triadwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well... we're out of school tomorrow, 5 straight days, we're off on Monday for MLK day so 10 straight days off... with pay! They just called school off here again, I really wanted to go. It's going to be our 8th day, and we are going to have to do Saturday school if we get anymore snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Also called off school here... but we have to go on MLK day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Euro isn't bringing enough cold air down with this system =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 18z GFS (and NAM) keeps the door open on ice in the damming region of NC Monday. If the confluence in the northeast gets a little stronger, or if moisture comes in earlier there would be a better chance before the cold gets scoured out. The northern foothills have the best chance and it may be limited just to there as far as NC goes, but this is the type of thing that can trend colder atleast to start. It would still likely change over if the GFS is right on the primary west of the Apps. The Euro was east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Also called off school here... but we have to go on MLK day! its a good thing that the other storm (christmas) was during the holidays. i think there are 4 or 5 built in days around here. with the ice in dec, two days of no school (snow in the north half of the day), followed by this entire week, monday is now a full day (and probaby some of spring break at this rate) 18z GFS (and NAM) keeps the door open on ice in the damming region of NC Monday. If the confluence in the northeast gets a little stronger, or if moisture comes in earlier there would be a better chance before the cold gets scoured out. The northern foothills have the best chance and it may be limited just to there as far as NC goes, but this is the type of thing that can trend colder atleast to start. It would still likely change over if the GFS is right on the primary west of the Apps. The Euro was east of the Apps. after the euro last two months, its sort of hard to argue with it lol. although an apps cutter is over due. it is start trending the right way (ie cold, lol) maybe we can have a real CAD on our hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NWS took freezing rain out of the forecast and replaced it with a chance of and MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. Of course it will change next package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NWS took freezing rain out of the forecast and replaced it with a chance of and Its still early. May trend back to a brief bit of snow to start for you, followed by ice, then rain. If the southern stream is stronger than the models are showing, and it plays out like Euro, I think the odds of your area getting more wintry precip goes way up, but its a tricky situation now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Its still early. May trend back to a brief bit of snow to start for you, followed by ice, then rain. If the southern stream is stronger than the models are showing, and it plays out like Euro, I think the odds of your area getting more wintry precip goes way up, its a tricky situation now. Peeking at the models today, it seems like they are reloading for another event or two. Looks like a decent CAD signal on this panel of the 18Z GFS 01-13-11: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_102l.gif Like I have seen in years past and from learning from you and other great SE Mets...these kind of set ups need to be watched closely. A lot of times, the models do not pick up on true nature of temps until the golden hour. For all we know, the HP may grow stronger or stay in position longer. Who knows... Another threat may be shaping up next weekend as well! Fun times ahead for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS beginning to strengthen our system a good bit at 60 and 66 with a 1016mb low developing, moving it northeastward from southern TX toward AR while a 1028mb high progresses eastward just south of the Great Lakes. By 72 and 78, the low has turned to a more eastward direction across northern LA (slightly weakened) while our high still at the same strengthen is sitting in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the 00z GFS came in with colder and wetter for ne GA and the western Carolinas but not that much more. The damming is clear though, but it may not be enough yet to go sub 32 at the surface, even if there is light precip, but technically the GFS does it for a while, even to Rabun Co. GA. The surface high strengthens from 1020 to 1024 just north of NY. (actually goes from 1024 down to 1020, then back to 1024). It still has the primary well west of the Apps, so it probably wouldn't be a big deal if the GFS works out but if the Euro is closer to correct, the damming would probably be much more substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 the 00z GFS came in with colder and wetter for ne GA and the western Carolinas but not that much more. The damming is clear though, but it may not be enough yet to go sub 32 at the surface, even if there is light precip, but technically the GFS does it for a while, even to Rabun Co. GA. The surface high strengthens from 1020 to 1024 just north of