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Upcoming Storm Threats


burgertime

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Wonder how the current snow pack to our north, and north west will effect temps this week and next.

LOL, I just realized it was Wednesday. I was thinking we have a solid week to 8 days to see if models trend colder for Monday but it is actually closer than that!

I'm not going to pay too much attention to anything today and then if there is still some hope come tomorrow afternoon I may begin to take notice. For now I have to find a way to get back into work mode after working from home Monday and Tuesday.

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FWIW -- Looking at JB's update this morning about next week.....

He says a break in the cold is coming before the reload, He expect the next precip maker on the East Coast to have its best snow farther west and for it rain on much of the East Coast in the areas that got the snow with this storm. Time will tell, but there is no blocking next week that will hold cold in and troughs in the Mississippi Valley love to cut storms.

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FWIW -- Looking at JB's update this morning about next week.....

He says a break in the cold is coming before the reload, He expect the next precip maker on the East Coast to have its best snow farther west and for it rain on much of the East Coast in the areas that got the snow with this storm. Time will tell, but there is no blocking next week that will hold cold in and troughs in the Mississippi Valley love to cut storms.

Yea it looks like there will be a relaxing of the pattern...but just on a side note and I know you are simply repeating what was said but I don't know why anyone ever listens to JB. He seems wrong soooo many more times then he is right.

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Yea it looks like there will be a relaxing of the pattern...but just on a side note and I know you are simply repeating what was said but I don't know why anyone ever listens to JB. He seems wrong soooo many more times then he is right.

Not that I listen to Him, But just throwing out another Mets opinion !! I have followed Him for 25-30 years and He really is not that bad, He will tell you he looks for trouble and finds it but when it gets detail time he turns it over to other in house Mets, For He is the Long Ranger. But He has been wrong this winter on long range (But so have most other long range Mets) I don't know why He gets more bashing then any Met in the country ? Nobody can be right 100% of the time. But ever time He's wrong he get's bashed, He's the only Met I've ever seen that suppose to be right 100% of the time.

Not directing this at you either Burger, I totally understand what you're saying too ! :thumbsup:

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Not that I listen to Him, But just throwing out another Mets opinion !! I have followed Him for 25-30 years and He really is not that bad, He will tell you he looks for trouble and finds it but when it gets detail time he turns it over to other in house Mets, For He is the Long Ranger. But He has been wrong this winter on long range (But so have most other long range Mets) I don't know why He gets more bashing then any Met in the country ? Nobody can be right 100% of the time. But ever time He's wrong he get's bashed, He's the only Met I've ever seen that suppose to be right 100% of the time.

Not directing this at you either Burger, I totally understand what you're saying too ! :thumbsup:

Well my problem is just that he seems to choose solutions with little backing. Wasn't this storm not supposed to hit the south? Wasn't the Christmas storm supposed to be an OV special? I haven't been following him long but just in the few years it seems he sticks way to much to his original forecast. Maybe it's just his bias towards the NE, which is fine since the majority of his customers come there...and they are in PA. However I just don't get what his big appeal is and probably never will.

BTW this does not mean I will not immediately jump on the Bastardi bandwagon if he says the south is going to be a big winner.

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Well my problem is just that he seems to choose solutions with little backing. Wasn't this storm not supposed to hit the south? Wasn't the Christmas storm supposed to be an OV special? I haven't been following him long but just in the few years it seems he sticks way to much to his original forecast. Maybe it's just his bias towards the NE, which is fine since the majority of his customers come there...and they are in PA. However I just don't get what his big appeal is and probably never will.

BTW this does not mean I will not immediately jump on the Bastardi bandwagon if he says the south is going to be a big winner.

He is def a NE guy :arrowhead: And he is stubborn about changing his call untill last second ( He admits that) which is where he gets burned alot.. :axe:

But I do like watching to see what his ideas are. But by far my favorite Mets and Pro Forecasters are right here in the se forum !!! :thumbsup: Gotta go to work now, Have a good day !!! :thumbsup:

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Looks to me like the 0 line has moved farther south on the 0z gfs long range. Still has some weird keystone shape in the line over Kentucky at 156 that was not as pronounced as it was before. That really looks like an error to me. those things don't normally make right angle turns do they?

S

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Wow, GFS puts 1.49 inches of rain down in CAE next Tuesday 1/18/11.

I would love to see that total verify :wub:

CAE.....:popcorn:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE

LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY

MOVING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DIG A TROUGH

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY INTO

MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF

COAST STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NC/VA

COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE DEEPENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE UP

THE EAST COAST.

THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY

THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS

TIME...THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION

TYPE BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS THAT A WEDGE COULD DEVELOP

AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN

THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY

AS THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN

BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR

BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE FOR

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF

THE POSSIBLE WEDGE...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 44 TO 62...AND PLAN TO

TREND MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT.-- End Changed Discussion --

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News in Charlotte has "mix?" for Monday. First I have seen of this, most have been saying rain and 50's

Highly unusual to see WSOC predict such a thing considering their conservatism on winter potential around here. I don't think I've ever seen them become the only local news folks to make a call like that this early. Then again, I hardly pay any attention to them so I couldn't guarantee anyone about this.

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I have noticed that after a major snowstorm, TV mets tend to get trigger happy andoverzealous about subsequent snow chances, even when the chances are very questionable. It is interesting to see them go from ridiculously overconservative to overzealous immediately after a major snowstorm.

