Lookout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I know Tennessee West of the Mountains does not get a lot of talk time, but Foothills and several others have been kind enough to start including us in there thoughts and forecasts. So a shout and thanks to them. Exactly, some have made an effort. The fact is there are a lot of carolina posters and they are going to post a lot about the areas they know and are comfortable with giving an opinion on because they know their region very well but not so much TN. It takes different circumstances for TN to get snow vs the carolinas/ga a lot of the times and quite simply many don't know the climo there very well. So TN posters need to post more often and recruit more if they know of any. The carolinas/ga group had the exact same problem years ago when we were drowned out by mid atlantic/new england posters. But we eventually had more posters and that's how we got to where we are. But It takes some time and although it might be frustrating to some in TN/AL (although posters are few and far between in in al as far as I know), they need to be patient. This forum is not and will not be exclusively for the carolinas/ga. This forum welcomes tn posters and I hope more join and participate, as well as al. However making smartass remarks and complaining all the time won't change anything and in fact will drive a wedge between people and we don't need that or want it. So for the tn/al posters, please don't do that. Your state will be talked about more and more in time as your members increase but in the process, let's just get along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 CMC shows some hope left but do the ENS support the OP? Is everyone pretty much discounting this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Hmm..Maybe the Euro will turn around. If it doesn't the ole' fork is going in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not discounting the GGEM but remember the precip map shown is for the preceding 12 hours so most of what looks like snow is not. There is a chance of maybe a quick burst of snow behind the front and the mountains would do well, but the GGEM does NOT show a big snow east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I know Tennessee West of the Mountains does not get a lot of talk time, but Foothills and several others have been kind enough to start including us in there thoughts and forecasts. So a shout and thanks to them. LOL. I will probably not post very often, but when I do, I am much more interested in the mid-South/Lower MS Valley/TN Valley than the areas farther east. I am still very interested in this late week system, as much as anything because it is fascinating study in the models and predictability of the stream interaction. The 12Z GGEM is the most phased showing a significant surface low developing over AL at 84 hours which then moves up the East Coast as a bomb. The 00Z ECMWF shows no phasing, and has two totally separated streams resulting in an overrunning mid range winter weather event from the Arklatex through the mid-South across TN. The GFS has been waffling in between those two extremes, yesterday's 12Z run looked more like the GGEM, the 18Z/00Z seemed to be trending toward the ECMWF, now the 06Z/12Z models are trending more toward the GGEM though not as extreme. Both the GGEM and the ECMWF have been pretty consistent in their own solutions. Obviously the endgame will be closer to one, and overall model performance would give a strong lean toward the ECMWF. I am very interested to see if that's how it pans out, or if this will be a rare swing and miss for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not discounting the GGEM but remember the precip map shown is for the preceding 12 hours so most of what looks like snow is not. There is a chance of maybe a quick burst of snow behind the front and the mountains would do well, but the GGEM does NOT show a big snow east of the Apps. Previous 12hr? I didn't know that, I thought it was previous 6hr precip map...never really questioned it as I see 6HR precip on the map itself. It says from 12z FRI to 6z FRI?...I'm confused. Oh well. So I guess we can write this one off unless we see some kind of drastic change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For those holding out hope about the late week storm- don't. Unless you live in OK/AR/TN and the NC mountains. We are close enough now and there is overwhelming model support for a low track over the interior of the SE, with the only snow threat east of the Apps perhaps a very brief changeover as the cold air rushes in. Sorry, but stick a fork in this one. The new GGEM has a nice snow storm for OKC, LIT, BNA and afterward another NE bomb (boo). There is some postential later but the lack of a true good -NAO in the Euro ensembles has me thinking that January will not be warm, but we may struggle for any significant winter precip events. I agree, yesterday it looked more promising over the next 10 days but today it looks like a pretty boring stretch coming up as far as winter weather goes for Ga/sc. 0z euro ensembles look very dry through the next 10 days. And as far as the system late this week, the euro ensembles keep most (if not all) of the precip in the warm sector and south of the tn/nc border. This system late this week was never a threat for ga/sc to begin with so no big loss there. That said, there has been quite a bit of inconsistency between model runs, especially the gfs. So we can't rule out anything over the next 7 to 10 days just because they might not show anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Previous 12hr? I didn't know that, I thought it was previous 6hr precip map...never really questioned it as I see 6HR precip on the map itself. Oh well. So I guess we can write this one off unless we see some kind of drastic change. Sorry I meant 6 hours, but the point is previous- you need to go to the next time step and compare what precip is shown vs the 0 at 850 line was for the time you are interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sorry I meant 6 hours, but the point is previous- you need to go to the next time step and compare what precip is shown vs the 0 at 850 line was for the time you are interested in. Oh I see what you're saying. Weird I know this but I didn't look at the next time step, only 102 and 108 and thought I saw something substantial. Thanks for pointing that out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Anyone got the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sorry I meant 6 hours, but the point is previous- you need to go to the next time step and compare what precip is shown vs the 0 at 850 line was for the time you are interested in. Yeah, with the exception of tn, the ggem is just showing your usual cold front..most of that precip falls ahead or along the front for ga/carolinas. Tn however would come out of it with a couple of inches of snow though it would appear if the ggem is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well the Euro says it's cold chasing the moisture which will not work for anyone outside of the mountains as the very talented mets have been echoing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Cue fat lady...fork...and crickets chirping.... Next potential threat could be in the 23-26th time period....after that...not looking too good...I think I could deal with a Feb thaw as long as we leave the severe weather out of the equation....Here's to hoping for a sneak attack.