POWERSTROKE Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 typical of the euro. So far this year it flip flops until 72-48 hours out. No concerns yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Much better source than TWC NCSN... http://mesowest.utah...oho=&rawsflag=3 Plus my station is there! Unfortunately, they don't weed out all the bogus reports before displaying them. At least they color code the station so you can easily see if it's suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I didn't add it to this thread, but made a new thread on the tonight event for the southern Apps. Mods feel free to put in this one if needed, I just wanted to make sure others this morning saw the threat and since its early AM, some may miss it in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 No not really, said air is just cold enough. He just went on to say how messy it would be from DC - NY Looks like Foothills thinks its at least possible. Everybody bashes him no matter what he says but now Robert even sees the chance so there must be something to it. Great post Big Frosty. It was good to see he even mentioned NC I didn't know he remembered us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The Euro didn't look good east of the mountains but did look ok for west. esp. northern half of Ark, most of Tenn (at some point ) and then the mtns and nrn NC, but all the qpf was light about everywhere. Its a bad timing situation of the 2 waves in question. The northern stream is not timed well to work with the southern stream,a nd what it shows is a brief period of light overrrunning in western and northern Tenn, stretching west, but east of the Apps the cold isn't in place, but is coming into place from the north and west, which wont' help the southern piedmont of NC or Upstate any at all. Unless the southwest system holds back longer, or if the cold doesnt' get in here before the precip event, then east of the Apps is mostly rain, save for Hickory and points north and west the last few hours of the event. For I-40 in Tn and Ark, this could be a couple of inches but the qpf is limited overall and weakening thanks to bad timing of the northern stream. Still, this is a changing and evolving event, so its not the last chapter yet. Beyond that storm, there may be another threat late weekend with colder air everywhere to work with , but with so many s/w coming in from the Gulf of Ak, timing of anything at day 5 and beyond is very questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 What is tenn? Cannot we not start this crap again. I love tenn, the state not UT What??? You don't like UT??? C'mon, you've gotta love that bright orange color! I went to UT, my wife went to Georgia, you can imagine what kind of battles that creates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I try not to pull SEC (unless I have to). I could image the battle lines in you house... What??? You don't like UT??? C'mon, you've gotta love that bright orange color! I went to UT, my wife went to Georgia, you can imagine what kind of battles that creates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 One thing that needs to be kept in mind as srain and weatherNC pointed out is that they are sending recon missions on this storm. That tells us that HPC doesn't have faith in the models right now. Probably won't be until 00z Wed. that there is any faith one way or another. It'll be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 One thing that needs to be kept in mind as srain and weatherNC pointed out is that they are sending recon missions on this storm. That tells us that HPC doesn't have faith in the models right now. Probably won't be until 00z Wed. that there is any faith one way or another. It'll be a long week. I wish I could say they are flying those because of us, but they are not. This has a high prob of being a sig sn-storm for the 95 corridor from DC to NYC and beyond. I fell asleep before the EC last night and I am kind of glad about that, as it would have made me depressed to see that run come in. The guidance is starting to converge, and ensemble clustering is fairly good at this range. Sure it is 4-5 days out and there will be some wobbles, however, I do not foresee a shift large enough to put us back into the game. TN and AR stand the best chances with this one, as the low should track right over NC and bomb out just to our north as it slams the big cities. Any chance we have here in the coastal plain would be from redevelopment along the tail end of the front, and while there are some hints of that, not really enough to get excited about at this point. 6z GFS ens members.