HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is the kind of crap we always see at day 10. I'd love to see it come to fruition, but you will never see this kind of prog on a 24 hour forecast map. Of course, I'm being overly dramatic using the word "never", but it so rarely ever makes it into the near term. Anyway, the Euro has really been building the cold air up in Canada, so who knows. It'll be interesting to watch, that's for sure. It's never likely for the actual PV to be sitting that far south. It's just notable the euro is showing it. It has been showing a cold dome of -30 to -40 temps heading towards the CONUS for several runs now in the extended. Below is the setup I was referring to back in 96. This pattern would shut this state down for a week, legitimately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's never likely for the actual PV to be sitting that far south. It's just notable the euro is showing it. It has been showing a cold dome of -30 to -40 temps heading towards the CONUS for several runs now in the extended. Below is the setup I was referring to back in 96. This pattern would shut this state down for a week, legitimately. What was the big storm in 1996? I around for it, nor do I remember back that far. Some details please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The most interesting thing to me on the euro is the mother load of cold air at the US/CAN border day 10. It has some -40C 850mb contours which is nuts. If that PV were to stall out over the border up there, it would set us up for the mother of all overrunning icestorm patterns. In fact, my favorite storm of all time had a similar setup (feb 1, 96). I agree today's Euro might be the strongest arctic outbreak I've ever seen on the models since following them. It doesn't have quite enough ridging out west to keep pushing it bodily into the US fully though, but its 10 days. If it did though, it would end up being a huge deathmaker. Hate to say that, but cold like that kills a lot of people. I remember the 1989 and 1985 outbreaks very well. I'm not sure what the 850's were on that, but already the Euro has been having 1050 and 1060 highs lately and with -40 at 850, if that were to come into the US it would be bad news. La Ninas are known for amp. patterns. Also, like HKY said if it stalled to our nw some, we'd be in a doozy of a winter pattern, one we actually wouldn't want. The overrunning side would be severe ice storms. I'd be getting a little nervous if the Euro kept showing anything remotely like this the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Taken verbatim Robert, what kind of temps would we be looking at in the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I agree today's Euro might be the strongest arctic outbreak I've ever seen on the models since following them. It doesn't have quite enough ridging out west to keep pushing it bodily into the US fully though, but its 10 days. If it did though, it would end up being a huge deathmaker. Hate to say that, but cold like that kills a lot of people. I remember the 1989 and 1985 outbreaks very well. I'm not sure what the 850's were on that, but already the Euro has been having 1050 and 1060 highs lately and with -40 at 850, if that were to come into the US it would be bad news. La Ninas are known for amp. patterns. Also, like HKY said if it stalled to our nw some, we'd be in a doozy of a winter pattern, one we actually wouldn't want. The overrunning side would be severe ice storms. I'd be getting a little nervous if the Euro kept showing anything remotely like this the next few days. The day 10 euro map has a 1050 high coming down towards eastern Montana and precip starting to break out over the TN Valley. It also has a 120kt jet streak over the area just starting to develop. So it's recognizing the significance if this were to actually happen. But again, it's day 10, so it's hard to take too seriously. But this is a message board so I thought it was notable to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is the kind of crap we always see at day 10. I'd love to see it come to fruition, but you will never see this kind of prog on a 24 hour forecast map. Of course, I'm being overly dramatic using the word "never", but it so rarely ever makes it into the near term. Anyway, the Euro has really been building the cold air up in Canada, so who knows. It'll be interesting to watch, that's for sure. Considering how this winter has gone it would not be surprising at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I can't access the temperature profiles or precip on the Euro, but the projected track of the surface low coming into NW Alabama from East Central TX may be a snow producer for northwestern TN and a good chunk of Kentucky. It seems that this system was also shown on the GFS a couple of days ago for a few runs (if my memory serves me correctly) before disappearing. Might be something to watch for the I-40 north folks this week. