GaWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You talking about the day 7-9 storm? Ooops, I meant 1/25. Yes, the day 7-9 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ooops, I meant 1/25. Yes, the day 7-9 storm. Yeah, with a 1039 high over the lakes that would spell ice disaster for the south, now we just need to hold together and not slide east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The JMA at 192 looks interesting. Very similar to the 12z Euro today. HKY_WX said it best when talking about chaos. There is plenty of potential in today's 12z runs in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro looked pretty good for next week in the Carolinas on the 25th. The temps are border line for most of the state but it's so far out it's easy to look and get excited. The Euro also had a major winter storm for us this week 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Plenty of surface cold air funneling in with a strong CAD sig, though not that cold at the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah, with a 1039 high over the lakes that would spell ice disaster for the south, now we just need to hold together and not slide east. Yes, this would be a ZR disaster for CAD regions. However, the odds of this actually verifying this far out are, of course, quite small. I'm looking at this as entertainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Plenty of surface cold air funneling in with a strong CAD sig, though not that cold at the mid levels. I was getting ready to type the same thing after looking at Penn State's e-wall. Huge CAD signature on the Euro @ 192 for the Carolina's. The JMA shows a similar set-up - just no CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I was getting ready to type the same thing after looking at Penn State's e-wall. Huge CAD signature on the Euro @ 192 for the Carolina's. The JMA shows a similar set-up - just no CAD signature. this could easily trend colder as we progress, but we'll just see if the threat holds or not. As HKY just posted, models will be in chaos with all of these short waves swinging through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Unfortunately the 50/50 low is gone so I imagine the high will slide east and this system will cut. Just a guess though. We need the 50/50 low to hang out for a day or two longer. Plenty of surface cold air funneling in with a strong CAD sig, though not that cold at the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The snapshot CAD event looks really great, but that high has got to hold. I'm on BB so I can't see the next frame, but if there's no conflence in the NE, that high is a goner and most areas outside the mountain areas that see some front-end frozen, followed by cold rain. Still plent of time to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I was getting ready to type the same thing after looking at Penn State's e-wall. Huge CAD signature on the Euro @ 192 for the Carolina's. The JMA shows a similar set-up - just no CAD signature. Correct me if I am wrong here, but given that it is a 1039, would we not (if we were ice fans) want that HPS just out over say... Virginia / Maryland coast area? What I am getting at is, given it's current placement (and I realize it's more than 7 days out) I think for a CAD set up we would want it a little bit further south in placement. I do however like the CAD sig showing up... just hate ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Plenty of surface cold air funneling in with a strong CAD sig, though not that cold at the mid levels. Now that's what i'm talking about Even at that range the Euro has freezing temps into ga with that too. Knowing the euro has a slight warm bias at that range, that's pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Lost in all of this, much of the cold air in North America is gone at 240 on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Correct me if I am wrong here, but given that it is a 1039, would we not (if we were ice fans) want that HPS just out over say... Virginia / Maryland coast area? What I am getting at is, given it's current placement (and I realize it's more than 7 days out) I think for a CAD set up we would want it a little bit further south in placement. I do however like the CAD sig showing up... just hate ice. From what I've heard on this board is that a CAD signature(even if it's weak) should be taken seriously when shown on the models. Now, the models are flopping everywhere. I think the thing to take away from the 12z runs is that the potential is there for more than one event. What is more concerning to me is the lack of cold at 240. I have heard the Euro (in the long range) has it cold through mid Feb. So, that is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Lost in all of this, much of the cold air in North America is gone at 240 on the Euro. I doubt many would complain if we somehow managed to get one more storm then a warm up. In fact, it seems like most would welcome it. Long ways off though so either possibility is uncertain to say the least. *edited to add the part about welcoming a warm up after getting one more storm*..had a brain fart when I made the post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I doubt many would complain if we somehow managed to get one more storm. In fact, it seems like most would welcome it. Long ways off though so either possibility is uncertain to say the least. Wouldn't mind one more storm either - or more. At KTRI, our events have been of the 1-2 inch variety. But, it has added up. I think the airport is around 13 inches for the season. I do like the pattern shown on the 12z GFS as well. I'd say that block will reload in February. BTW, I am not pulling for an early exit for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro does not appear to be handling the energy that is coming out of the southeast very well. It's almost as if it doesn't know to what degree the northern and southern streams interact. That's the key difference between the EC and the GFS/GGEM. The EC does not allow the streams to interact - keeps a distinct northern/southern stream. The GFS/GGEM has much more phasing. Unfortunately, both of those are biases for the given models, so it's hard to gauge which would be right, although I would lean toward the ECMWF at least over the next several days given its better consistency and track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Correct me if I am wrong here, but given that it is a 1039, would we not (if we were ice fans) want that HPS just out over say... Virginia / Maryland coast