FallsLake Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I think we still have some hope. The 0z GGEM has a 1026 high with 850 line in south Vir. as precip moves through the CAD areas. The 6z GFS has a 1024 high with the 850 line in northern Vir. (at the same time period). So there is a "chance" for this to trend to a classic CAD event (ice storm for somebody). At least this is something to track the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 12Z GFS has the damming high ridging east of the Apps, but shows no precip east of the mountains. Its been doing this a while now, with all the precip staying west of the Apps through Monday. The high north of NY does strengthen a little and if there was precip getting in here, theres a chance it would be ice, but its not showing precip til much later. The 5H looks ok with the lower miss. valley trough, it should get precip in here, but its hard to argue with it continually keep it west of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 12Z GFS has the damming high ridging east of the Apps, but shows no precip east of the mountains. Its been doing this a while now, with all the precip staying west of the Apps through Monday. The high north of NY does strengthen a little and if there was precip getting in here, theres a chance it would be ice, but its not showing precip til much later. The 5H looks ok with the lower miss. valley trough, it should get precip in here, but its hard to argue with it continually keep it west of the Apps Are you really buying into the GFS much right now? I was looking at some upper-air charts this morning, and the GFS was basically getting squashed by the northern branch, and not allowing it to develop into much. While as, the Euro, again, had a well defined Low Pressure, and the CMC wasn't far behind the Euro with a defined system. This wants me to lean a bit more towards the Euro and/or the Canadian at this point. Still quite a bit of time for this thing to possibly develop into something, but I'm just going with a cold rain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Are you really buying into the GFS much right now? I was looking at some upper-air charts this morning, and the GFS was basically getting squashed by the northern branch, and not allowing it to develop into much. While as, the Euro, again, had a well defined Low Pressure, and the CMC wasn't far behind the Euro with a defined system. This wants me to lean a bit more towards the Euro and/or the Canadian at this point. Still quite a bit of time for this thing to possibly develop into something, but I'm just going with a cold rain at this point. The question is the surface precip and when it arrives here. I haven't looked that much at any models yet, I'll wait til after the Euro to see what I think may happen. It will probably continue to change thanks to so much Pac. energy now coming into the picture. If the flow would retrograde a little bit more then I think the chance of something wintry would be higher overall, but even if it comes out in pieces there still might be something wintry for the damming area, but a cold rain is still most likely right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The question is the surface precip and when it arrives here. I haven't looked that much at any models yet, I'll wait til after the Euro to see what I think may happen. It will probably continue to change thanks to so much Pac. energy now coming into the picture. If the flow would retrograde a little bit more then I think the chance of something wintry would be higher overall, but even if it comes out in pieces there still might be something wintry for the damming area, but a cold rain is still most likely right now.. At this point I don't care what kinda of wintry precipitation we get, as long as we get some. Looking at the CMC this morning I noticed still a good bit on CAD. Places like Mt. Airy, possibly the Winston-Salem area would see a few inches of snow, then a change over to freezing rain, then a change to a cold rain. Maybe I'm not taking into something into account, but that's what I basically saw this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I know this if off topic but I was just wondering how this winter ranks in the Mountains as to all time snow.. Seems like they are getting pounded every other day and this has to be one the best ski years ever for the high country.. Has anyone heard how this year ranks?? It's been snowy no doubt, but not record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I could be wrong but 12z CMC looks wintery for west NC and N GA at 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Euro is running....just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 i am paying at least some attention to the models - with all this cold air and snow in place it wouldnt take much for a sneak attack early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Anyone care to chime in on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well it looks like the Euro is still to warm, but not by much. Through the height of the precipitation, western North Carolina is between 0 and 2 degrees Celsius. Probably still an onset of snow/ice/sleet for this area. The Euro also has 2 lows. One right after another, I found this quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I could be wrong but 12z CMC looks wintery for west NC and N GA at 120? 