tarheelwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I hope the models show more promise than Carolina's offense. I'm a Carolina grad and fan. They are Awful with a capital A. Its a fluke they've won as many as they have. Need to just go ahead and sit the upperclassmen and let the freshmen play..... they'll win more games. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I just need a threat to be able to apply ice melt. So as long as it a threat light or heavy I will take it Looks like the "threat" is still there. I hate these systems that go down to the bitter end. YOu can see the radar now in the eastern Gulf about to head due north almost, and by 30 hours the GFS has .50" in CLT and .25" in nw NC not quite to the mountains, but in the northern Foothills with surface temps very very close to freezing, with the high remaining inland in Canada through 27 hours, so thats really a close call. Still for most it will be 33 and rain around your area I think, but some places may have some 30 to 32 readings with a decent amount of rain falling, but its close. Don't think its widespread. Just saw the 33 and 36 hours surface and the 32 line is in the Southern apps in general but most of the precip is over by then, so theres a small window for ZR in wrn. NC and wrn VA. This run came much further west with the heavier qpf, running from just east of GSO to AHN line with .50" or greater. Central and eastern Carolinas get an inch in some areas. Best thing is just to watch obs tomorrow and the trends. I use this one myself as well but for whatever reason couldnt get it to zoom out for regional view, just NC. I gave up to easy I guess. Love the 12 off to your east in little washington. Im glad your staying up for euro tonight, It will make it easy for me in the morning, espeacilly if Robert is drinking his coffe right now. Im sure Phil and wow will probably be around also. Im making myself hit the sack after gfs tonight. No question the suspense will keep me up the rest of the week. These 5 day tracks with 1;00 am euro runs way heavy on a man by the 3rd storm in less than a month. I'll be calling it a night after the GFS. Have to get get up super early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I use this one myself as well but for whatever reason couldnt get it to zoom out for regional view, just NC. I gave up to easy I guess. Love the 12 off to your east in little washington. Im glad your staying up for euro tonight, It will make it easy for me in the morning, espeacilly if Robert is drinking his coffee right now. Im sure Phil and wow will probably be around also. Im making myself hit the sack after gfs tonight. No question the suspense will keep me up the rest of the week. These 5 day tracks with 1;00 am euro runs way heavy on a man by the 3rd storm in less than a month. click on radius, next to the "region/zone" tab on the top left hand corner, then set it to 300 miles and click around Augusta GA for the full region view, and select variable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm a Carolina grad and fan. They are Awful with a capital A. Its a fluke they've won as many as they have. Need to just go ahead and sit the upperclassmen and let the freshmen play..... they'll win more games. TW As bad as UNC is, they'll still probably sweep NC State this year. It will be interesting to see what the GFS has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 0z GFS is really wet here for the Monday/Tuesday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Good, we need to wash away that brine from the roads. It's everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the GFS is really digging the s/w through the 4 corners region, but theres not much cold air around I-40 , its well north in fact. Theres a 2nd push of cold air in the northern Plains, it appears the first storm Tue/Wed won't be strong enough to pull much cold air in behind it, now on NAM and GFS. Maybe the Euro will stick by its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 0z GFS is really wet here for the Monday/Tuesday system. 12z GFS from yesterday was a lot wetter: But safe to say the GFS is still showing the heaviest precip line across the central Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Can you PM me? I will buy a ticket a ride his train if he is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks further south than 18z at the 6z hour on Friday. Low is along the Gulf Coast instead of southern AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS isn't good for east of the Apps on late week storm. The cold air is west of the Apps and shows up late, its not a good setup for snow or ice in Ga or the Carolinas. The timing of everything needs to change, still could, but I'd prefer to see cold air in here well in advance of the Friday system, not coming in at the same time..that usually doesn't work east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For the late week system, as others have mentioned the Euro Ens Mean was a little south of the Euro Op...but what I found interesting was that the Euro Op ran the sfc low up the coast for a big hit in the Northeast, but the Ens Mean took the low way off the coast - a better, colder look for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12z GFS from yesterday was a lot wetter: But safe to say the GFS is still showing the heaviest precip line across the central Carolinas. Oh, wow, that would be quite the deluge! I never really looked at the QPF maps for it until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Some very subtle differences at 500 mb in the 00Z GFS from the 12Z run that make a big difference with its resulting weather. The differences in the southern stream are fairly minor (still doesn't amplify the trough into the SW US as much as the ECMWF), but the northern stream is stronger and more separate. This results in a greater push of colder air out of the northern stream, and the resultant surface low is much more suppressed into the northern Gulf than the 12Z run showed. Still doesn't