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I wish I could say they are flying those because of us, but they are not. This has a high prob of being a sig sn-storm for the 95 corridor from DC to NYC and beyond. I fell asleep before the EC last night and I am kind of glad about that, as it would have made me depressed to see that run come in. The guidance is starting to converge, and ensemble clustering is fairly good at this range. Sure it is 4-5 days out and there will be some wobbles, however, I do not foresee a shift large enough to put us back into the game. TN and AR stand the best chances with this one, as the low should track right over NC and bomb out just to our north as it slams the big cities. Any chance we have here in the coastal plain would be from redevelopment along the tail end of the front, and while there are some hints of that, not really enough to get excited about at this point. 6z GFS ens members.. Yep, looks like a cool rain for us..Even the Euro ensemble shows the low tracking right over us. Well DC is due, so hopefully they get hit hard so they will quit there whining. But, it wouldn't take much of a shift to get say Winston and points west a good storm. I think anything east of 85 in NC looks to be a lost cause at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the latest SREF is pointing toward even less separation in the flow and taking this as a full lat. trough moving through. The ECMWF may be trending this way as well. Meaning a cold frontal passage with rainshowers ahead of it for NC for the most part. It's not looking like much of winter event east of the mtns in NC anyway, could be further north. I'm turning my eyes to the next event with little hope in NC for this one. On the plus side, it will turn very cold behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Cold rain showers in ATL. ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: ATL LAT= 33.65 LON= -84.42 ELE= 1034 00Z JAN17 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK MON 00Z 17-JAN 6.5 5.1 1019 73 38 0.00 564 549 MON 06Z 17-JAN 2.2 4.9 1019 87 48 0.00 564 549 MON 12Z 17-JAN 1.4 3.7 1018 92 64 0.00 561 547 MON 18Z 17-JAN 9.8 2.9 1016 66 55 0.00 559 547 TUE 00Z 18-JAN 6.2 1.9 1014 85 46 0.00 558 547 TUE 06Z 18-JAN 4.5 2.9 1013 93 82 0.00 557 546 TUE 12Z 18-JAN 5.0 4.6 1013 96 82 0.03 557 547 TUE 18Z 18-JAN 10.2 5.3 1011 82 52 0.06 557 548 WED 00Z 19-JAN 9.2 2.9 1012 96 87 0.05 556 546 WED 06Z 19-JAN 8.0 3.0 1013 98 48 0.01 556 545 WED 12Z 19-JAN 6.6 5.2 1016 97 8 0.00 562 549 WED 18Z 19-JAN 9.3 7.0 1018 69 11 0.00 567 552 THU 00Z 20-JAN 5.4 7.0 1018 82 12 0.00 569 554 THU 06Z 20-JAN 1.4 7.2 1019 92 8 0.00 569 554 THU 12Z 20-JAN -0.6 7.0 1018 96 34 0.00 568 553 THU 18Z 20-JAN 12.7 5.2 1016 62 39 0.00 567 554 FRI 00Z 21-JAN 10.4 6.5 1011 89 92 0.02 564 554 FRI 06Z 21-JAN 5.6 4.7 1011 97 95 0.28 561 552 FRI 12Z 21-JAN 0.4 1.9 1013 85 57 0.03 557 547 FRI 18Z 21-JAN 6.0 0.6 1012 38 25 0.00 554 545 SAT 00Z 22-JAN 1.3 0.4 1012 51 19 0.00 552 543 SAT 06Z 22-JAN -3.4 -1.5 1013 64 5 0.00 552 542 SAT 12Z 22-JAN -4.3 -3.4 1015 67 2 0.00 550 538 SAT 18Z 22-JAN 5.9 -2.9 1016 44 52 0.00 549 536 SUN 00Z 23-JAN 0.7 -1.2 1018 68 7 0.00 553 539 SUN 06Z 23-JAN -2.9 0.1 1021 71 6 0.00 558 541 SUN 12Z 23-JAN -3.2 0.9 1024 66 12 0.00 561 542 SUN 18Z 23-JAN 9.5 1.1 1025 39 13 0.00 564 543 MON 00Z 24-JAN 4.7 1.5 1026 63 6 0.00 565 544 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FWIW, the Canadian does develop a wave of low pressure along the front @ 99 hrs. That would enhance any snowfall across E TN if that would happen. Right now, it is about the only model showing this solution. So, unless something changes, this looks like a clipper sliding through. Typical problems w/ the clippers are whether they will dive far enough south and will enough cold air be in place to support snow. I still think this event is not over, especially for the upper South. I do think the models are still incorrectly handling the energy moving out of the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FWIW, the Canadian does develop a wave of low pressure along the front @ 99 hrs. That would enhance any snowfall across E TN if that would happen. Right now, it is about the only model showing this solution. So, unless something changes, this looks like a clipper sliding through. Typical problems w/ the clippers are whether they will dive far enough south and will enough cold air be in place to support snow. I still think this event is not over, especially for the upper South. I do think the models are still incorrectly handling the energy moving out of the southwest. Well said. And really didn't all of this happen with just one set of model runs? It takes a few good runs to get people hopping around here, than one bad run, to kill everyone's hopes. Yeah the 00z runs looked like crap for snow lovers, but that doesn't mean this winter storm potential in non-existent now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Exactly, and since this is a weather forum for NC, then we should not be concerned about the system, right? These posts are starting to get a little old. Knock it off. For the 100th time you can't expect regular posters in the carolinas to get excited over the prospects for snow in tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like nothing more than rain followed by cold later this week. If this is all we're going to get the rest of winter, I hope February