area? What I am getting at is, given it's current placement (and I realize it's more than 7 days out) I think for a CAD set up we would want it a little bit further south in placement. I do however like the CAD sig showing up... just hate ice. Given the cold temps involved with that high (and it's strength, it's in a good spot for cad and creating wintery problems. One of the general rule of thumbs I have for ice/cad in ga is the 0c 850s down to at least nc right before or right when the system moves in. More often than not that means freezing/frozen precip here if the high of course is in a reasonable position. Plus 850s are anywhere from -10 to -16c near the source which is pretty good. Euro also shows cad up to the 850mb level, another indication it would be strong. But this is such a long ways off, it doesn't mean a whole lot right now. AS larry said, for entertainment purposes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow....a couple of model runs and some are worked into a lather about winter being over. As others have stated, you can anticipate a lot of model waffling as any of these little disturbance pivoting around the eastern NA tough can pop a storm system. The one between hours 126 and 138 is extremely close to one for NC, just a tad too late in deepening. Euro does provide a nice setup for next week, but it also did that on previous runs for the end of this week. I did get into why that happened in my video today. Bottom line is....in this fairly chaotic disturbance pattern, you simply can't get too worked up (either excited or towel-throwing) on any one, or even any several, model runs. Also, while there isn't any overly brutal cold on the 12z Euro, there certainly isn't any prolonged 'warm' weather for much of the eastern US on the horizon either. For snow fans, not necessarily a bad thing for a fairly chaotic, generally below average pattern to be indicated. Have the non-mountain areas in the region seen their final winter storm of the season? Of course that is a possibility (and if it is, what a fun winter it was). However, I still think there are more chances lurking around out there. Anybody care to agree or disagree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow....a couple of model runs and some are worked into a lather about winter being over. As others have stated, you can anticipate a lot of model waffling as any of these little disturbance pivoting around the eastern NA tough can pop a storm system. The one between hours 126 and 138 is extremely close to one for NC, just a tad too late in deepening. Euro does provide a nice setup for next week, but it also did that on previous runs for the end of this week. I did get into why that happened in my video today. Bottom line is....in this fairly chaotic disturbance pattern, you simply can't get too worked up (either excited or towel-throwing) on any one, or even any several, model runs. Also, while there isn't any overly brutal cold on the 12z Euro, there certainly isn't any prolonged 'warm' weather for much of the eastern US on the horizon either. For snow fans, not necessarily a bad thing for a fairly chaotic, generally below average pattern to be indicated. Have the non-mountain areas in the region seen their final winter storm of the season? Of course that is a possibility (and if it is, what a fun winter it was). However, I still think there are more chances lurking around out there. Anybody care to agree or disagree? I don't see much cold at 240 on the Euro, but I don't mean that winter is over by that statement - not by a long shot. It is just an observation. There simply isn't much cold air in North America on that run. The 12z GFS actually looks quite good for winter weather over the next few weeks. The pattern this winter has wanted to be cold over the east. I would guess that continues into March. Some winters, I would argue winter would be over in January and be right. This is not one of those winters. Edit: My concern would be that the cold air exits and it takes a week or two to replenish. Thus, we would lose some prime winter weeks to that. That said, it would be tough for winter to continue non-stop as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I wan't directing anything at you....just some general observations in my post-nap haze..... I don't see much cold at 240 on the Euro, but I don't mean that winter is over by that statement - not by a long shot. It is just an observation. There simply isn't much cold air in North America on that run. The 12z GFS actually looks quite good for winter weather over the next few weeks. The pattern this winter has wanted to be cold over the east. I would guess that continues into March. Some winters, I would argue winter would be over in January and be right. This is not one of those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I doubt many would complain if we somehow managed to get one more storm. In fact, it seems like most would welcome it. Long ways off though so either possibility is uncertain to say the least. i want to get more than one more storm lol - i guess i am greedy. i would love to get some ice and more snow before this winter ends - at least we would have two great winters since i cant see us getting a third one in a row yes people hate ice, yes its a mess if its more than .50" - but they sure are fun to follow with the cad, winds, dewpoints, moisture, etc. and ice is really pretty on the trees, esp when the sun comes out. i wouldnt mind tracking one of these again since its been 5+ years until things get closer and look more bleak, i am not that worried of a warm up at 240 hrs, yet anyway (that could change if its still being shown in the shorter range at 200 hours) msuwx - yes i agree with your statement! the way models have been shifting in this pattern honestly its not until really close to the event (a few days or less) before we really start getting a better idea. the flow has been fast, n and s, and there are just too many variables for the models to be able to get all the interactions right that far out. most of our storms have been on a model, or several, while others show nothing. some storms are 'lost' and come back. as long as we have the cold air around and storms moving through every few days things could easily become more 'interesting' at any time glad i am not a pro met this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow....a couple of model runs and some are worked into a lather about winter being over. As others have stated, you can anticipate a lot of model waffling as any of these little disturbance pivoting around the