Shawn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lOOKS LIKE THE EURO HAS THIS ONE SHOWING AS WELL GOING TO BE ANOTHER FUN WEEK OF MOSDEL WATCHING NEXT WEEK!! Neither model is really anything worth talking about from their 00z runs. I got my 10 inches for the year, and really haven't had any good severe weather in years! Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ugh Another winter storm...this snow lovers getting sick of snow. Please come back La Nina haha I'd venture to say you are in the minority on this. Just because we are tired of following models today doesn't mean we are tired of the storms and snow. I'm worn out from this past week or so but I'm already gearing up for the next chase! If that is next week so be it. I'd much rather it be next week then have to wait until February or March before we have are next real threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's a rain event early next week, Just watched Matthew 40's looks like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yep look like the atmosphere isn't going to be there for us, but again it might end up being a good rain event which we need . Looks like the NAO is going positive until late Jan from the main threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yep look like the atmosphere isn't going to be there for us, but again it might end up being a good rain event which we need . Looks like the NAO is going positive until late Jan from the main threads. I agree...The rain would also be nice to wash all the salt and sand off the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wouldn't give up on this system yet. The models and hinting that the ERN PAC/WRN US ridge might briefly go big at about the same time this system comes through. That's usually a strong signal for something wintry in the SE if we can get a few other ingredients in the mix. Now...I'm going to hibernate for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW-- JB says Big ticket winter storm next week...... Monday- Thursday time frame... Low forms in texas moves ne or ene, biggest worry is it's a strong lake cutter surging warm air up the east coast before colder air can get back in. Then colder of the air masses come through OV and mid atlantic comes in behind it. Then I think he's looking for a pattern change. I think most likely it will be north of NC for any wintry treat, except maybe mountains NEVER can count them out this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks like an all rain event at this time, but still going to keep an eye on it, because the models can always change around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 FWIW-- JB says Big ticket winter storm next week...... Monday- Thursday time frame... Low forms in texas moves ne or ene, biggest worry is it's a strong lake cutter surging warm air up the east coast before colder air can get back in. Then colder of the air masses come through OV and mid atlantic comes in behind it. Then I think he's looking for a pattern change. I think most likely it will be north of NC for any wintry treat, except maybe mountains NEVER can count them out this far out. Best news ever. If he is calling for it to be well north we will end up getting 4 inches + out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I briefly glanced at the Euro but not GFS yet. There is going to be a strong PNA and the Polar Vortex is in the climo spot this time of year, meaning a Gulf storm is possible. I wouldn't necessarily write off anything for sure yet. In fact, it wouldn't take much of an error on the op. ECMWF to give a big CAD or Miller A soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 I briefly glanced at the Euro but not GFS yet. There is going to be a strong PNA and the Polar Vortex is in the climo spot this time of year, meaning a Gulf storm is possible. I wouldn't necessarily write off anything for sure yet. In fact, it wouldn't take much of an error on the op. ECMWF to give a big CAD or Miller A soon. Yea would be pretty amazing if we could get one next week...though my gf would not be happy at the thought of me bringing the laptop to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I briefly glanced at the Euro but not GFS yet. There is going to be a strong PNA and the Polar Vortex is in the climo spot this time of year, meaning a Gulf storm is possible. I wouldn't necessarily write off anything for sure yet. In fact, it wouldn't take much of an error on the op. ECMWF to give a big CAD or Miller A soon. Bring it. I have 4 trucks plowing in spartanburg. 8-10 inches on ground with hard glaze of ice. Back home we got more than expected and should have left another truck there to help. Overall great call Robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm not so optimistic... one thing going against us is that there is no 500mb low located in the Northeast Maritimes to keep such a system suppressed. Not saying its impossible, but this past system was so consistent in the modeling because there was no way it could go north of us with such a strong 500mb low in the east. This one has a much better shot of being a lakes cutter. One the more optimistic side... winter is defiantly not over... and I see no signs of a blowtorch warm pattern in the long range... in fact a giant PV sets up in the middle of Canada, and if we see any more Greenland Blocking, it won't take much to shoot the mother-load of cold down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I worry about a big zrain more than rain. Hope it trends colder, or comes in earlier while it is still bitter cold. Atl. thinks it's bad now...just wait until the next huge z rain hits 'em. It'll make this look like childs play. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I briefly glanced at the Euro but not GFS yet. There is going to be a strong PNA and the Polar Vortex is in the climo spot this time of year, meaning a Gulf storm is possible. I wouldn't necessarily write off anything for sure yet. In fact, it wouldn't take much of an error on the op. ECMWF to give a big CAD or Miller A soon. We await your updates. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Bring it. I have 4 trucks plowing in spartanburg. 