WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Haha! I thought you were reading books tonight or something?! . I'm watching Die Hard With a Vengance. Good movie to kill time while awaiting the 0Zs. I am, and doing some math refresh also... The wife is using the MBP atm, so I am forced on the PC, without the gif software to make a loop, but if folks look at the 0z NAM at 72hrs compared to the 18 and 12z runs, all valid 0z Saturday, there is a sig trend towards a deeper backside wave. The 12z run had the 552 dm isohypse (line of equal geopotential height) just clipping northeast KS, the 18z run took that to northeast OK, and the 0z run now has it firmly entrenched in OK. To put this into perspective, the 0z NAM at 84 hrs has the 540 and 546 dm isohypses in extreme southern KY and southern TN respectively, while the 12z European had 540 dm heights into central AL/MS, and 546 almost touching Mobile Bay at this time, big difference. But the trend in the NAM is evident as the beginning stages of this potential event start to come into it's "box." 0z 72 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_072m.gif 18z 78 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_078m.gif 12z 84 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_084m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I am, and doing some math refresh also... The wife is using the MPB atm, so I am forced on the PC, without the gif software to make a loop, but if folks look at the 0z NAM at 72hrs compared to the 18 and 12z runs, all valid 0z Saturday, there is a sig trend towards a deeper backside wave. The 12z run had the 552 dm isohypse (line of equal geopotential height) just clipping northeast KS, the 18z run took that to northeast OK, and the 0z run now has it firmly entrenched in OK. To put this into perspective, the 0z NAM at 84 hrs has the 540 and 546 dm isohypses in extreme southern KY and southern TN respectively, while the 12z European had 540 dm heights into central AL/MS, and 546 almost touching Mobile Bay at this time, big difference. But the trend in the NAM is evident as the beginning stages of this potential event start to come into it's "box." 0z 72 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_072m.gif 18z 78 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_078m.gif 12z 84 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_500_084m.gif Very interesting. So you're saying there's a chance! It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. You have a better chance than me of seeing anything out of this. I hope we continue to see things trend favorably anyway... If not, there's always next week. Enjoy the math. I always hated math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 besides the the very outside possibility for us immediate coastal folks on saturday their really isnt anything on the table. if trends continue things will liven up tomorrow I imagine Ok thanks. I mostly lurk here and enjoy reading everyone's opinions and interpretations of the models and what's going on. Most people get mad or don't post when it doesn't affect TBY which is wrong IMO. I'm just trying to learn this stuff a little at a time and every post helps even if it does not directly effect me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Very interesting. So you're saying there's a chance! It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. You have a better chance than me of seeing anything out of this. I hope we continue to see things trend favorably anyway... If not, there's always next week. Enjoy the math. I always hated math. Even if we do get a coastal graze, we are too far inland even here at PGV for this type of track, as we want something across N FL-S GA. Coastal areas do much better in this setup with development off the east coast of FL, the farther east you go the more QPF, and that is given we do actually see a passage close enough to sling some moisture back, which is in doubt. In order for this to be a sig storm here in the east, we need the trough to go Neg over the FL panhandle or there roundabouts, the 12z Euro went neg off the SE coast, FL/GA, that is too far east for us and would kick it ots. That is a step though in the right direction as the 12z run from yesterday did not take on a neg tilt, rather neutral off the SE coast, baby steps... Most likely scenario is we see the Euro meet the other guidance in the middle, which would imply too far offshore for anything. However, we are starting to see a general trend towards the EC, but the question is does the EC trend also, and towards a less favorable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I am guessing GFS 0z is down again nationwide? Anyone else having anytrouble not showing any upper air graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 In order for this to be a sig storm here in the east, we need the trough to go Neg over the FL panhandle or there roundabouts, the 12z Euro went neg off the SE coast, FL/GA, that is too far east for us and would kick it ots. That is a step though in the right direction as the 12z run from yesterday did not take on a neg tilt, rather neutral off the SE coast, baby steps... If you guys down east don't bring this one home, it won't be from a lack of effort! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I am guessing GFS 0z is down again nationwide? Anyone else having anytrouble not showing any upper air graphics You can get it here - http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z GFS - upper wave diving into Idaho at hr90 looks much healthier compared to today's earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z GFS is a no-go for the coastal Carolina special. Even the Northeast snowstorm is relatively minor, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like an ice storm setting up for N. Ga. around hr 153/156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like an ice storm setting up for N. Ga. around hr 153/156. You can actually see it at the 150 mark if you go back and look at the bars starting to bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A little sad to see limited blocking @ 150HR on the GFS. Healthy gulf system with trailing vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looks like an ice storm setting up for N. Ga. around hr 153/156. I noticed that, too. It doesn't last long as we quickly warm up at the surface and aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is mostly a rain storm from 150-168 hrs. We need a good soaking rain like this. I hope this stays rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not a bad look on the GFS with the 2 healthy waves diving down into the SW, but the blocking over the NE must be stronger in order for us to hang on to the cold air. Potential for copius gulf moisture with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm laughing at the 00z GFS because the 500mb pattern looks great... yet it spits out some sort of garbage solution at the surface. It really honestly doesn't know what to do with the multiple short-waves in the western US. I'm pretty sure any pro met can tell you this setup looks much better than what the GFS is outputting beyond that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A little sad to see limited blocking @ 150HR on the GFS. Healthy gulf system with trailing vort. See map above... we have plenty of blocking... even at 192 hours, this is a classic setup for a Southeast Special... pay much more attention to how the 500mb fields look than the surface plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Strong CAD signal at hr 156 with decent QPF. Something to watch. Ice...ugh. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_156l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm laughing at the 00z GFS because the 500mb pattern looks great... yet it spits out some sort of garbage solution at the surface. It really honestly doesn't know what to do with the multiple short-waves in the western US. I'm pretty sure any pro met can tell you this setup looks much better than what the GFS is outputting beyond that time. See map above... we have plenty of blocking... even at 192 hours, this is a classic setup for a Southeast Special... pay much more attention to how the 500mb fields look than the surface plots. Those are good points you brought up Phil. The 5H feature looks terrific for something interesting for the SE, yet the GFS fails to match this with the surface data output. Something tells me that this may take a while before it corrects this (if it ever does). Reminds me of how the NAM was having trouble of matching its 700mb/omega feature with the 850 plots for our past winter event at one point IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Whoa, the 00z Canadian is much colder with snow breaking out in similar areas as the last storm. I guess Phil882 was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Whoa, the 00z Canadian is much colder with snow breaking out in similar areas as the last storm. I guess Phil882 was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Canadian is handling the waves quite favorably...sending the 1st vort max into central Texas, then east into central / northern Alabama, and keeping it largely intact through the trip....whereas the GFS sends the vort max into Texas, but completely washes it out as it moves NE into Arkansas with a deeping vort coming in behind it. The Canadian solution is more robust and provides more cooling in the upper levels to support snow on the northern portion of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Canadian is handling the waves quite favorably...sending the 1st vort max into central Texas, then east into central / northern Alabama, and keeping it largely intact through the trip....whereas the GFS sends the vort max into Texas, but completely washes it out as it moves NE into Arkansas with a deeping vort coming in behind it. The Canadian solution is more robust and provides more cooling in the upper levels to support snow on the northern portion of the precip shield. This goes to prove once again that the shortwaves are all over the place and the models cannot get a clue on them. One thing for certain from tonights runs are they are showing colder solutions and if that can stay consistent, then we will see one of those shortwaves reel in a winter storm for a widespread area of the SE. Like Cheez aluded to, as well as Foothills, next week should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 shortwaves are all over the place I have mentioned this fact over the past couple days in that the Euro H5 panels looked like a fireworks show for the duration of the run, 0-240 hrs, with a literal buffet of parcels coming into play and interacting. Even with the backside wave behind the Friday system that may have some coastal potential, one has to question where that is currently, the Bering Sea... Data coverage is sparse, and as to the ingest, maybe over Russia that put the Euro on to this. ECMWF initialization information is proprietary in nature, compared to NCEP which is of public record. Most of the basis for why the Euro is such a good model revolves around how well the initialization is, in addition to the higher resolution, who knows, maybe they have a hook up on a crab boat off AK atm we do not know about, or connection in the USSR necep does not have. Not much change through 72 hrs, looks like a non-event for NE by their standards, 1-3", 2-4, maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 UKMet has a robust wave in Texas Sun night...from there, it looks like a lot of warming takes place, but likely icy east of the Apps with a 1039 mb High over the Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Euro still has the Carolina Coastal but its quick and more progressive. Some snow, then the texas sharp wave, with a strenghtening high over the Lakes. Also another strong s/w in southern Canada between 120 and 126. Snow in Dallas and southern Ok. Its overspreading Ark and lower Misss. Valley at 132. Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 anyone have qpf for the coastal? 999 off Myrtle Beach is something Ill take all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 By the way, for early next week, tonight's UKMet is much farther south with the upper wave / sfc low compared to this morning's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 964 mb low in eastern Canada at 144, with a strong damming high In New York, and a gulf low spreading snow across the Deep South, up to Atlanta and southern TN. Theres a strong northern Plains low thats about to absorb the southern Low it appears. All in all, it still has the threat for the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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