NY. (actually goes from 1024 down to 1020, then back to 1024). It still has the primary well west of the Apps, so it probably wouldn't be a big deal if the GFS works out but if the Euro is closer to correct, the damming would probably be much more substantial. If the Euro comes in colder than its previous run while still holding on to a pretty wet solution, we'll have to start keeping a close eye on it. It was real close to something earlier and it won't take much more of an adjustment to put us here in some ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 They just called school off here again, I really wanted to go. It's going to be our 8th day, and we are going to have to do Saturday school if we get anymore snow. I heard two hour delay. Saturday was fun, we were the first to do it 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 What do you make of this Robert? Potential for some quasi phasing? Something is trying to brew... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_126l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 They just called school off here again, I really wanted to go. It's going to be our 8th day, and we are going to have to do Saturday school if we get anymore snow. Wow. I drove home tonight and while there's a few icy patches on the secondary roads, there's no need to close the schools. Ridiculous. Makes me glad I'm not in high school anymore because making snow days up (when they weren't necessary) sucked. This storm has my eye, but I'm not real hopeful at seeing anything meaningful out of this outside of maybe the foothills in the favored CAD regions. And even that just may be at the onset of precipitation. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Wow. I drove home tonight and while there's a few icy patches on the secondary roads, there's no need to close the schools. Ridiculous. Makes me glad I'm not in high school anymore because making snow days up (when they weren't necessary) sucked. This storm has my eye, but I'm not real hopeful at seeing anything meaningful out of this outside of maybe the foothills in the favored CAD regions. And even that just may be at the onset of precipitation. We shall see. Taking the GFS at face value...it shows another helluva cold shot late next week, with snow. Of course the snow part will change, but it appears the cold shots are lining up again. It is like there is a constant train of cold air. This may shape up to be an amazing winter. At least we have some "oppoturnities" on the table. Curious to see what the EURO has to say tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I know that it's way out there, but it looks like as we begin to close January, some MAJOR cold air settles across the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. for a few days or so and it digs quite deep. There's also the usual fantasy storm by the 252 and 264 hr., which would spell another snowy hit for the southeast but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. EDIT: Beat me to it Rankin haha. I agree that this pattern holds plenty of promises for yet another great winter for the 2010-2011 season. We just need to take them one bit at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I know that it's way out there, but it looks like as we begin to close January, some MAJOR cold air settles across the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. for a few days or so and it digs quite deep. There's also the usual fantasy storm by the 252 and 264 hr., which would spell another snowy hit for the southeast but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. EDIT: Beat me to it Rankin haha. I agree that this pattern holds plenty of promises for yet another great winter for the 2010-2011 season. We just need to take them one bit at a time. Hey there Neighbor!!! I see you are in Gastonia. I am right down the road in Belmont. You know QCWx lives in Gastonia. We have a lot of representation here. AWESOME!! Amen about one bit at a time. Hey...I am just glad we have potential to look at. It's a pure rush. Last winter for me was one I want to forget. SO MANY NEAR MISSES. Thankfully...this winter (so far) has not been that bad. I would be happy if it ended right now...especially after the last few years. Good luck your way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 0z Euro at 72 has our system in TX with neutral troughing taking place. From 96 you can see a CAD signature trying to establish itself with the low in the Gulf and the trough suddenly trying to take on a negative tilt with a 1029mb high near the NE states. However by hr. 120, the high has retreated (again) and we end up losing the CAD in the process, but the track still seems to remain the same from the previous run by continuing to show a Nor'easter eventually developing after the low has traveled up the coast, deepening as it does so. Hope I explained this correctly. 72 (500mb): http://vortex.plymou...t=h72&cu=latest 96 (500mb and 850mb): http://vortex.plymou...t=h96&cu=latest http://vortex.plymou...t=h96&cu=latest 120 (850mb): http://vortex.plymou...=h120&cu=latest On another note, already by Day 7 there is yet ANOTHER shortwave entering the U.S. based on this frame of the Euro: http://vortex.plymou...