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lolz you also had a clipper..and BTW you got as much snow on Dec. 25th and 26th as I got for both storms combined. I remember you using this exact same mantra last year after cashing in time and time again. It really gets old.

I think that Brick may already be in campaign mode for next year's weenie of the year award, which makes it difficult to determine whether or not it is an overall good thing for him to do the silly (when considering the fantastic 12/25-6 storm he got) whining. I'm leaning to hoping the whining subsides soon since i don't think whining now will have much impact on the weenie voting since it is nearly a year away. I'd rather he hold off now and then whine away in, say, Nov-Dec, when voting is just around the corner and we could stomach it more easily.

Any other opinions?

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I remember you using this exact same mantra last year after cashing in time and time again. It really gets old.

Precisely why I blocked Brick two weeks ago. I won't subject myself to another winter of his mindless banter and whining.

Oh, and Brick, the gradeschool PM's you send out to those who ask you to cease and desist are going to end up getting you banned brotha'. :thumbsdown:

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I think that Brick may already be in campaign mode for next year's weenie of the year award, which makes it difficult to determine whether or not it is an overall good thing for him to do the silly (when considering the fantastic 12/25-6 storm he got) whining. I'm leaning to hoping the whining subsides soon since i don't think whining now will have much impact on the weenie voting since it is nearly a year away. I'd rather he hold off now and then whine away in, say, Nov-Dec, when voting is just around the corner and we could stomach it more easily.

Any other opinions?

Brick already has almost everyone's vote that posts in this thread, anyways, though. If Brick wants to seriously contend for next year's Weenie of the Year Award, then he needs to spread his talents to the other subforums because no one knows much about him now outside of us. Of course, then he may get banned, but alas.

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Brick already has almost everyone's vote that posts in this thread, anyways, though. If Brick wants to seriously contend for next year's Weenie of the Year Award, then he needs to spread his talents to the other subforums because no one knows much about him now outside of us. Of course, then he may get banned, but alas.

That would be great

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I think that Brick may already be in campaign mode for next year's weenie of the year award, which makes it difficult to determine whether or not it is an overall good thing for him to do the silly (when considering the fantastic 12/25-6 storm he got) whining. I'm leaning to hoping the whining subsides soon since i don't think whining now will have much impact on the weenie voting since it is nearly a year away. I'd rather he hold off now and then whine away in, say, Nov-Dec, when voting is just around the corner and we could stomach it more easily.

Any other opinions?

We need to get him loving hurricanes so he can focus on the summer and leave us alone for the winter!

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most people get warned or banned for things he says, but for some reason he gets by with it. I am not the only one that says this, even some of the most popular guys on here including some of the METS think the same as I do

He reminds me of a 10 yr. old that either wants ot play in the snow, or if he can't have snow, he wants to be able to play jump rope and hopscotch in shorts and a T-shirt until his mom calls him in to eat his vegetables for dinner.

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Hour 132 doesn't look to bad for eastern NC on the 12z euro. It's no raging blizzard but it wouldn't take much of a shift to the west to get eastern NC in some snow showers. Of course the 12z gfs is way ots and doesn't develop the sfc low like the euro does but something maybe to get some flurries in the air.

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most people get warned or banned for things he says, but for some reason he gets by with it. I am not the only one that says this, even some of the most popular guys on here including some of the METS think the same as I do

Brick is tame compared to some and honestly I don't pay much attention to him. I think some people here go too far with the complaining about him. Honestly what he said was not that big of a deal but it was made into a big deal by everyone else and that actually is the way it normally goes. Why so many pay so much attention to him is beyond me.

If you don't like what he says, just move on and ignore it. If you think it's open and intentional trolling then report it. If it is determined it is, we will do something about it.

I'm not defending what he says but I think some in general need to lighten up and stop making mountains out of mole hills.

And let's move on, if folks want to talk about him, take it to the banter thread please. Thanks.

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Brick is tame compared to some and honestly I don't pay much attention to him. I think some people here go too far with the complaining about him. Honestly what he said was not that big of a deal but it was made into a big deal by everyone else and that actually is the way it normally goes. Why so many pay so much attention to him is beyond me.

