FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Strong 1038 high in New england damming down to Alabama, with temps aloft warming up to I-40. Major ice in that setup in Ga. Its not putting out a lot of QPF thanks to the squeeze play of confluence and the northern Plains low coming in. The storm in Canada has dropped into the 950's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 anyone have qpf for the coastal? 999 off Myrtle Beach is something Ill take all day 0.09" at PGV this run, 850's around -5C. 12z was 0.08", and 0z yesterday was a little under 0.25". ILM is the big winner with 0.65" of QPF, looks like all SN with 850's -3C and surface temps hovering around 0C once it starts. Imagine Jacksonville and MHX are well over 0.25" with the way things look this run, huge hit for the Crystal coast, more so than the event last week. ILM is the big winner this run, and inside 96 hrs, us not so much, maybe a powdery inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is going to be a vicious winter storm across the South next week if the 5H plays out like this. Dont' sweat the surface or qpf, its a bad setup, or good if you love ice and power outages. Snow to ice for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro still has the Carolina Coastal but its quick and more progressive. Some snow, then the texas sharp wave, with a strenghtening high over the Lakes. Also another strong s/w in southern Canada between 120 and 126. Snow in Dallas and southern Ok. Its overspreading Ark and lower Misss. Valley at 132. Snow. Did you see the 0z GFS 156 panel? There is a high pushing out to sea, then one moving in at the same time over the upper north east sectons and one right behind that over the GL. They are not that strong, but would continue to supply cold air east of the apps. Precip is running through the SE (and carolinas) during that time. At 162, the high is weakening and WAA is overspreading the carolinas. Basically, a quick shot of frozen precip then cold rain. I am probably reading this all wrong and using improper terminology, but I figured I would use the early morning hours when the board is dead for you to school me on this, if you have time; Basically, I am asking for you to read this and tell me what I am seeing correctly and incorrectly. See link below. I appreciate any input. Thanks Robert! http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_156l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yep, ATL still marginal but some ice looks more and more likely, from NE GA to the western/central Carolinas, nasty ice event looming, could be very bad from north of AHN to GSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is going to be a vicious winter storm across the South next week if the 5H plays out like this. Dont' sweat the surface or qpf, its a bad setup, or good if you love ice and power outages. Snow to ice for many. Looks horrible indeed from what I'm seeing. I'll be rooting for a colder temperature profile throughout the levels if ice is going to be a threat. I think we can all do without after the headaches with the previous winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Its funny that the Euro has almost a foot of snow painted for coastal NC with good ratios inside of 4 days but the big story is a storm 7-8 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Without question we've seen a colder trend tonight. Much like our previous storm, the snow chances depend heavily on digging the initial wave down into Texas and keeping it intact as much as possible as it treks ENE from there - to provide lift and cold air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Its funny that the Euro has almost a foot of snow painted for coastal NC with good ratios inside of 4 days but the big story is a storm 7-8 days away Tonight's Euro looks pretty awesome for the coast...this reminds me so much of the Christmas storm when the Euro was showing the massive snowstorm, and it was the Euro vs. the world. Great having probably the best model in the world at this timeframe on your side, but hard to have much confidence when the others haven't bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 just wondering if anyone is going to start a thread for this storm if so i say Chezz you brought it home for us last time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Did you see the 0z GFS 156 panel? There is a high pushing out to sea, then one moving in at the same time over the upper north east sectons and one right behind that over the GL. They are not that strong, but would continue to supply cold air east of the apps. Precip is running through the SE (and carolinas) during that time. At 162, the high is weakening and WAA is overspreading the carolinas. Basically, a quick shot of frozen precip then cold rain. I am probably reading this all wrong and using improper terminology, but I figured I would use the early morning hours when the board is dead for you to school me on this, if you have time; Basically, I am asking for you to read this and tell me what I am seeing correctly and incorrectly. See link below. I appreciate any input. Thanks Robert! http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_156l.gif I haven't seen anything but the Euro, in between work ..remodeling the house in some down time. Its funny that the Euro has almost a foot of snow painted for coastal NC with good ratios inside of 4 days but the big story is a storm 7-8 days away I mentioned the coastal. Its quick and further east slightly than the 12z run. The next storm is 5.5 or 6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 just wondering if anyone is going to start a thread for this storm if so i say Chezz you brought it home for us last time!!! I second this. Cheeznado bought amazing fortune to Atlanta the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Memphis has issued a Winter Weather Advisory 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 RAH discussion from last night. Looks like their focus is next monday night. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY... SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AND YIELD THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD FOR SATURDAY- SATURDAY NIGHT -- GENERALLY MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES OR SO FOR HIGHS AND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 FOR LOWS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF REMAINS UNWAVERING IN THE DEPICTION OF THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHARP TROUGH ALOFT AND RESULTANT COASTAL SNOWSTORM FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... WITH AROUND A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT INTO PORTIONS OF THE RAH COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON- SATURDAY EVENING -- ALL OF WHICH WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE ARCTIC HIGH. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS HAD LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM ANY OTHER NWP GUIDANCE IN RECENT DAYS...AND IT REMAINS AN OUTLIER...LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. WE WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO NOT CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...BUT THE SYSTEM STILL CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RELOAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...AND SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY- MONDAY...BENEATH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE EMANATING FROM A MEAN TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER PRECIPITATION EVENT -- A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING -- WITH THE PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY MONDAY NIGHT- TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Beyond the 1/25 threat, the Euro and GFS point to another shot at something, dropping a piece of energy into the SW. So we may have more than one shot at something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 RAH discussion from last night. Looks like their focus is next monday night. I find it heartening that the usually conservative RAH is even mentioning chance of winter storm so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i find it odd that they even mention the coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The NAM 12z is painting a decent little snow event maybe 2 to 3" across LIT to MEM, and lighter as you go east across TENN into western NC mtns. Starting Thursday and then sweeping quickly east. Hardly any precip at all in most of NC east of the mtns, all of SC or most of GA, as been progged a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks to me this favors the western part of the state, especially the mountains/foothills. The high will be sliding east as this is coming up the coast, I just don't get a good feeling for central/eastern NC. We (central/eastern NC) have to hope the high doesn't move out as fast or the SW comes in quicker or a combination of both. It will be funny if the eastern part of NC/SC get brushed by the low the Euro is showing and get's a couple of inches and then Tuesday storms hits the western part of the state. RAH discussion from last night. Looks like their focus is next monday night. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RELOAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...AND SOUTHEAST CANADA SUNDAY- MONDAY...BENEATH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE EMANATING FROM A MEAN TROUGH ALOFT FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER PRECIPITATION EVENT -- A HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING -- WITH THE PROBABILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT BY MONDAY NIGHT- TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The NAM 12z is painting a decent little snow event maybe 2 to 3" across LIT to MEM, and lighter as you go east across TENN into western NC mtns. Starting Thursday and then sweeping quickly east. Hardly any precip at all in most of NC east of the mtns, all of SC or most of GA, as been progged a while now. The 6z NAM seemed to bump amounts up and the 3z SREF also had a couple of inches painted in a widespread fashion for the northern 1/2 of TN 12z NAM seemed to lower the amounts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The NAM 12z is painting a decent little snow event maybe 2 to 3" across LIT to MEM, and lighter as you go east across TENN into western NC mtns. Starting Thursday and then sweeping quickly east. Hardly any precip at all in most of NC east of the mtns, all of SC or most of GA, as been progged a while now. Is the lighter qpf in middle tennessee due to the restructuring of the low pressure? We've been seeing this for several runs now... Nashville has been on the fringe of several decent events this year, and I'd love to be square in the center of one... but I guess we'll have to wait for another in this parade of shortwaves for our 4+ inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks to me this favors the western part of the state, especially the mountains/foothills. The high will be sliding east as this is coming up the coast, I just don't get a good feeling for central/eastern NC. We (central/eastern NC) have to hope the high doesn't move out as fast or the SW comes in quicker or a combination of both. It will be funny if the eastern part of NC/SC get brushed by the low the Euro is showing and get's a couple of inches and then Tuesday storms hits the western part of the state. Yep, I was thinking the same thing. Sounds like a WidreMann special - snow on either side of him and nothing in the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 My latest thoughts including the potential coastal snow Saturday night. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/coastal-sections-may-see-some-snow-this-weekend-bigger-storm-possible-next-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nashville just issued a Winter Weather Advisory for 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks to me this favors the western part of the state, especially the mountains/foothills. The high will be sliding east as this is coming up the coast, I just don't get a good feeling for central/eastern NC. We (central/eastern NC) have to hope the high doesn't move out as fast or the SW comes in quicker or a combination of both. It will be funny if the eastern part of NC/SC get brushed by the low the Euro is showing and get's a couple of inches and then Tuesday storms hits the western part of the state. That woul dnot be funny, but it would be typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ...PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER... ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 tonights NAM is extremely dry across TN, AL, GA and the Carolinas. Hardly any snow at all, or any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 tonights NAM is extremely dry across TN, AL, GA and the Carolinas. Hardly any snow at all, or any precip. Bone dry. In all actuality, the system has looked north on radar all day. I can't count the number of clippers (forecast 4-5 days out as nice snows) here that eventually just went north of the area. I've learned to take this type of system as bonus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ah, the storm that wasn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 With the NAM's run tonight its hard to think we can squeese out 1-2" here. I think what is happening in Middle Tennessee is that the energy is being split apart and running North/South of BNA. You can see this on the 6Z NAM vs Tonights 00Z Run. You can see how 00Z tonight you can see it split @ H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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