8-10 inches on ground with hard glaze of ice. Back home we got more than expected and should have left another truck there to help. Overall great call Robert Yeah, the Triad seemed to uncharacteristically caught off guard by this one. Roads are not as plowed and clear as the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Looks too warm next week. If we get anything, it will be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 All guidance is being too warm for much if any winter wx. JMA, ECMWF, GGEM, GFS. The way the Euro has picked these past storms up so far out, I'm inclined to believe it'll be too warm for sure. Maybe we can get a good setup around mid/late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Verbatim, everything looks too warm in the guidance for anything other than rain at this point. However, I would watch for high pressure coming down out of Canada into the Plains. See if that trends stronger and/or moves into a position for better CAD. The GFS is hinting at a Miller B. Details are much to sketchy right now, but models often underestimate the strength of CAD this far out. Don't just pay attention to the 850s and where the trough is, right now. Still, it's likely to be rain, but keep an eye on any cadding that might appear in future runs. I could see this trend toward an icing event, at least for part of the storm....not so much snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah, the Triad seemed to uncharacteristically caught off guard by this one. Roads are not as plowed and clear as the Christmas storm. Hard to plow 1/2" off the pavement. They've done fine around here and weren't caught off guard. Brine put out on Saturday. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Verbatim, everything looks too warm in the guidance for anything other than rain at this point. However, I would watch for high pressure coming down out of Canada into the Plains. See if that trends stronger and/or moves into a position for better CAD. The GFS is hinting at a Miller B. Details are much to sketchy right now, but models often underestimate the strength of CAD this far out. Don't just pay attention to the 850s and where the trough is, right now. Still, it's likely to be rain, but keep an eye on any cadding that might appear in future runs. I could see this trend toward an icing event, at least for part of the storm....not so much snow, though. I tend to agree for the most part. The only problem is we haven't had typical/classic cad in forever. Really, whene was the last time we had a true, classic, strong cad? This winter has been different, so maybe they'll start to show up again. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Interesting Euro run today. Day 6 has a 1001 surface low over central texas with a little 1024 high nosing SE from the Dakotas. At Day 7, though, the surface low is over NW Alabama (a strong one, too -- sub 1000) and the high has slid east just north of the Great Lakes. Looks like a little damming signature at the surface, but the 850s are very high. Also, the high is oriented west to east -- usually it's the ones elongated north to south that help our CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hard to plow 1/2" off the pavement. They've done fine around here and weren't caught off guard. Brine put out on Saturday. TW Only 1/2 inches? 2- 3.5 inches in Forsyth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hard to plow 1/2" off the pavement. They've done fine around here and weren't caught off guard. Brine put out on Saturday. TW If it's the same stuff that we have here, it's practically unplowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If it's the same stuff that we have here, it's practically unplowable. It's amazing here in the south how just a lack of falling precip and the roads improve. The main roads up here look 10x times better even compared to this morning. The big problem is the lack on sun to dry the road. Re-freeze is going to be an issue through the entire week. The big difference though between yesterday and Christmas was that the temps were much, much lower at the onset yesterday and that the onset occured during the middle of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Only 1/2 inches? 2- 3.5 inches in Forsyth County. Okay, maybe an inch on the secondary roads in Guilford county. The problem driving has nothing to do with the snow depth, but the ice on the roads. Tonight will get bad if it gets cold enough. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The most interesting thing to me on the euro is the mother load of cold air at the US/CAN border day 10. It has some -40C 850mb contours which is nuts. If that PV were to stall out over the border up there, it would set us up for the mother of all overrunning icestorm patterns. In fact, my favorite storm of all time had a similar setup (feb 1, 96). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The most interesting thing to me on the euro is the mother load of cold air at the US/CAN border day 10. It has some -40C 850mb contours which is nuts. If that PV were to stall out over the border up there, it would set us up for the mother of all overrunning icestorm patterns. In fact, my favorite storm of all time had a similar setup (feb 1, 96). Yea, I just looked at JB's afternoon update. He said day 12 GFS has temps in the 40's for Iowa, and Euro had near 20 below temps. lol Just a little model disagreement 60 degrees that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The most interesting thing to me on the euro is the mother load of cold air at the US/CAN border day 10. It has some -40C 850mb contours which is nuts. If that PV were to stall out over the border up there, it would set us up for the mother of all overrunning icestorm patterns. In fact, my favorite storm of all time had a similar setup (feb 1, 96). This is the kind of crap we always see at day 10. I'd love to see it come to fruition, but you will never see this kind of prog on a 24 hour forecast map. Of course, I'm being overly dramatic using the word "never", but it so rarely ever makes it into the near term. Anyway, the Euro has really been building the cold air up in Canada, so who knows. It'll be interesting to watch, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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