MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 good god if the euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 0z Euro looks to be real close to giving someone a wintry event at the 120 hour, but has our storm a bit too far off the coast for mine and other folks living further west liking unless you live closer to the system. Someone correct me on that if I'm wrong. Well, it gives ILM and MYR 3" of snow...which is almost never good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 However, it is snowing in the 85 corridor in SC/NC at the end of the Euro's mid range run(12z-18z next MON). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well, it gives ILM and MYR 3" of snow...which is almost never good for us. However, it is snowing in the 85 corridor in SC/NC at the end of the Euro's mid range run(12z-18z next MON). Ah I see. I don't have access to the rest of the data from the Euro regarding QPF totals and such. Otherwise I would have mentioned it on my previous post. Thanks for explaining the precipitation part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 for the 2nd storm that scrapes the outer banks for euro qpf outer banks .75-1.25 moorehead city to edenton east to swanquarter .25-.75....25 towards moorehead city and edenton line. the .75 at the swanquarter line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 for the 2nd storm that scrapes the outer banks for euro qpf outer banks .75-1.25 moorehead city to edenton east to swanquarter .25-.75....25 towards moorehead city and edenton line. the .75 at the swanquarter line lol had to be a crazy run for you to wander in here! Seriously though this is yet another different solution spit out by the Euro. Like Brandon mentioned earlier it's model madness at it's most extreme this week. 12z will probably have yet another solution for this weekend and next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 good god if the euro is right I'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 On day 6 /Sunday you have another weak wave of LP along LA/gulf coast that ends up over the southern Apps, with cold enough 850's in NC/TN seems to me this would generate some frozen precip. weird seeing it come out of LA straight north, hopefully Im reading it right, maybe just some overruning. Here is day 6 & day 7 850's. Maybe a met can iterput day 6-7 better for us this morning. Verbatim with qpf it might be flurries. Sfc temps are borderline and the qpf is like .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why do a lot of posts contain the term "posted image" in place of where a posted map should be? Why won't the images show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why do a lot of posts contain the term "posted image" in place of where a posted map should be? Why won't the images show? When a user uploads an image via the editor (as opposed to linking the image) and then quotes that, instead just copying the HTML text it simply sees it as a file name...which I believe then comes up as posted image....I think that's what you're referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 When a user uploads an image via the editor (as opposed to linking the image) and then quotes that, instead just copying the HTML text it simply sees it as a file name...which I believe then comes up as posted image....I think that's what you're referring to. Just noticed my post earlier had done that. Oh well, probably best to just attatch link next time. Burger where is the cutoff line on precip off of 0z euro for day 5. How far inland did it even show a trace of precip. My guess is it never makes it back as far west as 95, would that be correct ? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It just saves bandwidth to do it that way. I would rather see it do that than show me the same quoted image 5 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Just noticed my post earlier had done that. Oh well, probably best to just attatch link next time. Burger where is the cutoff line on precip off of 0z euro for day 5. How far inland did it even show a trace of precip. My guess is it never makes it back as far west as 95, would that be correct ? thanks On day 5 it's a line from Rockingham to Rocky Mt. also extends about the same width down South Carolina. RDU is just a little to far west it looks like verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 When a user uploads an image via the editor (as opposed to linking the image) and then quotes that, instead just copying the HTML text it simply sees it as a file name...which I believe then comes up as posted image....I think that's what you're referring to. Yes, that's exactly what I was talking about. I've always wondered about it. Thanks very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 On day 5 it's a line from Rockingham to Rocky Mt. also extends about the same width down South Carolina. RDU is just a little to far west it looks like verbatim. THANK YOU for the message on how to set up the obs! Owe ya one! Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wow, this thread got dead quick. I can see why though...no blocking or negative NAO in the foreseeable future so probably no storm in the foreseeable future. Hopefully around the end of January/early February we can get it back. I'm not satisfied with the snow I got. I'm snow greedy!! I'm thinking of moving to Boston though to get in on some of those bombs. Man that's depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wow, this thread got dead quick. I can see why though...no blocking or negative NAO in the foreseeable future so probably no storm in the foreseeable future. Hopefully around the end of January/early February we can get it back. I'm not satisfied with the snow I got. I'm snow greedy!! I'm thinking of moving to Boston though to get in on some of those bombs. Man that's depressing. Don't count anything out quite yet. The fact is the models are all over the place right now. We are probably going to be in a holding pattern this week and next of surprise storms. Too much model inconsistency to really expect or discredit the possibilities right now. No one was expecting any ice last night yet it showed up for folks to the north. It's the middle of Jan. in a cold pattern, with border line temps you can sometimes score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I agree with Burger. We are in a pattern were all the sudden something could pop up in the 100 to 150 hour range or even earlier. I think weve been spoiled with the length we had to track some of our storms this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Don't count anything out quite yet. The fact is the models are all over the place right now. We are probably going to be in a holding pattern this week and next of surprise storms. Too much model inconsistency to really expect or discredit the possibilities right now. No one was expecting any ice last night yet it showed up for folks to the north. It's the middle of Jan. in a cold pattern, with border line temps you can sometimes score. I hear ya Burger and I'm not getting the sun tan lotion out or anything! But I guess what I'm saying is from a synoptic pattern (from what I understand) there's not much reason to believe a winter storm will pop; other than it's January. 