12z CMC says a cold rain for N. GA while from a point at Mars Hill and going northeastward along the Apps. shows snow for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well it looks like the Euro is still to warm, but not by much. Through the height of the precipitation, western North Carolina is between 0 and 2 degrees Celsius. Probably still an onset of snow/ice/sleet for this area. The Euro also has 2 lows. One right after another, I found this quite interesting. If we had kept the look of the Euro at 96 but a bit colder with a stronger CAD, there would have been a better chance for some areas to get in on wintry precipitation but as the next frame shows, the high retreats northeastward at 120 and you're left with a weakening wedge as the low heads up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Anyone care to chime in on the Euro? the Euro is still close, but no cigar. It has a 1028 high in damming position but moves it out by Monday night and Tuesday. Meanwhile it does have a low in the Gulf (weak) and takes it to the Southeast Coast by Tuesday, but again it too avoids giving precip to the damming region, its on either side of the mountains , but hardly any in the damming zone. GFS also avoids precip in the damming zone. Its still worth watching, as it could be a sneaky system if they trend wetter, would be icy in western NC atleast and maybe some snow in the Southern Apps. It goes up the coast deepening rapidly. The timing of all the incoming shortwaves and the main one in the Gulf is still a big question mark but the Euro looks reasonable, in a near miss. Its so close that any small change in timing of features could have a huge difference. If the Gulf system came in quicker, it would probably be another wintry type storm around east Tn, western NC/SC and n. GA but if it waits til later, we'd lose the colder air at the surface and aloft, and would be mostly rain except maybe some ice in the dammng regions, followed by another cold spell. The pattern is very hard to forecast for beyond 3 days. The Euro is back with the southwest cutoff again around day 6 or 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Sure does! the Euro is still close, but no cigar. It has a 1028 high in damming position but moves it out by Monday night and Tuesday. Meanwhile it does have a low in the Gulf (weak) and takes it to the Southeast Coast by Tuesday, but again it too avoids giving precip to the damming region, its on either side of the mountains , but hardly any in the damming zone. GFS also avoids precip in the damming zone. Its still worth watching, as it could be a sneaky system if they trend wetter, would be icy in western NC atleast and maybe some snow in the Southern Apps. It goes up the coast deepening rapidly. The timing of all the incoming shortwaves and the main one in the Gulf is still a big question mark but the Euro looks reasonable, in a near miss. Its so close that any small change in timing of features could have a huge difference. If the Gulf system came in quicker, it would probably be another wintry type storm around east Tn, western NC/SC and n. GA but if it waits til later, we'd lose the colder air at the surface and aloft, and would be mostly rain except maybe some ice in the dammng regions, followed by another cold spell. The pattern is very hard to forecast for beyond 3 days. The Euro is back with the southwest cutoff again around day 6 or 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 the Euro places all its eggs east of the Apps with that being the primary. The GFS does it west of the Apps, but neither model has much precip in the damming zone. The Canadian is the only one that has solid precip and is probably a blend of the two. There's still going to be changes on all the models for the next couple of days before we really know what to expect in the damming area Mon/Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Pattern is way too progressive this go-around for a widespread winter wx event. HP is in hyperdrive to the NE. Without blocking, which we won't get, we need perfect timing, which we don't have. What we need to look for now is big picture stuff...the longer range pattern and so forth. I have a strong suspicion that we're going to get at least a couple weeks off from tracking a legitimate widespread SE winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Pattern is way too progressive this go-around for a widespread winter wx event. HP is in hyperdrive to the NE. Without blocking, which we won't get, we need perfect timing, which we don't have. What we need to look for now is big picture stuff...the longer range pattern and so forth. I have a strong suspicion that we're going to get at least a couple weeks off from tracking a legitimate widespread SE winter storm. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss siginificant ice in the damming regions of western Carolinas to ne GA just yet. Its awfully close on the overall picture there around Mon/Tues. But widespread , your're probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss siginificant ice in the damming regions of western Carolinas to ne GA just yet. Its awfully close on the overall picture there around Mon/Tues. But widespread , your're probably right. where are the most favorable damming areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 where are the most favorable damming areas? I would like that places such as Hickory-ish west. And also the areas around the western NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss siginificant ice in the damming regions of western Carolinas to ne GA just yet. Its awfully close on the overall picture there around Mon/Tues. But widespread , your're probably right. Yeah, I should have clarified better. Damming regions, potentially. Widespread, unlikely, IMO. On another note, I don't hate the look of the long range Euro. It's not SCREAMING storm, but there is potential there. It's definitely not torchy, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 where are the most favorable damming areas? Usually I-85 from GSO to CLT to GSP to AHN and points west is the damming areas. The further west, the more damming in climo. situations. Yeah, I should have clarified better. Damming regions, potentially. Widespread, unlikely, IMO. On another note, I don't hate the look of the long range Euro. It's not SCREAMING storm, but there is potential there. It's definitely not torchy, which is good. I know its not worth mentioning since the Euro will flip at the day 10, but right now its day 10 is a basic setup for what we just went through. There are so many s/w in the flow coming in from the Pac. and Gulf of Alaska, but with cold air basically in the east and central, if the southwest does have a cutoff, it will get booted pretty quickly by the next closed low shown up on the Euro in the Northwest, again this is 10 days out so it will change, but the overall setup could be a repeating one. Only time will tell. Already we've had 2 major Southeast Winter storms, and who knows if this will be a repeating pattern with more