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well the Euro says it's cold chasing the moisture which will not work for anyone outside of the mountains as the very talented mets have been echoing today. Yeah, it doesn't look promising, although at 120 it pops a low off the FL/GA coast, pretty far east, but it should head NE from here, maybe scrape the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Then EURO at 144 has another SW in AZ and from the looks of things shouldn't cut as it progresses, but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 DT holds out some hope: Wxrisk.com MIDDAY MODEL update-- 12Z GFS Just has a cold front JAN 21 that sweeps through East coast... 12z CANADIAN... has Nice Low over KY that tracks NE brings SNOW to rain I-95 & heavy snow Inland... 12z EURO Major Low JAN 22-23 of the SE coast .. very close to Big snow for VA NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah, it doesn't look promising, although at 120 it pops a low off the FL/GA coast, pretty far east, but it should head NE from here, maybe scrape the coast. Haven't seen after 120 yet, but the EURO looks like it might be close to phasing that system...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yeah, it doesn't look promising, although at 120 it pops a low off the FL/GA coast, pretty far east, but it should head NE from here, maybe scrape the coast. Imagine being in the MA and NE for this one, GGEM = big storm for them, GFS ens mean agrees, but the EC says nope, not in my book... Got to love the suffering going on to our north. The redevelopment on the tail end is a possibility, although somewhat uncommon, but we do see it every once an awhile. I highlighted it this morning, but still not enough evidence to get excited about, although if I had to pick the model I would want showing it, it would be the Euro not doubt. 0.22" here Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro does not appear to be handling the energy that is coming out of the southeast very well. It's almost as if it doesn't know to what degree the northern and southern streams interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Haven't seen after 120 yet, but the EURO looks like it might be close to phasing that system...we'll see. Yeah, it's about 200 miles to far east for NC/SC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Then EURO at 144 has another SW in AZ and from the looks of things shouldn't cut as it progresses, but not sure. At 168, the setup looks good to me, 1039 high over the lakes, looks to be a gulf low forming, northern stream coming in. I was wrong, the high ends up sliding east and it looks to cut, oh well. So far out there, probably will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Imagine being in the MA and NE for this one, GGEM = big storm for them, GFS ens mean agrees, but the EC says nope, not in my book... Got to love the suffering going on to our north. The redevelopment on the tail end is a possibility, although somewhat uncommon, but we do see it every once an awhile. I highlighted it this morning, but still not enough evidence to get excited about, although if I had to pick the model I would want showing it, it would be the Euro not doubt. 0.22" here Saturday night HAH, another snow event for you. How much snow have you received the past 2 seasons. RDU has had about 15" total from the past 2 seasons, you have to be over 30 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro has a great setup at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Folks, The 12Z Euro has what appears to me to be a major ZR storm on 1/25 for the ATL-AHN corridor with qpf of ~1", strong CAD, and 850's mainly colder than +7C ***fwiw, which is mainly entertainment*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 HAH, another snow event for you. How much snow have you received the past 2 seasons. RDU has had about 15" total from the past 2 seasons, you have to be over 30 inches? Around 21" for the past 2, although last season I chased two storms, and adding those to what we had here I saw a little over 50" fall. Still jonesing for a chase candidate, but nothing has presented itself thus far, hope that changes in Feb or March, but <12" just won't cut it anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Don't shoot the messenger, DT states... MIDDAY MODEL update-- 12Z GFS Just has a cold front JAN 21 that sweeps through East coast... 12z CANADIAN... has Nice Low over KY that tracks NE brings SNOW to rain I-95 & heavy snow Inland... 12z EURO Major Low JAN 22-23 of the SE coast .. very close to Big snow for VA NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Folks, The 12Z Euro has what appears to me to be a major ZR storm on 1/26 for the ATL-AHN corridor with qpf of ~1", strong CAD, and 850's mainly colder than +7C ***fwiw, which is mainly entertainment*** You talking about the day 7-9 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Don't shoot the messenger, DT states... MIDDAY MODEL update-- 12Z GFS Just has a cold front JAN 21 that sweeps through East coast... 12z CANADIAN... has Nice Low over KY that tracks NE brings SNOW to rain I-95 & heavy snow Inland... 12z EURO Major Low JAN 22-23 of the SE coast .. very close to Big snow for VA NC Do you have me on ignore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Euro has a great setup at 168 I totally concur. It seems all of the models are seeing the potential, but can't seem to decide which piece(edit: from the southwest) of energy to go with...Thus, the waffles from run-to-run. Can someone post the JMA from 96? I can't get my browser to clear that from it's cache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 There are about 3 separate waves that look to come through from Friday morning to about Tuesday. Model chaos is going to be the word this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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