griteater Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How many runs has the Euro showed this for coastal SC? That is Saturday night, right? TIA! At least the last 2 Euro runs show precip in coastal SC/NC with upper level temps supportive of snow. Not sure if boundary layer temps / surface temps would be supportive of snow (GFS says yes). This morning's Euro run had 0.34 QPF on Sat for Wilmington, with the bulk on Sat aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm assuming we're looking for east of I95, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At least the last 2 Euro runs show precip in coastal SC/NC with upper level temps supportive of snow. Not sure if boundary layer temps / surface temps would be supportive of snow (GFS says yes). This morning's Euro run had 0.34 QPF on Sat for Wilmington, with the bulk on Sat aftn. Great, thanks so much! I will be keeping an eye on this. I missed out the last time, maybe I can get some snow this round! Normally to get the white stuff here, we have to have a low 100 miles off the coast or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 How many runs has the Euro showed this for coastal SC? That is Saturday night, right? TIA! watching with interested eyes, these little sliders are what usually make us happy down here. would make up for the past 2 screw jobs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm assuming we're looking for east of I95, correct? As of now, you need to be on the coast or very near. The Outer Banks might be the best place. But a westward trend could put you and I in the game, so we'll have to watch it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18z gfs is way ots at hr 108...I actually thought it was going to be a decent setup looking at the 5h maps but that's the reason I'm an amateur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like the 18z GFS not really wanting to precipitate on anyone. Not really surprised..but the coast does diverse a nice snow or two, here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thanks superjames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 the 18z gfs in the longer range is taking forever to move the next system across the country around d6-8 i guess its that low pressure north of maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Taking air samples at 39k feet on the way to Cali. Drove home from Charlotte after this same trip last year in 8 inches of snow. I'll be back this Saturday. Dare I ask for a surprise repeat?? Btw...temp -20, wind speed 500 knots. Lol. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 As of now, you need to be on the coast or very near. The Outer Banks might be the best place. But a westward trend could put you and I in the game, so we'll have to watch it! Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Saw wow answered it, but I had my own question does the vorticity control the lowering of heights? Never mind just googled and found this great link: http://www.theweathe...rts/500/basics/ That's a good site, I've had that link on my site for a long time. Great information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 wow just saw the jma. not too far off the euro really, aloft. it basically has a bilzzard on day 7 lol. starting to look like next tuesday is probably the best chance for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 HKY i used to have a link to the JMA got a new pc is there any way you could post one for me i so thanks a bunch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 HKY i used to have a link to the JMA got a new pc is there any way you could post one for me i so thanks a bunch!! http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_foreign_models.htm here u go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 thanks alot http://www.wxcaster....eign_models.htm here u go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Sorry I couldn't help myself: HA! Great stuff. Just messin' Cheez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Unfortunately the jma is about as reliable as the wooly worm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 there are a couple more from the 18z run that look interesting, but this was the best, not bad though as none of the members have showed anything here for the past 4 runs, that ended with 18z though p005 was runner up, but heavier precip was offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 there are a couple more from the 18z run that look interesting, but this was the best, not bad though as none of the members have showed anything here for the past 4 runs, that ended with 18z though p005 was runner up, but heavier precip was offshore Too far east for us western folks but you guys down in the east might benefit from something like this. Sure would be nice to see a storm that gets everyone in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 there are a couple more from the 18z run that look interesting, but this was the best, not bad though as none of the members have showed anything here for the past 4 runs, that ended with 18z though p005 was runner up, but heavier precip was offshore All trends start at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 All trends start at 18Z. and end at 0z If anything, we are seeing a slight trend towards the Euro solution, but to early to say if it will be that, which I doubt :-( 15z SREF has several members that are very Euroish with the energy and deepness of the trough, not just the ARW members. 18z GFS ens mean actually puts down a trace event here, and when looping it against the 12 and 6z mean, it is trending. Back to the books, I have a lot of reading to do tonight, and will likely be up for the early 0z runs atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Unfortunately the jma is about as reliable as the wooly worm Didn't the JMA do ok the last two storms? I thought I remember it being pretty close to the tract and storm, just too much QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Didn't the JMA do ok the last two storms? I thought I remember it being pretty close to the tract and storm, just too much QPF. Yeah I think it did okay. However if the jma was right half the time i'd have 50" of snow by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Did they move the topic or something? Nobody has posted in 1 1/2 hours? Just wondering if I am missing something. Usually there is a post every couple minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Yeah I think it did okay. However if the jma was right half the time i'd have 50" of snow by now I think it's good with phasing solutions with in the 2-4 day range...or it seems to be anyways. They all blend together and of course you only remember the model that really nailed the storm. Still remember the NOGAPS nailing the DC storm last December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Did they move the topic or something? Nobody has posted in 1 1/2 hours? Just wondering if I am missing something. Usually there is a post every couple minutes Nate, Nate, Nate....there aint nothin' goin' on buddy. Give it a couple days. If there's still a threat, you'll see more posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Did they move the topic or something? Nobody has posted in 1 1/2 hours? Just wondering if I am missing something. Usually there is a post every couple minutes besides the the very outside possibility for us immediate coastal folks on saturday their really isnt anything on the table. if trends continue things will liven up tomorrow I imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z NAM tells NE what storm chilly fog boobies for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 0z NAM tells NE what storm chilly fog boobies for everyone! Haha! I thought you were reading books tonight or something?! . I'm watching Die Hard With a Vengance. Good movie to kill time while awaiting the 0Zs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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