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 http://tinyurl.com/4bwhkby Here ya go! What was the big storm in 1996? I around for it, nor do I remember back that far. Some details please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I can't access the temperature profiles or precip on the Euro, but the projected track of the surface low coming into NW Alabama from East Central TX may be a snow producer for northwestern TN and a good chunk of Kentucky. It seems that this system was also shown on the GFS a couple of days ago for a few runs (if my memory serves me correctly) before disappearing. Might be something to watch for the I-40 north folks this week. IMO I would like to see an I-40 special again. I felt really left out on this one, but the I-85 guys needed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What was the big storm in 1996? I around for it, nor do I remember back that far. Some details please? I couldn't find anything on Feb 1 of 1996, like HKY referenced, but here's the effects of the big January blizzard of that year in NC: Edit: Since we all know this is really an NC/SC blog anyway, the effects on other states don't really matter! Kidding, kidding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Taken verbatim Robert, what kind of temps would we be looking at in the south? It would get super cold if it came down completely, arctic high and all. But we'd need a really tall PNA ridge out west for that, so far thats not happening, but something to watch. I would however watch Saturday night in the TEnn Valley across. Northern parts of Ms, Al, Ga and the western Carolinas and maybe much of NC and Tn, as the next wave diving far west may take the low road. Temps will be very close, shown now are a little too warm, but just something to watch. The next system as well, the exact same thing. And then the big potential outbreak. Far from boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I couldn't find anything on Feb 1 of 1996, like HKY referenced, but here's the effects of the big January blizzard of that year in NC: Edit: Since we all know this is really an NC/SC blog anyway, the effects on other states don't really matter! Kidding, kidding... I would love to see that, I'm in the 8-14" range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 feb 96 was a big ice to snowstorm followed by an arctic outbreak. there was damaging ice from the mountains to the coastal plain.i think it was most memorable for me just b/c of the insane damage it caused. not that i want that again, but the storm itself would be fun to relive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The day 10 euro map has a 1050 high coming down towards eastern Montana and precip starting to break out over the TN Valley. It also has a 120kt jet streak over the area just starting to develop. So it's recognizing the significance if this were to actually happen. But again, it's day 10, so it's hard to take too seriously. But this is a message board so I thought it was notable to discuss. I totally agree. It's fun to discuss the possibilities. It's very interesting to pontificate the resulting effects of something that dramatic happening. It'll be intriguing to watch it develop (or dissolve) over the coming days. Like burgertime said, this winter's done some interesting stuff already, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone think some snow may be possible tonight, especially in Northern NC? Just throwing it out there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernUpstateSC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 feb 96 was a big ice to snowstorm followed by an arctic outbreak. there was damaging ice from the mountains to the coastal plain.i think it was most memorable for me just b/c of the insane damage it caused. not that i want that again, but the storm itself would be fun to relive. I remember that storm well here in upstate sc as well. We had freezing rain and sleet followed by 4-8 inches of snow across the area and the power went out for 3 days. Two small kids with no power or running water for 3 days and only a kerosene heater. We decided to by a generator right after that storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 feb 96 was a big ice to snowstorm followed by an arctic outbreak. there was damaging ice from the mountains to the coastal plain.i think it was most memorable for me just b/c of the insane damage it caused. not that i want that again, but the storm itself would be fun to relive. I believe that storm we had 4-6 inches on top of the ice for that storm. IIRC correctly it stuck around for a really long time as well. I was like 13 though and those storms back then kind of blend together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It would get super cold if it came down completely, arctic high and all. But we'd need a really tall PNA ridge out west for that, so far thats not happening, but something to watch. I would however watch Saturday night in the TEnn Valley across. Northern parts of Ms, Al, Ga and the western Carolinas and maybe much of NC and Tn, as the next wave diving far west may take the low road. Temps will be very close, shown now are a little too warm, but just something to watch. The next system as well, the exact same thing. And then the big potential outbreak. Far from boring. Hopefully a lower road than last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone think some snow may be possible tonight, especially in Northern NC? Just throwing it out there.. It's snowing hard in Martinsville right now. This thread being about the big one coming; I've watched all of the modeling for the recent pattern of storms that have been more Northern mid Atlantic and I have usually been on the 0 line at the NC/VA border and then watched it progress steadily southward the closer it gets. That strictly anecdotal however, I have no facts to back it up Looking at the 0 line for this setup you can really see a large mass of warm air coming in from the west until it reaches Eastward and there seem to be some dynamics resisting it from completely warming the E/SE the way it seems to do to the Rockies. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's snowing hard in Martinsville right now. This thread being about the big one coming; I've watched all of the modeling for the recent pattern of storms that have been more Northern mid Atlantic and I have usually been on the 0 line at the NC/VA border and then watched it progress steadily southward the closer it gets. That strictly anecdotal however, I have no facts to back it up Looking at the 0 line for this setup you can really see a large mass of warm air coming in from the west until it reaches Eastward and there seem to be some dynamics resisting it from completely warming the E/SE the way it seems to do to the Rockies. S Good to hear. I would at least like to see some more snow, even if it doesn't accumulate to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, the Triad seemed to uncharacteristically caught off guard by this one. Roads are not as plowed and clear as the Christmas storm. Despite the claims of DOT battling and defeating the Christmas storm, the facts are the temps never went significantly below freezing, there was no sleet, the ground was warm when the snow started and the day after was well above freezing. My street was completely clear by late afternoon on the 26th and never saw a city truck. A three inch snow with some sleet followed by cold temps stops this area in its tracks no matter what DOT says. Not to mention that they really haven't figured out how to plow. I've watched year after year on 5 lane roads in High Point. Instead of pushing it to the sides they actually plow it onto the center turn lane. For days afterward the melt runs across the road and refreezes at night. They also have a disquieting habit of suddenly stopping plowing a lane just over a hill or around a curve. Surprise!!!! Mother nature does most of our road clearing and when she is in a bad mood we just have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The day 10 euro map has a 1050 high coming down towards eastern Montana and precip starting to break out over the TN Valley. It also has a 120kt jet streak over the area just starting to develop. So it's recognizing the significance if this were to actually happen. But again, it's day 10, so it's hard to take too seriously. But this is a message board so I thought it was notable to discuss. A 1050mb high? What's the current USA record holder for strongest HP if anyone knows offhand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A 1050mb high? What's the current USA record holder for strongest HP if anyone knows offhand? I think it's something around there like 1052 or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think it's something around there like 1052 or something like that. No, I think it's somewhere in the 1060's or 1070's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know its OT and not our storm but is anyone seeing whats about to happen to northeast NJ , NYC and New England? Even for them this could be a total bomb. Pressures are dropping rapidly now. We'll be seeing this is the news I think. I won't be surprised to see Manhattan with over 20". More just northeast of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know its OT and not our storm but is anyone seeing whats about to happen to northeast NJ , NYC and New England? Even for them this could be a total bomb. Pressures are dropping rapidly now. We'll be seeing this is the news I think. I won't be surprised to see Manhattan with over 20". More just northeast of there. Boston under a blizzard warning and calling for 12-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A 1050mb high? What's the current USA record holder for strongest HP if anyone knows offhand? 1064 mb (excluding Alaska) is what my meteorology textbook says. It was recorded at Miles City, Montana in December 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 1064 mb (excluding Alaska) is what my meteorology textbook says. It was recorded at Miles City, Montana in December 1983. Wow, I was way off. But dang, that is some colllllld weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow, I was way off. But dang, that is some colllllld weather. I wonder what temps would be here with that kind of a high with all the current snow cover in the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Boston under a blizzard warning and calling for 12-16. The NAM is much wetter than that, but thats a safe call, but the option is it will be much higher. Esp. in CT. and central Mass, the eastern sections may have mixing problems at first. I won't be surprised if from Manhattan to just west of Boston gets over 20" with some places pushing 30". going to be some thunder with snow rates 3" to 4" an hour in spots. On pressures, i think I read that Russia had a 1080 somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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