eastern NA tough can pop a storm system. The one between hours 126 and 138 is extremely close to one for NC, just a tad too late in deepening. Euro does provide a nice setup for next week, but it also did that on previous runs for the end of this week. I did get into why that happened in my video today. Bottom line is....in this fairly chaotic disturbance pattern, you simply can't get too worked up (either excited or towel-throwing) on any one, or even any several, model runs. Also, while there isn't any overly brutal cold on the 12z Euro, there certainly isn't any prolonged 'warm' weather for much of the eastern US on the horizon either. For snow fans, not necessarily a bad thing for a fairly chaotic, generally below average pattern to be indicated. Have the non-mountain areas in the region seen their final winter storm of the season? Of course that is a possibility (and if it is, what a fun winter it was). However, I still think there are more chances lurking around out there. Anybody care to agree or disagree? I agree with you about this. A lot of folks need to remember that in this fluid situation with our pattern, modeling will not get a good handle of anything, especially since you have a parade of systems entering into the U.S. What one model shows will most likely be different in some form of another due to how each of them analyze the situation, whether it's the two streams, the placement of cold air, etc. If it were possible to be perfect on knowing how something played out, I could understand but that will most likely not ever happen as it stands now. As you stated, no one should be excited nor should they quit on this winter season because as far as I know, we are definitely NOT finished yet. I feel as though we have lots more potential for at least another round or 2 of wintry weather to affect the SE before this is all said and done. Heck, it may be more if the pattern adjusts for such but right now, I'm thankful that we even managed to pull off two great events and I'm already satisfied with what I have for snowfall totals. Anymore is merely a bonus IMO. Whatever bit of frozen precipitation that comes our way from this point on be it snow, ice, or both, I'll be ready like always to track with you guys. It's only a matter of patience and taking things one step at a time instead of trying to grasp it all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Oh boo ****ing hoo, you've had such a tough winter. We had one good snow on Dec 25 and 26, but that's it except for a bunch of cold air. I'd love to have another one with more than 3 inches of snow. I'm just saying if it isn't going to happen, I'd rather just have warmer weather than cold and no more snow to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Anybody care to agree or disagree? I'm not really sure why people have been so quick to get negative either. One thing I keep telling myself is that this is the middle of Jan. which climo wise is a good time for there always to be a chance for some wintry weather. Again if the Euro or GFS shows borderline temps I'll take it in the hopes that the seasonal trends work out for us. Maybe the few people who have been really negative are just so used to all the snow in Feb. they think it's already close to March . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 We had one good snow on Dec 25 and 26, but that's it except for a bunch of cold air. Quit whinning. Parts of the Triangle received more snow in that one storm, then some people on here have seen all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 We had one good snow on Dec 25 and 26, but that's it except for a bunch of cold air. lolz you also had a clipper..and BTW you got as much snow on Dec. 25th and 26th as I got for both storms combined. I remember you using this exact same mantra last year after cashing in time and time again. It really gets old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 I agree with you about this. A lot of folks need to remember that in this fluid situation with our pattern, modeling will not get a good handle of anything, especially since you have a parade of systems entering into the U.S. What one model shows will most likely be different in some form of another due to how each of them analyze the situation, whether it's the two streams, the placement of cold air, etc. If it were possible to be perfect on knowing how something played out, I could understand but that will most likely not ever happen as it stands now. As you stated, no one should be excited nor should they quit on this winter season because as far as I know, we are definitely NOT finished yet. I feel as though we have lots more potential for at least another round or 2 of wintry weather to affect the SE before this is all said and done. Heck, it may be more if the pattern adjusts for such but right now, I'm thankful that we even managed to pull off two great events and I'm already satisfied with what I've have for snowfall totals. Anymore is merely a bonus IMO. Whatever bit of frozen precipitation that comes our way from this point on be it snow, ice, or both, I'll be ready like always to track with you guys. It's only a matter of patience and taking things one step at a time instead of trying to grasp it all at once. I think we've been spoiled on the last few storms having such advance warning. Which I sort of understand, the Euro did so well with the past two storms well in advance if it's showing a non winter solution for us it's hard to discredit it and hope for a surprise. However it happens every year that at the last minute someone really cashes in. Might as well be us this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro ensembles are out- and there is s tremendous spread even as soon as day 5. The storm shown at days 8-9 is a total massive outlier. This pattern is pretty much impossible right now beyond day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 lolz you also had a clipper..and BTW you got as much snow on Dec. 25th and 26th as I got for both storms combined. I remember you using this exact same mantra last year after cashing in time and time again. It really gets old. OK, I admit, I forgot about the clipper. That was a nice little snow. I am not saying I would not like seeing more snow. I just hate cold weather without any snow. That is just boring and miserable to me. So, if it isn't going to snow, I'd rather it be warm. But this probably needs to stay in the banter thread anyway. Sorry. I will just think snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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