Upcoming Storm Threats

[Shawn]

I've noticed over the little bit of time I've been looking at weather models that the GFS isn't that terribly bad outside 192 hours with it's arctic air predictions, but the storms & precip always flip-flop. The Euro is always going to be the higher resolution beyond those 192 hours and usually nails a pattern on the head and is really good with storm tracks 5-6 days out, sometimes even more.

Anyway, our tax money goes to the code of these American models etc, so why can't they increase the resolution and basically make the GFS like the Euro? Is there a funding issue, lazy, lack of knowledge, anything?

[Weather Czar]

Disagree somewhat- the CMC taken verbatim would be a bit of snow on the front end in GA but then it's all rain as the CAD high is not being reinforced as it slides off the coast. So at most a wet inch with a hard time sticking with rain thereafter. Eastern TN and the mountains, could be a different story, but that is often the case.

Soryy, When i refer to N GA I mean the extreme north in the Mtns. But would not that low cranking as it runs up I-95 keep the Mtns of the 3 states in the cold air?

[Weather Czar]

I've noticed over the little bit of time I've been looking at weather models that the GFS isn't that terribly bad outside 192 hours with it's arctic air predictions, but the storms & precip always flip-flop. The Euro is always going to be the higher resolution beyond those 192 hours and usually nails a pattern on the head and is really good with storm tracks 5-6 days out, sometimes even more.

Anyway, our tax money goes to the code of these American models etc, so why can't they increase the resolution and basically make the GFS like the Euro? Is there a funding issue, lazy, lack of knowledge, anything?

LOL.. one word Government!

[Cold Rain]

Euro is rolling. This is the most important euro run all afternoon.

[Weather Czar]

Euro is rolling. This is the most important euro run all afternoon.

What about the one that runs out of Robert's Basement?

[WeatherNC]

Euro is rolling. This is the most important euro run all afternoon.

Big run, no doubt... If the EC shows the development again, something is up. I could consider two Euro runs in a row that show something at this range, as outliers, but 3 runs in a row, and within 5 days, that is hard to ignore. Here is hoping it holds the course, and if anything, we have seen a slight trend in that direction today from the 12z runs, but not much so it is still all alone. A general consensus would indicate a weak area of lp forming on the tail end, but too far ots to give us anything, and that seems the most likely scenario imo.

[Cold Rain]

Looks similar to the 0Z through 48, although it's hard to tell looking at the crappy eWall site's 24 hour increments.

[FoothillsNC]

What about the one that runs out of Robert's Basement?

what ?! This run so far looks like an "anafront" where theres just enough overrunning behind the arctic frontal passage, so from southern Ks, northern Ok, and points due east are in line for very quick snow. Really quick though so QPF is limited. Western Tenn, Ky, nrn ARK have the best qpf maybe .25" but I haven't studied it that much. Even nrn Miss, Al and GA get flurries through 84. The storm goes out to sea, mostly missing the NE.

[WeatherNC]

way OTS, oh well, next...

[Poimen]

way OTS, oh well, next...

yep, it looks like the next systems kicks it right out.

[Cheeznado]

way OTS, oh well, next...

Actually this run has a few inches of snow for far eastern NC LOL.....

[FoothillsNC]

At 90 hours to 102 hours a new s/w diving very far south causes Southeast Coastal development, gives coastal Carolinas some light snow. At 108 hours, the low is 1000 mb about 150 miles off ILM, several inches of snow for ne SC and eastern NC

At 120, the coastal NC is drifing out (looks like a good snow eastern NC!) and then a strong cutoff over the southern Rockies.

[Cold Rain]

This is more like it. Back to our normal mode of chasing 7+ day possibilities again. We need a pocket of convection racing east across the Gulf coast states, prior to the low forming out to sea.

[Cold Rain]

144 is going to show a huge winter storm for someone in the S/SE!

[Rankin5150]

Big run, no doubt... If the EC shows the development again, something is up. I could consider two Euro runs in a row that show something at this range, as outliers, but 3 runs in a row, and within 5 days, that is hard to ignore. Here is hoping it holds the course, and if anything, we have seen a slight trend in that direction today from the 12z runs, but not much so it is still all alone. A general consensus would indicate a weak area of lp forming on the tail end, but too far ots to give us anything, and that seems the most likely scenario imo.