turns into a blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like nothing more than rain followed by cold later this week. If this is all we're going to get the rest of winter, I hope February turns into a blowtorch. Well you might get your wish, I for one enjoyed this past weekend of just seasonable weather. The GFS and Euro are predicting the NAO to go positive in about 10 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlipe Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Whatever happens i still do not think we have seen the last of winter. I believe we will need to keep our eye out for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM @ 84 hrs(yes, I know it's the NAM at 84) just looks like the passage of a cold front w/ cold behind the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here is KTRI's assessment of late this week for E TN and SW VA. From what we know now on the models(not counting the Canadian), it is probably correct. ...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER AND ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT WITH SOME RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING. PULLED THE NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LATE FORECAST PERIOD MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT QUITE AS OPTIMISTIC FOR SUCH AN EVENT. STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO MEX MOS GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY. DURING THESE PERIOD UNDERCUT THE SUGGESTED NUMBERS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks like nothing more than rain followed by cold later this week. If this is all we're going to get the rest of winter, I hope February turns into a blowtorch. Oh boo ****ing hoo, you've had such a tough winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Ok, so how does the overall pattern look after this weekend? The cold comes in. That seems to be a given. Is there a decent amount of energy floating around at that time? I keep hearing that the week of the 24th may be a better time to see a storm. I know there's no specifics but how does the overall pattern look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z NAM @ 84 hrs(yes, I know it's the NAM at 84) just looks like the passage of a cold front w/ cold behind the rain. Looks like an Arkansas to Kentucky and lower OH Valley snowstorm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 If nothing else, having that big system just crush the north might work in our favor to reestablish the blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Well I may sound like weenie, but im not discounting this late-week threat. If the 12z runs hold true to the 00z runs, then I'll stick a fork in it, but until then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 The 12z GFS looked good for a storm next week. On Tue. it was close to popping a low off in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 There is still plenty of time for things to swing either way. For instance...GSP has CLT area in a grid for rain/snow for all day Friday and all Friday night. Basically, they are trying to get a handle on the wave (which is something I have never seen before on the models) rolling in Friday, per the GFS. It's like the precip is moving lockstep with the cold air. Just an educated guess, but these things typically do not work out for us, east of the Apps. Regardless, there is still plenty of time for things to change to favor more of a wintry scenario. I still thnk we have some good times ahead in the long range... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_096l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_102l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_pcp_090l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I know Tennessee West of the Mountains does not get a lot of talk time, but Foothills and several others have been kind enough to start including us in there thoughts and forecasts. So a shout and thanks to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The 12z GFS looked good for a storm next week. On Tue. it was close to popping a low off in the GOM. Ensemble Mean....Probably our (NC/SC/GA) best hope in the next couple of weeks. TN could cash in this Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For those holding out hope about the late week storm- don't. Unless you live in OK/AR/TN and the NC mountains. We are close enough now and there is overwhelming model support for a low track over the interior of the SE, with the only snow threat east of the Apps perhaps a very brief changeover as the cold air rushes in. Sorry, but stick a fork in this one. The new GGEM has a nice snow storm for OKC, LIT, BNA and afterward another NE bomb (boo). There is some postential later but the lack of a true good -NAO in the Euro ensembles has me thinking that January will not be warm, but we may struggle for any significant winter precip events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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