If you don't like what he says, just move on and ignore it. If you think it's open and intentional trolling then report it. If it is determined it is, we will do something about it.

I'm not defending what he says but I think some in general need to lighten up and stop making mountains out of mole hills.

Agreed! Everyone was worried that he didn't find the new site and then when he did, BOOM! Brick's ramblings are not that annoying to me any more (...and I like Widre too!) especially when you contrast and compare that guy in west GA who questions EVERYONE as to whether or not he lives in north Georgia or not. By NO MEANS should anyone use I-20 as a dividing line for weather unless you want this guy to question every single post you make. I guess semantics annoy me! LOL!

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Brick is tame compared to some and honestly I don't pay much attention to him. I think some people here go too far with the complaining about him. Honestly what he said was not that big of a deal but it was made into a big deal by everyone else and that actually is the way it normally goes. Why so many pay so much attention to him is beyond me.

If you don't like what he says, just move on and ignore it. If you think it's open and intentional trolling then report it. If it is determined it is, we will do something about it.

I'm not defending what he says but I think some in general need to lighten up and stop making mountains out of mole hills.

And let's move on, if folks want to talk about him, take it to the banter thread please. Thanks.

I understand I am just saying he is the master of one line comments and I know several who have been warned and even banned because of it including myself. Just wandered why he is allowed and no one else? But nothing i am going to dwell on

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Agreed! Everyone was worried that he didn't find the new site and then when he did, BOOM! Brick's ramblings are not that annoying to me any more (...and I like Widre too!) especially when you contrast and compare that guy in west GA who questions EVERYONE as to whether or not he lives in north Georgia or not. By NO MEANS should anyone use I-20 as a dividing line for weather unless you want this guy to question every single post you make. I guess semantics annoy me! LOL!

Good points. I think Brick is one of those elements that makes our SE board what it is. I agree with Lookout. If you don't want to read it, scroll on by. However, if you are going to make true weenie posts, be prepared for the fallout. without the anger and aggression of the folks up north of course.

On a more relevent topic, we do need to look at these storm threats over the next couple weeks and hope we get some good precip. even if it is a cold rain. When have we ever in the SE received all of our precip for the winter in the form of ice and snow. If the temps are going to relax some, I for one would love to see some cold rain. I don't think we are going to see very much in the way of above normal temps for more than a day or two for the foreseable future. While it is sad to see our snow melt, a slow snow melt is great for soil moisture.

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A friend of mine found it looks like the snow cover is helping alot more than the models are showing!!!

Just looking at some temps in South Dakota at noon and comparing them to

the graphical forecast put out by the NWS. All samples I looked at had

fallen well below the graphical hourly predicition.2 examples are Rapid

City, SD- actual 26 deegrees, forecast 38 degrees, and Faith,SD- actual

13 degrees, forecast 22 degrees….Just wondering if this might continue

south as it often does with arctic air. Colder temps could change alot

of forecast!

hoping someone may could chime in on this!!

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Brick is tame compared to some and honestly I don't pay much attention to him. I think some people here go too far with the complaining about him. Honestly what he said was not that big of a deal but it was made into a big deal by everyone else and that actually is the way it normally goes. Why so many pay so much attention to him is beyond me.

If you don't like what he says, just move on and ignore it. If you think it's open and intentional trolling then report it. If it is determined it is, we will do something about it.

I'm not defending what he says but I think some in general need to lighten up and stop making mountains out of mole hills.

And let's move on, if folks want to talk about him, take it to the banter thread please. Thanks.

I agree. Sometimes it's amazing how nasty some can get over a fairly innocuous post. There is always the ignore feature. And no one makes anyone read or click reply to anyone else.

If you don't have anything nice to say then just don't say it lol. Parsing over one word (like the ore day) is really not too useful.

Wx note - ugh someone make the rain go away! Its melting my snow really fast now and it's cold, just not cold enough lol. It's 36 with a cold rain

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I agree. Sometimes it's amazing how nasty some can get over a fairly innocuous post. There is always the ignore feature. And no one makes anyone read or click reply to anyone else.