seem to be coming all together on the GFS for a major winter storm, but clearly a threat of at least light wintry precipitation for AR/TN/N MS/N AL/N GA - and it's not too far from being something much more significant. Clearly if the SW US system dug just a little more in this model (more like the ECMWF) it would be a much more substantial risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Some very subtle differences at 500 mb in the 00Z GFS from the 12Z run that make a big difference with its resulting weather. The differences in the southern stream are fairly minor (still doesn't amplify the trough into the SW US as much as the ECMWF), but the northern stream is stronger and more separate. This results in a greater push of colder air out of the northern stream, and the resultant surface low is much more suppressed into the northern Gulf than the 12Z run showed. Still doesn't seem to be coming all together on the GFS for a major winter storm, but clearly a threat of at least light wintry precipitation for AR/TN/N MS/N AL/N GA - and it's not too far from being something much more significant. Clearly if the SW US system dug just a little more in this model (more like the ECMWF) it would be a much more substantial risk. Agree........We want that SW system to dig more than the GFS is currentlyshowing. That's the key to whether or not there will be wintry precip involved. I still believe that the Euro is leading the way on this one. The GFS should play catch up tomorrow. One thing that worries me is the Euro's SW bias but it applies more to cut-off lows in the Southwest (if my memory serves me correctly) I agree with the post Robert made about getting the cold air in here first, If that system digs farther south and slows, it should open the door for the cold to get in here ahead of it. I am surprised that the lead system doesn't pull down more cold than is being shown. It seems weird to me. The lack of high lattitude blocking probably has a lot to do with it. I still like the set-up and it needs to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I just have a hard time putting much stock in the GFS at this timeframe (4-6 days). I much prefer the Euro/CMC/UKMet suite, with the CMC having a tendency to be on the NW side of the guidance with storm tracks (which from the 12z runs it was), and the UKMet having a tendency to be on the SE side of the guidance (which it was). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I just have a hard time putting much stock in the GFS at this timeframe (4-6 days). I much prefer the Euro/CMC/UKMet suite, with the CMC having a tendency to be on the NW side of the guidance with storm tracks (which from the 12z runs it was), and the UKMet having a tendency to be on the SE side of the guidance (which it was). I cant see the 0z friday panel but on 12z Friday it has a bomb off the mid atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I cant see the 0z friday panel but on 12z Friday it has a bomb off the mid atlantic coast. it must really be moving because in 12 hours it goes from south Georgia to DELMARVA... looks kind of odd on the CMC but its definitely a BOMB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it must really be moving because in 12 hours it goes from south Georgia to DELMARVA... looks kind of odd on the CMC but its definitely a BOMB You have the 96 hour panel valid for 0z Friday? I can't get it to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yeah i haven't seen the frames for down here, on the ggem, because i don't know how to get them but looking at the ones in the nyc subforum it goes crazy off of the carolina coast and up the mid atl coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yeah i haven't seen the frames for down here, on the ggem, because i don't know how to get them but looking at the ones in the nyc subforum it goes crazy off of the carolina coast and up the mid atl coast. Here is 108 valid 12z Friday. I can't get the new 96 hour panel http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 You have the 96 hour panel valid for 0z Friday? I can't get it to load. oh crap, sorry, i was wondering how it got that far that fast ,was looking from 96-120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks to me like the GGEM is no good unless you are in central TN and NE from there toward central VA. Too warm. Upper wave consolidates way too far northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks like to me the GGEM is just about the most extreme solution possible as far as phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So ... what did the Euro say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro is a no go... its completely different from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 euro is a no go... its completely different from 12z yea, it actually dampens out the shortwave too much so that there really isn't much of a system. However, given that the GGEM trended more amplified, and the GFS more or less stayed the same... I think its hard to discount any sort of solution at this point... a lot is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 yea, it actually dampens out the shortwave too much so that there really isn't much of a system. However, given that the GGEM trended more amplified, and the GFS more or less stayed the same... I think its hard to discount any sort of solution at this point... a lot is still up in the air. Yep. Dampened out and OTS as well after leaving Florida. Thankfully we have a few more days to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Looks to me like the GGEM is no good unless you are in central TN and NE from there toward central VA. Too warm. Upper wave consolidates way too far northwest. Exactly, and since this is a weather forum for NC, then we should not be concerned about the system, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Exactly, and since this is a weather forum for NC, then we should not be concerned about the system, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.