=h168&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 0z Euro at 72 has our system in TX with neutral troughing taking place. From 96 you can see a CAD signature trying to establish itself with the low in the Gulf and the trough suddenly trying to take on a negative tilt with a 1029mb high near the NE states. However by hr. 120, the high has retreated (again) and we end up losing the CAD in the process, but the track still seems to remain the same from the previous run by continuing to show a Nor'easter eventually developing after the low has traveled up the coast, deepening as it does so. Hope I explained this correctly. 72 (500mb): http://vortex.plymou...t=h72&cu=latest 96 (500mb and 850mb): http://vortex.plymou...t=h96&cu=latest http://vortex.plymou...t=h96&cu=latest 120 (850mb): http://vortex.plymou...=h120&cu=latest On another note, already by Day 7 there is yet ANOTHER shortwave entering the U.S. based on this frame of the Euro: http://vortex.plymou...=h168&cu=latest Yep @240 looks like the Euro is trying to get the party started out in TX. Of course it's 240 hrs out but it sure looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is all snow and ice on the GFS 6z in the triad and most of the foothills/mountains. Big trend to colder surface and 850's with moisture on east side of apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is all snow and ice on the GFS 6z in the triad and most of the foothills/mountains. Big trend to colder surface and 850's with moisture on east side of apps. Are you referring to the 19th storm ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is all snow and ice on the GFS 6z in the triad and most of the foothills/mountains. Big trend to colder surface and 850's with moisture on east side of apps. YES! I guess we are a favorable damming area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 YES! I guess we are a favorable damming area? Can we say Sweet !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Bring it On Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Sorry to pee in everyone's cornflakes, but I just don't see this one as anything more than an annoyance. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little freezing rain to start but with the high sliding off of the coast, we lose the cold air source. No worries, though. With the split flow expected by the end of the month and continued cold in the east, I expect we'll have a few more opportunities. In fact, it looked like the high latitude block (-NAO)was trying to re-establish by late in the forecast period on the GFS/ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Sorry to pee in everyone's cornflakes, but I just don't see this one as anything more than an annoyance. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little freezing rain to start but with the high sliding off of the coast, we lose the cold air source. No worries, though. With the split flow expected by the end of the month and continued cold in the east, I expect we'll have a few more opportunities. In fact, it looked like the high latitude block (-NAO)was trying to re-establish by late in the forecast period on the GFS/ECMWF Yeah did you seen hour 240 of the ECMWF? Cold air in place, some nice blocking, and a monster storm in the gulf..hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Sorry to pee in everyone's cornflakes, but I just don't see this one as anything more than an annoyance. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little freezing rain to start but with the high sliding off of the coast, we lose the cold air source. No worries, though. With the split flow expected by the end of the month and continued cold in the east, I expect we'll have a few more opportunities. In fact, it looked like the high latitude block (-NAO)was trying to re-establish by late in the forecast period on the GFS/ECMWF True for us, but the way this is trending, from Powerstroke up through Pilot to Big Frosty, It could be a little bit more bigger deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 True for us, but the way this is trending, from Powerstroke up through Pilot to Big Frosty, It could be a little bit more bigger deal. Yeah, this is the first time, verbatim that the GFS showed the onset as snow, then to freezing rain, then to rain. The models are definitely going into the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Sorry to pee in everyone's cornflakes, but I just don't see this one as anything more than an annoyance. I wouldn't be surprised to see a little freezing rain to start but with the high sliding off of the coast, we lose the cold air source. No worries, though. With the split flow expected by the end of the month and continued cold in the east, I expect we'll have a few more opportunities. In fact, it looked like the high latitude block (-NAO)was trying to re-establish by late in the forecast period on the GFS/ECMWF just checked the nam and looks like the soundings are marginal, but close to freezing. the real issue is there doesnt seem to be much qpf anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is all snow and ice on the GFS 6z in the triad and most of the foothills/mountains. Big trend to colder surface and 850's with moisture on east side of apps. just wow. the trend indeed is our lovable friend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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