Well its WSOC, what do you expect? :arrowhead: It seems like they are never right, never.

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I have noticed that after a major snowstorm, TV mets tend to get trigger happy andoverzealous about subsequent snow chances, even when the chances are very questionable. It is interesting to see them go from ridiculously overconservative to overzealous immediately after a major snowstorm.

I've always noticed that too. I think its real. Think how many times we've been staring down the barrel of a real winter storm, only to have some or your really conservative ones play catchup. It happens all the time..then the next small threat and they're actually over doing it. But each their own.

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I've always noticed that too. I think its real. Think how many times we've been staring down the barrel of a real winter storm, only to have some or your really conservative ones play catchup. It happens all the time..then the next small threat and they're actually over doing it. But each their own.

The funniest thing is that they have the high in the middle 40's on Monday. Im no pro met, but there is going to be no mix at 45 degrees. :rolleyes:

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0z GFS looks too far north with this system. Between hours 96 and 108, it's heading ENE toward central AK with a 1023 high sitting on top of NJ. Later on at 126, the high's retreating but a tad stronger (around 1030mb) and our system pushes into western KY.

EDIT: Yep. The low just rockets northward through the OV all the sudden and we're left with some rain.

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0z GFS looks too far north with this system. Between hours 96 and 108, it's heading ENE toward central AK with a 1023 high sitting on top of NJ. Later on at 126, the high's retreating but a tad stronger (around 1030mb) and our system pushes into western KY.

Speed the low up just a bit, direct it just a bit more to the south, trend the hp just a little bit stronger and anchored in NY, and there you have it. We'll see what the other 00z's have to say.

TW

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0z GFS looks too far north with this system. Between hours 96 and 108, it's heading ENE toward central Arkansas with a 1023 high sitting on top of New Jersey.

I see what you mean. However, with the CAD setups, this thing could have a different look come tomorrow or Sat. I tell ya what...that HP is in a GREAT position. At least this bears watching. Also, there is a High pressure over the Dakotas and one in NE Canada. It seems to me that this would shunt the LP from the gulf more S/SE. I am interested to see what the EURO says tonight.

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I've always noticed that too. I think its real. Think how many times we've been staring down the barrel of a real winter storm, only to have some or your really conservative ones play catchup. It happens all the time..then the next small threat and they're actually over doing it. But each their own.

They sure do. Same thing with severe wx. One tornado outbreak and they scare you to death calling for 'em every day. lightning.gif

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I see what you mean. However, with the CAD setups, this thing could have a different look come tomorrow or Sat. I tell ya what...that HP is in a GREAT position. At least this bears watching. Also, there is a High pressure over the Dakotas and one in NE Canada. It seems to me that this would shunt the LP from the gulf more S/SE. I am interested to see what the EURO says tonight.

I also find it hard to see how the GFS shows the moisture making it that far up into Tenn/KY with a string of high pressures from west to east, per the 00Z GFS. Although the HP's are not that strong. Correct me if I am wrong Pro's/Met's. Thanks

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I see what you mean. However, with the CAD setups, this thing could have a different look come tomorrow or Sat. I tell ya what...that HP is in a GREAT position. At least this bears watching. Also, there is a High pressure over the Dakotas and one in NE Canada. It seems to me that this would shunt the LP from the gulf more S/SE. I am interested to see what the EURO says tonight.

Definitely. This run of the GFS struck me as a bit odd regarding what it did with our low by shooting it up north so quickly. Don't know if I can buy into that yet though. We'll see with the next few runs.

In the meantime, after 144, we get a nice blast of colder air settling in for a few days, relaxes a bit, and then ANOTHER shot comes in around the 216 hr. thanks to a high to our NE.

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Definitely. This run of the GFS struck me as a bit odd regarding what it did with our low by shooting it up north so quickly. Don't know if I can buy into that yet though. We'll see with the next few runs.

In the meantime, after 144, we get a nice blast of colder air settling in for a few days, relaxes a bit, and then ANOTHER shot comes in around the 216 hr. thanks to a high to our NE.

Yep, and something is bound to show up sooner or later from the south (Baja?). I am willing to bet come Saturday we have Robert throwing porn model commentary left and right about potential next week. The question is the timeframe. :thumbsup::popcorn:

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I know this if off topic but I was just wondering how this winter ranks in the Mountains as to all time snow.. Seems like they are getting pounded every other day and this has to be one the best ski years ever for the high country.. Has anyone heard how this year ranks??

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Alright. 0z CMC says a bit of ice to start out with for WNC and then snow along the Apps but turning to a cold rain for everyone outside the mountains for most of the day Monday. It has a weak low around 1010mb swinging from central MS to central TN at 120 with a 1026mb high sitting somewhere within southern Quebec and sliding eastward before the low curves NE by hour 144 toward an area just off the coast of Maine at 1005mb .

120: http://www.weatherof...ast/136_100.gif

144: http://www.weatherof...ast/495_100.gif

Precip type: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

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Blacksburg ..... :facepalm:

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

30 PERCENT.

.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE

MORNING. CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN

THE MID 30S.

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE

MORNING. HIGHS AROUND 40. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

I like rain showers lows in the uppers 20s :whistle:

It's ZR Sunday night and rain Tuesday night same temps.

They probably expect rain to end tuesday night before temps drop, If that's the case they should not have chance of showers Wed. morning ?

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