to come. I think the odds are it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 That last image there is one pretty map! I think a lot of us would be sitting pretty if that verified. And to Robert's point, I'd be totally fine with a repeating pattern...just as long as the southern stream S/W goes just a bit south and stays in tact. I'm still holding out hope for a 5 day out Euro prog of the Christmas Storm to verify at some point this winter. I think the odds of that are low but greater than other years. Edit: well there were some maps but now they're gone. Maybe I'm seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 That last image there is one pretty map! I think a lot of us would be sitting pretty if that verified. And to Robert's point, I'd be totally fine with a repeating pattern...just as long as the southern stream S/W goes just a bit south and stays in tact. I'm still holding out hope for a 5 day out Euro prog of the Christmas Storm to verify at some point this winter. I think the odds of that are low but greater than other years. I know its not worth mentioning since the Euro will flip at the day 10, but right now its day 10 is a basic setup for what we just went through. There are so many s/w in the flow coming in from the Pac. and Gulf of Alaska, but with cold air basically in the east and central, if the southwest does have a cutoff, it will get booted pretty quickly by the next closed low shown up on the Euro in the Northwest, again this is 10 days out so it will change, but the overall setup could be a repeating one. Only time will tell. Already we've had 2 major Southeast Winter storms, and who knows if this will be a repeating pattern with more to come. I think the odds are it will. Indeed we would if it holds. We just need to have a better setup than what we're looking at with our next system coming into place for the time being. With the way this pattern has been, I wouldn't be surprise if that shortwave coming into southern CA ends up becoming another major winter storm of some sort. Of course, low confidence is to be expected around this time but this winter has proven to be more potent that what most of us thought. I for one am impressed with how well we've done so far this season. We're only around the halfway point and still have the rest of this month, February and a part of March to keep track of all this. The unpredictability of this pattern is enough to throw a good bit of us for a loop when consistently watching the modeling try to get a handle on this, but I say our chances for a repeating pattern after this short break is looking good for now. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It's amazing to me how the winter up to this point has found a way to stay cold in the southeast. It seems that if one index becomes unfavorable, another index will become favorable and pick up the slack so to speak. It's definitely been hard to ignore the persistence of the pattern to repeat itself. The -AO this year has been amazing and I would not have thought we could repeat the negative anomolies from last winter. I wouldn't be surprised if this winter offers up a couple more good chances for a region-wide SE snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 The one thing I really like is that we are starting to get to the point where climo is really going to be in our favor for a winter storm. Usually late Jan. to middle of Feb is when we have our best shots at a big winter storm, now add in the pattern that we've been in (which doesn't look to change anytime soon) and you have the potential for something really good. A lot of folks are going to be quick to point out that it probably won't happen but folks in the MA thought the same thing last year and look what happened after their first big one. With the MJO, NAO and PNA looking to be on our side the sky is the limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 It's amazing to me how the winter up to this point has found a way to stay cold in the southeast. It seems that if one index becomes unfavorable, another index will become favorable and pick up the slack so to speak. It's definitely been hard to ignore the persistence of the pattern to repeat itself. The -AO this year has been amazing and I would not have thought we could repeat the negative anomolies from last winter. I wouldn't be surprised if this winter offers up a couple more good chances for a region-wide SE snowstorm. When I went to the conference I can't remember if it was Wes or another met on here, but they showed a graph about how a -NAO runs in cycles and usually stays negative for a 3-5 year span when it really tanks (IIRC of course). Anyways they hinted that we had just started that cycle so we wouldn't want to jump to any conclusions about last year being different from this year. Seems he was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Very good points Jonathan. The one thing I really like is that we are starting to get to the point where climo is really going to be in our favor for a winter storm. Usually late Jan. to middle of Feb is when we have our best shots at a big winter storm, now add in the pattern that we've been in (which doesn't look to change anytime soon) and you have the potential for something really good. A lot of folks are going to be quick to point out that it probably won't happen but folks in the MA thought the same thing last year and look what happened after their first big one. With the MJO, NAO and PNA looking to be on our side the sky is the limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I know this if off topic but I was just wondering how this winter ranks in the Mountains as to all time snow.. Seems like they are getting pounded every other day and this has to be one the best ski years ever for the high country.. Has anyone heard how this year ranks?? Boone has had 48 inches for the year and Beech Mt has had 105 inches for the year. Both amounts are more than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well... we're out of school tomorrow, 5 straight days, we're off on Monday for MLK day so 10 straight days off... with pay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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