The great thing (in terms of not buying into the solutions right now) is the trend for these to change (for the better-if you love winter weather) as we get closer. i think Robert (Foothills) summed it all up with the discussion about all the shortwaves. Interesting times ahead to see how this unfolds, even if we do not have a storm (with solid consensus) to track!

[FoothillsNC]

Snowstorm City across the Deep south at 144 hours and beyond. Maybe icestorm in Ga at 156 after snow to start. Great setup up with high pressure in Plains and the Northeast, the Northeast becomes dominate and damming at 156.

[Weather Czar]

what ?! This run so far looks like an "anafront" where theres just enough overrunning behind the arctic frontal passage, so from southern Ks, northern Ok, and points due east are in line for very quick snow. Really quick though so QPF is limited. Western Tenn, Ky, nrn ARK have the best qpf maybe .25" but I haven't studied it that much. Even nrn Miss, Al and GA get flurries through 84. The storm goes out to sea, mostly missing the NE.

LOL. Looks like this one is running at Robert's house today! Major southeast snowstorm

[FoothillsNC]

Unbelievable depth of the low pressure in Canada, thats blocking our high. I can't tell fully, but it looks like maybe 956mb

[oconeexman]

Snowstorm City across the Deep south at 144 hours and beyond. Maybe icestorm in Ga at 156 after snow to start. Great setup up with high pressure in Plains and the Northeast, the Northeast becomes dominate and damming at 156.

Not to butt in but are we on some kind of schedule here with storms? Get a storm and wait 2 weeks and get another. If so I hope she holds through MARCH!

[FoothillsNC]

LOL. Looks like this one is running at Robert's house today! Major southeast snowstorm

Haha. Taken literally its snow to ice, the temps aloft warm esp in SC and GA and really NC right at the last, TN stays mostly snow. Its a gulf coast crawler, with major blocking and a tremendous deep low in Eastern Canada...don't recall one that deep. The damming would be phenemenal in that setup. Its almost a week out though, so we'll see if it has any support from the Ensembles. Certainly wouldn't want a long duration ice storm and temps in the upper teens or 20's with something like that. Ugly.

[Cheeznado]

Snowstorm City across the Deep south at 144 hours and beyond. Maybe icestorm in Ga at 156 after snow to start. Great setup up with high pressure in Plains and the Northeast, the Northeast becomes dominate and damming at 156.

Still worried about the position of the surface high so far north for major ice here, the surface temps on the Euro are well above freezing in ATL during the precip. Also, I do not see major snow here- 850s too warm as the precip moves in. Verbatim this is good for NC, but here in GA I would really like to see better CAD with the high centered further south. Calling this run a "major deep south snow" is somewhat of a stretch right now IMO.

[Cold Rain]

Unbelievable depth of the low pressure in Canada, thats blocking our high. I can't tell fully, but it looks like maybe 956mb

Let that sucker sit and spin up there for a few days. If it does, we're golden. Strong HP in the NE, plenty of strong confluence, LP forming in the deep south... Very good setup for snowy, icy weather in the SE. I can get onboard with a setup like that.

[FoothillsNC]

Just looked back through the run, and it takes the coastal NC storm and develops it and gets sucked into the Eastern Canada vortex, so if that can actually work to that depth (has to be overdone though) then good blocking would occur on the next storm. It would force the Rockies or plains wave south to the Gulf coast, thats usually whats happened int the past. Going to get interesting if this run isn't a fluke.

[Rankin5150]

Haha. Taken literally its snow to ice, the temps aloft warm esp in SC and GA and really NC right at the last, TN stays mostly snow. Its a gulf coast crawler, with major blocking and a tremendous deep low in Eastern Canada...don't recall one that deep. The damming would be phenemenal in that setup. Its almost a week out though, so we'll see if it has any support from the Ensembles. Certainly wouldn't want a long duration ice storm and temps in the upper teens or 20's with something like that. Ugly.

So I assume you are PBP on the Euro? You say NC being last for the warm to take over? Are you reading prolonged snow, with change to ice, taking this run into account? Thanks

[Weather Czar]

Just looked back through the run, and it takes the coastal NC storm and develops it and gets sucked into the Eastern Canada vortex, so if that can actually work to that depth (has to be overdone though) then good blocking would occur on the next storm. It would force the Rockies or plains wave south to the Gulf coast, thats usually whats happened int the past. Going to get interesting if this run isn't a fluke.