2-3 weeks ago everyone was a flutter over the set up that included, the "double blocking pattern", polar vortex, HIGH pressure in the midwest, and a general overall favorable setup. That's not here now. I'm not giving up on the winter, I'm just giving up on an actual storm until the set up improves. To me we have to have a good set up in the SE to have a chance. I honestly don't remember the last surprise storm that just creeped up within a few days; most are sniffed out a week ahead. Sometimes, the models lose specifics and bring them back just in time, but the thought is there several days in advance from what I recall. Hopefully we'll re-establish the blocking pattern at the very least to keep the storm track suppressed into February; when we usually have the best storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I found out today that if we have any more snow days, we'll make them up over spring break That sucks.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I agree with Burger about the possibilites! This is mid Jan and climo always favors us. Something will pop up! Although...I have been SPOILED with tracking all these previous storms. My wife is like "WTH is wrong with you. I figured you would be tracking something with it being mid Jan". LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I found out today that if we have any more snow days, we'll make them up over spring break That sucks.! We had to do that last year. Fortunately, I'm out of school now, but I bet the kids back in GSO have missed so many days that they will probably have to do the same this year. It will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro keeps on honking for the potential of an eastern Carolina special early next week. Hope to see it trend west some to get RDU in on the action, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 We had to do that last year. Fortunately, I'm out of school now, but I bet the kids back in GSO have missed so many days that they will probably have to do the same this year. It will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro keeps on honking for the potential of an eastern Carolina special early next week. Hope to see it trend west some to get RDU in on the action, though. Agreed on the euro thing, but I sure would like to see some other models come onboard. The new NAM is still a no-go. My gut says the EURO will take it away for good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Agreed on the euro thing, but I sure would like to see some other models come onboard. The new NAM is still a no-go. My gut says the EURO will take it away for good today. The 0z Euro was somewhat different with the mechanism that triggered cyclogenesis off the FL coast compared to the 12z run from yesterday. It did not hang as much energy back this run in the southwest, and the second northern stream vort was the primary trigger, with little or no phasing. The foci was the draped pva tail from the Friday storm across the FL peninsula. Once the vortmax coming in through the central plains, and into the SE on Saturday hit the stalled front, boom, slp pops east of FL. Below is the 6z UKMET at 72hrs, it is sig different than the NAM and GFS at said time in how it hangs some energy at the tail end of this trough, which the Euro does too. These are the 9z SREF members at 87hrs, you can see the piece of energy coming into the central plains, all the members have that, and several have a pva tail draped across FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Other than above the NW I-40 Corridor and the High Country, I would not be looking for much in the foreseeable future. Enjoy the relaxation of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 0z Euro was somewhat different with the mechanism that triggered cyclogenesis off the FL coast compared to the 12z run from yesterday. It did not hang as much energy back this run in the southwest, and the second northern stream vort was the primary trigger, with little or no phasing. The foci was the draped pva tail from the Friday storm across the FL peninsula. Once the vortmax coming in through the central plains, and into the SE on Saturday hit the stalled front, boom, slp pops east of FL. Below is the 6z UKMET at 72hrs, it is sig different than the NAM and GFS at said time in how it hangs some energy at the tail end of this trough, which the Euro does too. These are the 9z SREF members at 87hrs, you can see the piece of energy coming into the central plains, all the members have that, and several have a pva tail draped across FL. Good post, sir. I always enjoy your analysis. There is still hope then, so it would seem. Now we know what to watch for. Hopefully, we'll be able to shoehorn us in a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyric297 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 0z Euro was somewhat different with the mechanism that triggered cyclogenesis off the FL coast compared to the 12z run from yesterday. It did not hang as much energy back this run in the southwest, and the second northern stream vort was the primary trigger, with little or no phasing. The foci was the draped pva tail from the Friday storm across the FL peninsula. Once the vortmax coming in through the central plains, and into the SE on Saturday hit the stalled front, boom, slp pops east of FL. Below is the 6z UKMET at 72hrs, it is sig different than the NAM and GFS at said time in how it hangs some energy at the tail end of this trough, which the Euro does too. If I'm not mistaken, the new 12Z GFS is starting to catch onto this on the 500mb vort maps. Could the GFS be playing catchup to the EURO? Still don't know what that means for my area, but I'm guessing it is going to improve the chances for some in the SE... There certainly does seem to be a lot more energy held back on the 12Z than the 6Z GFS run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, the new 12Z GFS is starting to catch onto this on the 500mb vort maps. Could the GFS be playing catchup to the EURO? Still don't know what that means for my area, but I'm guessing it is going to improve the chances for some in the SE... At 78, it has the WeatherNC PVA tail.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At 78, it has the WeatherNC PVA tail.... Gone at 84. Low pops S and E again. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, the new 12Z GFS is starting to catch onto this on the 500mb vort maps. Could the GFS be playing catchup to the EURO? Still don't know what that means for my area, but I'm guessing it is going to improve the chances for some in the SE... It didn't look that far off from the 6z vort maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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