If you don't have anything nice to say then just don't say it lol. Parsing over one word (like the ore day) is really not too useful.

Wx note - ugh someone make the rain go away! Its melting my snow really fast now and it's cold, just not cold enough lol. It's 36 with a cold rain

I wouldn't be suprised if you saw some wet flakes mix in over the next few hours.:popcorn: Especially if you get under some of the heavier returns.

Edit: THe latest mesoanalysis sent the 850 line way north.. nevermind.:thumbsdown:

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I understand I am just saying he is the master of one line comments and I know several who have been warned and even banned because of it including myself. Just wandered why he is allowed and no one else? But nothing i am going to dwell on

My response to this is here in the banter thread. Any more discussion about it should go there.

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My response to this is here in the banter thread. Any more discussion about it should go there.

http://www.americanw...post__p__303510

OMG I have just gone through two to three pages of banter that have nothing to do with the topic string, will be interesting to see if people actually follow direction and stop posting inapplicable banter in here

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I wouldn't be suprised if you saw some wet flakes mix in over the next few hours.:popcorn: Especially if you get under some of the heavier returns.

Edit: THe latest mesoanalysis sent the 850 line way north.. nevermind.:thumbsdown:

Heavier returns moved overhead, was hoping for at least a little sleet. Nope, justbthe snow packing eating rain lol

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Hour 132 doesn't look to bad for eastern NC on the 12z euro. It's no raging blizzard but it wouldn't take much of a shift to the west to get eastern NC in some snow showers. Of course the 12z gfs is way ots and doesn't develop the sfc low like the euro does but something maybe to get some flurries in the air.

As DT posted on FB earlier, this is very close to a big deal for the Coastal Plain. I hate being 120 hrs out, but if there is one model I want on my side at this range it is the ECMWF. This is not the first run to show this, the 0z had it, albeit to a lesser degree; development on the tail end of this trough off the FL/GA coast. 996 off Hatteras at 138 hrs with Jacksonville, New Bern, and the OBX >0.25", PGV is at 0.22", RDU 0.01" :-( At 114-126 hrs, we are very close to a phasing of parcels near the FL panhandle, I mean very close. Trough never goes neg, but it a solid neutral tilt over the FL Panhandle, and at 132 and 138 hrs we have a monster vort centered just off ILM, hence the development previously mentioned. If this sw trough can go neg over the FL panhandle where it is neutral on this run, that would likely pull the low closer to the coast and put us really in the game for a <5 day threat surprise, one we really did not see coming in the long range.

What causes the development? The Euro misses the capture between the upper level trough, and the piece of energy in the desert sw. The UL trough is responsible for the Fri storm, which should track to our west through the TN Valley. The Euro is nowhere near as excited about this as the 12z GGEM and GFS ens mean (which had a simple majority of members dropping a bomb on NE). The miss happens at 72hrs, so we are not that far out. At 96hrs, the UL trough is pulling out of NE, and there is a draped area of PVA extending from the Delmarva to TX/MX, with the parcel that missed the capture in N MX just south of El Paso on the tail end. That works east in the next several panels with a northern stream piece (which is shown by most of the guidance) coming into the Plains, and phasing with southern vort. Complicated setup and highly variable as we are trying to predict phasing, and a 6 hr difference in timing, or 50 mile placement in features has huge implications on what is realized at the surface in terms of what and where. The good news is that we are only 72 hrs out from the southern sw possibly being missed, and that is within a reasonable window. I am worrying about a miss with the UL trough first, and will take it from there... The 18z NAM and GFS completely captured the piece in the trough and are nothing like the Euro in that regard. Trough placement and strength though in the OH Valley are very similar, so something is askew... The 18z UKMET looks very much like the EC, and nothing like the NAM/GFS at 72 hrs. The separation between these two features shown would indicate something is going to get left back, no way in hell that piece in NM gets captured if this verified at 72hrs...

110117222601811472000.gif

18z GFS @ 72

gfs_500_072s.gif

:popcorn:

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