and where it's located. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the new Euro has damming in a good spot 1028 in northern NY, but no moisture until very late. If moisture got in, it would be snow or ice in the CAD areas, but its hard to go against it now, with so much confluence with the southern stream. Still its just something to watch. Its moisture is nothing like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here we are at 72. 1029mb high sits in northern NY while our system is passing by LA. Let's see what happens from here. It now has its primary in the Midwest,like the GFS did. I'd lean toward the midwest being the primary now with the weakening shown on the Euro, and most models not getting enough moisture in here while its Caddy. Still will be a 34 degree rain no matter which model is right I think, for most of western NC. We'll just have to see how much moisture gets in Monday, since thats been the hardest part for the models to handle, and believe it or not NAM will be the one to watch for that this weekend, and GFS. At 108 looks like its going for energy diving along the west coast, with a moderate trough in the East, which could be wintry later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 A phrase we have used a lot this winter, and with merit....at 126....Euro looks 'loaded with potential' with the next system. It now has its primary in the Midwest,like the GFS did. I'd lean toward the midwest being the primary now with the weakening shown on the Euro, and most models not getting enough moisture in here while its Caddy. Still will be a 34 degree rain no matter which model is right I think, for most of western NC. We'll just have to see how much moisture gets in Monday, since thats been the hardest part for the models to handle, and believe it or not NAM will be the one to watch for that this weekend, and GFS. At 108 looks like its going for energy diving along the west coast, with a moderate trough in the East, which could be wintry later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Here we are at 72. 1029mb high sits in northern NY while our system is passing by LA. Let's see what happens from here. http://vortex.plymou...t=h72&cu=latest EDIT: Looks similar to the 12z Canadian regarding our high's strength at 1033mb and where it's located. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_50.gif for a really good cad (translation: one that makes it into mby in ne ga lol) i really like to see a stronger one, 1035 or so...however, iirc this pressure is up from 1024 the other day? 1033 is at least a start A phrase we have used a lot this winter, and with merit....at 126....Euro looks 'loaded with potential' with the next system. note only loaded with potential, but this year we can add 'is living up to potential' lol - anytime i start seeing king euro showing a similar solution several days out i will certainly pay attention last winter had a lot of potential for most of us, but everyone didnt cash in. seems like this year a lot more of us have been cashing in, and big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 for a really good cad (translation: one that makes it into mby in ne ga lol) i really like to see a stronger one, 1035 or so...however, iirc this pressure is up from 1024 the other day? 1033 is at least a start note only loaded with potential, but this year we can add 'is living up to potential' lol - anytime i start seeing king euro showing a similar solution several days out i will certainly pay attention last winter had a lot of potential for most of us, but everyone didnt cash in. seems like this year a lot more of us have been cashing in, and big time Yeah, although there are some, it is hard to find an area that has been left out so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I mean, I literally cannot remember a time when we had such a train of these SW upper air lows that eject our way. Amazing to me.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I mean, I literally cannot remember a time when we had such a train of these SW upper air lows that eject our way. Amazing to me.......... not only that, but we have had the cold air in place - which is almost always the missing ingredient in ga (hence rain and 33 lol). to get these nearly nonstop SW, coming in to cold air, is really a new experience (well since the internet age and we had access to all this data). hopefully it will continue at least another 4-6 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 A phrase we have used a lot this winter, and with merit....at 126....Euro looks 'loaded with potential' with the next system. Agree completely, this winter is the winter that looks to keep on giving. 126 is only 5 to 6 days out guys (and gals). Let's hope this is how it plays out. I am getting too much sleep lately and need something to keep me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 for a really good cad (translation: one that makes it into mby in ne ga lol) i really like to see a stronger one, 1035 or so...however, iirc this pressure is up from 1024 the other day? 1033 is at least a start last winter had a lot of potential for most of us, but everyone didnt cash in. seems like this year a lot more of us have been cashing in, and big time You recalled correctly haha. At least if we see a stronger high or one that is in a more favorable position, then we can hang on the the CAD scenario for a longer period and then you'll be able to get in on something down your way. Going back to last winter, indeed that we had some very close calls, but didn't quite hit the nail on the head with the hammer. This time however you and I have been doing terrific so far this season and we're just getting into the heart of winter. I agree with East that it has been quite a long while since we've had a pattern supporting a parade of storm systems one after another, each having something different from the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well, if we could make the 10 deg 850 mb line the 0 deg 850 mb line at 168 hrs, it might be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 OMG day 7 euro is an amazing setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Just to clarify...I wasn't meaning it was showing a winter storm at 126....that is just how far out the model had made it...I was meaning looking at that chart, the later time-periods were potential-laden. Agree completely, this winter is the winter that looks to keep on giving. 126 is only 5 to 6 days out guys (and gals). Let's hope this is how it plays out. I am getting too much sleep lately and need something to keep me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Just to clarify...I wasn't meaning it was showing a winter storm at 126....that is just how far out the model had made it...I was meaning looking at that chart, the later time-periods were potential-laden. I know...it's still a good ways out...just browsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I am hearing that the Euro looks great (for potential winter weather), especially I-40 through TN, and that there is 1'' of QPF from 156 to 174 and then a BIG 500 cutoff moving out of NM that begins to yield more precip breaking out in TX and AR at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Good Lord....a significant icing event on my side of the Apps from this set up; three surges of it...Snow is great...ice sucks...I am moving to Aruba,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 and the later panels show the low scooting through central GA, transferring to the SC coast and then deepening along the NC coast........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Uggg...Euro next weekend verbatim is a crippling ice storm for most of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Also for anyone on here just "lurking".. no the area of Columbia, SC is not a CAD region generally and we are looking at rain. Someone told me that they overheard someone around here talking about snow here Monday, so needed to put this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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