Its not too far from the Canadian, just a little slower.

[FoothillsNC]

Still worried about the position of the surface high so far north for major ice here, the surface temps on the Euro are well above freezing in ATL during the precip. Also, I do not see major snow here- 850s too warm as the precip moves in. Verbatim this is good for NC, but here in GA I would really like to see better CAD with the high centered further south. Calling this run a "major deep south snow" is somewhat of a stretch right now IMO.

I'm bad to take liberties with the actual runs. Usually if the eastern Canada vortex is strong, the models play catch up later downstream, meaning the Gulf coast system will probably have more cold air to work with than shown. We have been in patterns like this that trend colder with the ttemps, but thats all based on the Vortex in the Northeast or eastern Canada being slow and strong. It would force colder air south, more than Op. models show. As it its though, it still looks like cold enough to start even in ATL as probably snow, but quick to go to ice there. Another liberty I took was the qpf looks a little light on the Gulf storm, but anyway its just something to watch, and not get to worked up over. You have to admit, the pattern this year when we had blocking was a good one, that may be coming back (may be just a fluke or transitory too--who knows yet). I'd rather have no storm though than a 1035 high under those circumstances though,damming us in with major ice.

[Cheeznado]

I'm bad to take liberties with the actual runs. Usually if the eastern Canada vortex is strong, the models play catch up later downstream, meaning the Gulf coast system will probably have more cold air to work with than shown. We have been in patterns like this that trend colder with the ttemps, but thats all based on the Vortex in the Northeast or eastern Canada being slow and strong. It would force colder air south, more than Op. models show. As it its though, it still looks like cold enough to start even in ATL as probably snow, but quick to go to ice there. Another liberty I took was the qpf looks a little light on the Gulf storm, but anyway its just something to watch, and not get to worked up over. You have to admit, the pattern this year when we had blocking was a good one, that may be coming back (may be just a fluke or transitory too--who knows yet). I'd rather have no storm though than a 1035 high under those circumstances though,damming us in with major ice.

But will the CAD end up stronger than the Op run? This -NAO is weaker (only about a -1) and is east-based. Therefore the Op run's forecast of the surface HP in the vcty of Maine seems reasonable to me. If the center of the high is up there then the ATL scenario would probably be: a quick burst of snow that does not stick, then a period of marginal ice with temps rising to about 34. NE GA up to NC does need to watch out for a pretty major ice event perhaps.

[SnowNiner]

Still worried about the position of the surface high so far north for major ice here, the surface temps on the Euro are well above freezing in ATL during the precip. Also, I do not see major snow here- 850s too warm as the precip moves in. Verbatim this is good for NC, but here in GA I would really like to see better CAD with the high centered further south. Calling this run a "major deep south snow" is somewhat of a stretch right now IMO.

Cheez is like Debbie Downer....Wha, wha, wha, whaaaaaaaa......(zoom in to Cheez' frowny face). The 12Z Euro seems like the best news we've heard since the last storm really. Not because the potential storm but because of the set up it produces. Good to hear. Now let's get a couple more days with that solution on the runs....maybe to the 5 day range and we'll be in business. That seems to be the EURO's money timeframe. The details we can work out later. I want to see a big LOW spinning up there in Canada there ay!!

[HKY_WX]

It's still hard to take this seriously, meaning the setup, until we go another few days. There are literally 3 to 4 major s/w's coming into the picture from friday to tuesday. Going to be an eventful model watching week.

[FoothillsNC]

But will the CAD end up stronger than the Op run? This -NAO is weaker (only about a -1) and is east-based. Therefore the Op run's forecast of the surface HP in the vcty of Maine seems reasonable to me. If the center of the high is up there then the ATL scenario would probably be: a quick burst of snow that does not stick, then a period of marginal ice with temps rising to about 34. NE GA up to NC does need to watch out for a pretty major ice event perhaps.

Its just a setup right now, it could change. The Euro has waffled a lot run to run lately. LIke HKY said there's a ton of vorts coming into the flow from the GOA next few days, so I wouldn't take this run too seriously yet. It has had the strong damming high and a lot of cold air in the midsection to the East though for several runs, so thats ups the winter storm chances a little in my mind.