burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z looks colder for this weekend so that's the first step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It didn't look that far off from the 6z vort maps To me the 60hr 12Z GFS 500mb Vort map looks much further south and stronger than the 66hr 6Z 500mb vort map... am I wrong? Of course it does look similar to the 0Z i guess.... I'm looking at this: Model Trends Eitherway it still looks to suppress the system out to sea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 To me the 60hr 12Z GFS 500mb Vort map looks much further south and stronger than the 66hr 6Z 500mb vort map... am I wrong? Of course it does look similar to the 0Z i guess.... I'm looking at this: Model Trends Eitherway it still looks to suppress the system out to sea... I don't think it's stronger as much as it's just faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Our next rainstorm came through really dry on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 BTW looks like the GFS is hinting at real potential next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It didn't look that far off from the 6z vort maps There are some sig differences this run at H5 compared to previous, most notable between 90 and 102 hrs, with the second piece of energy. At 90 hrs, this run has that parcel in AR, compared to the 6z which had it over IA and SD. Also, the height fields are lower as a result of this over the lower MS Valley. At 102 the vort is coming into the SE, very similar to the 0z run, but unlike 6z. The Euro is much more bullish with this piece, and looks nothing like the GFS even at 90 hrs, and especially at 102. HPC prelim disco gives the 0z EC a token 20% weight, and states that while extreme, it is just inside the plausible envelope with 10-20% of its ens members showing some support. To be honest guys, this is a real long shot, and I would not be surprised to see it vanish with the 12z run. I would like to see other support at this range, especially from the various ens members, and I do not. That tells me the model is an outlier atm, and while it could, and I emphasize could, be on to something, the odds are stacked against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 BTW looks like the GFS is hinting at real potential next week. The 0z GFS had this thing pegged as an ice storm, but the 12z GFS looks colder. Anyways, I'm off to class, so I'll see what the GFS does with this later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 BTW looks like the GFS is hinting at real potential next week. thats the one I am watching, but it may be just a repeat of whats happening this week. We could usea strong 50/50 or -NAO right now to help us, without it we run the risk of Ohio Valley runners. BTW , this storm on Friday has dwindled to nothing for the Carolinas, literally. Many won't even get a drop of rain from it. The NAM and GFS are trace to zero amounts over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 thats the one I am watching, but it may be just a repeat of whats happening this week. We could usea strong 50/50 or -NAO right now to help us, without it we run the risk of Ohio Valley runners. BTW , this storm on Friday has dwindled to nothing for the Carolinas, literally. Many won't even get a drop of rain from it. The NAM and GFS are trace to zero amounts over a large area. Robert I know this is streching it but the Friday storm that is dry for us? what do you think for NVa. DC Area. ?? if you know ? if out of area your working don't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Before the truncation period, the GFS has a good setup at 144 to 168 hours, but its only worth mentioning because its had a similar setup on the previous runs and the ECMWF has a similar setup too. With strong confluence in eastern Canada , decent PNA out west and strong digging s/w in the mid section , thats usually a good setup this time of year, but no guarantees yet. The upper temps would warm across the Southeast, depending on exact arrangement but strong damming would be there for ice, but before any alarms go off we'll need a few runs and the Euro to have the same basic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Robert I know this is streching it but the Friday storm that is dry for us? what do you think for NVa. DC Area. ?? if you know ? if out of area your working don't worry about it. They'll get a quick overrunning snow starting late Thursday ending early Friday. Its a very fast mover, qpf is limited maybe 1 to 3" , probably 4" max or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 thats the one I am watching, but it may be just a repeat of whats happening this week. We could usea strong 50/50 or -NAO right now to help us, without it we run the risk of Ohio Valley runners. BTW , this storm on Friday has dwindled to nothing for the Carolinas, literally. Many won't even get a drop of rain from it. The NAM and GFS are trace to zero amounts over a large area. You hit the nail on the head regarding the system next week. We are going into a weak east based NAO for a while but this means the center of the high producing the CAD on the 00Z Euro/Euro ensembles and 12Z GFS is centered way up in northern New England or southern Canada, so it's an ice situation at best for most with the better frozen precip threat as you go farther north. I think we will have to wait until February at the soonest for the blocking to really reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 There are some sig differences this run at H5 compared to previous, most notable between 90 and 102 hrs, with the second piece of energy. At 90 hrs, this run has that parcel in AR, compared to the 6z which had it over IA and SD. Also, the height fields are lower as a result of this over the lower MS Valley. At 102 the vort is coming into the SE, very similar to the 0z run, but unlike 6z. The Euro is much more bullish with this piece, and looks nothing like the GFS even at 90 hrs, and especially at 102. HPC prelim disco gives the 0z EC a token 20% weight, and states that while extreme, it is just inside the plausible envelope with 10-20% of its ens members showing some support. To be honest guys, this is a real long shot, and I would not be surprised to see it vanish with the 12z run. I would like to see other support at this range, especially from the various ens members, and I do not. That tells me the model is an outlier atm, and while it could, and I emphasize could, be on to something, the odds are stacked against it. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You hit the nail on the head regarding the system next week. We are going into a weak east based NAO for a while but this means the center of the high producing the CAD on the 00Z Euro/Euro ensembles and 12Z GFS is centered way up in northern New England or southern Canada, so it's an ice situation at best for most with the better frozen precip threat as you go farther north. I think we will have to wait until February at the soonest for the blocking to really reload. You may be right, i have no idea how our chances are really going to play out from now til February. I did notice a lot though recently on both GFS and ECMWF that strong cutoffs are everywhere. Who ever ends up on the right sides of these, at the right time and with the cold air still very plentiful over the continent, I'd say small geographic regions are going to be getting major winter storms. Something is going on with the amount of cutoffs and the strength of them, that the models are only hinting at now, but I don't know if it will be anyone in the Southeast or Midatlantic, lower Plains...but options are def. on the table for major snowstorms with cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 They'll get a quick overrunning snow starting late Thursday ending early Friday. Its a very fast mover, qpf is limited maybe 1 to 3" , probably 4" max or so. Thanks for answering my question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You may be right, i have no idea how our chances are really going to play out from now til February. I did notice a lot though recently on both GFS and ECMWF that strong cutoffs are everywhere. Who ever ends up on the right sides of these, at the right time and with the cold air still very plentiful over the continent, I'd say small geographic regions are going to be getting major winter storms. Something is going on with the amount of cutoffs and the strength of them, that the models are only hinting at now, but I don't know if it will be anyone in the Southeast or Midatlantic, lower Plains...but options are def. on the table for major snowstorms with cutoffs. Yes, the snow we get from cuttoffs are harder to try and forecast in the longer range since they can form in any sort of NAO regime and do not rely on blocking necessarily. If get another big storm it may be from one of those types of setups which are more likely once you get closer to Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS fantasyland looks mighty cold with systems being pushed towards the Yucatan and Cuba. Isn't that the first sign that we will be getting a major winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS fantasyland looks mighty cold with systems being pushed towards the Yucatan and Cuba. Isn't that the first sign that we will be getting a major winter storm? Its probably better to take it one system at a time. The next potential system for the Southeast (after Thur night/Fri) is probably the Monday/Tuesday system. The pattern is so chaotic now that every run will probably do something different with the many s/w coming from the Gulf of Alaska. No real warming though, probably at or below normal in temps, except maybe a day or 2 between systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 anyone having "access denied" going to the NCEP site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 anyone having "access denied" going to the NCEP site? I'm having the same problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 anyone having "access denied" going to the NCEP site? Robert, it's down Nation wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Yes. You think the chaotic pattern did it? Maybe it's getting ready to digest the new special data for the 0z runs. anyone having "access denied" going to the NCEP site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Robert, it's down Nation wide. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 They'll get a quick overrunning snow starting late Thursday ending early Friday. Its a very fast mover, qpf is limited maybe 1 to 3" , probably 4" max or so. Another nickle and dime event for DC Metro it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol check out 204 on the 12z GFS that is some flooding right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Another nickle and dime event for DC Metro it seems. after last year, they're due for some chump change. lol check out 204 on the 12z GFS that is some flooding right there. wouldn't that be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 thanks. It's model chaos to the extreme! J/K... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cmc has a great track for next Tuesday for e tn western nc and n ga. Temps look a little warm but I would be that's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol check out 204 on the 12z GFS that is some flooding right there. The best fantasy solution Ive seen today was at 360 or so off the 6z gfs. Had a HECS with 950ish pressure. Thats like cat 2-3 hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cmc has a great track for next Tuesday for e tn western nc and n ga. Temps look a little warm but I would be that's wrong. Disagree somewhat- the CMC taken verbatim would be a bit of snow on the front end in GA but then it's all rain as the CAD high is not being reinforced as it slides off the coast. So at most a wet inch with a hard time sticking with rain thereafter. Eastern TN and the mountains, could be a different story, but that is often the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.