Lookout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Youre right Lookout it has been wrong many times. However the 2000 ice storm was two weeks to the day of thunder. I remember your boy Glen Burns saying the night of the thunder to watch out in two weeks. I guess hes a blind squirrel. If I said it normally comes an icestorm within two weeks of me having a two flusher crap, there is absolutely no connection between the two but chances are every once in a while that will come true lol. The fact is we have 8 to 10 weeks or so climo speaking to pick up icestorms in the winter IIRC from larry. Two weeks is 20 to 25% of the season, so naturally the odds favor an icestorm falling within that period of time after a storm at some point. The fact is, It's easy to remember the times it happens but all the times it doesn't isn't remembered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As currently advertised, this is a broad area of elongated lp, sw-ne... Lookout pointed out this fact earlier, but there are still sig differences in the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Based on the 12z ECMWF panels from inaccuwx pro, the Euro was very close to a phase at 132 and 138 hrs, with the leading southern stream vort, just south of the TX/LA boarder in the Gulf, and a stronger backside parcel working through NM. The first piece got sheered out and not completely captured, and the result was an almost full latitude upper trough going closed low off the Delmarva. The 12z EC H5 abs vort panels looked like a fireworks show, for the duration of the run, with many vorts coming into play just for this event. Case in point, this is a highly fluid setup with many players, as Robert mentioned, it could go either way. A couple of the 12z GFS members had a 970 bomb from DC to NY state, inland runner... That imo was likely a result of the two main players the 12z op Euro showed, phasing a little early to do us any good. You know it is getting serious when NCEP in coordination with the NHC starts flying winter weather recon missions, we have not seen that this season, and you can bet your sweet biffy they are not doing it on SE potential alone. FWIW, the euro ensembles agree pretty well with the operational run. The ensemble mean is maybe a little south of the operational (temp and precip) but it's really close for being 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FWIW, the euro ensembles agree pretty well with the operational run. The ensemble mean is maybe a little south of the operational (temp and precip) but it's really close for being 5 days out. I would assume most of us would want it further south, anyways, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 For what its worth the GGEM ensembles where futher south than the operational as well. 35 outside and I could definetly feel the NE wind getting cranked up. Im not expecting anything other than 32.6 +and rain tomorrow evening, but it should be fun watching seeing if old man winter can shag off a degree in the triad region Monday night and slick-up the limbs by Tuesday morning, once again out-dueling the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FWIW, the euro ensembles agree pretty well with the operational run. The ensemble mean is maybe a little south of the operational (temp and precip) but it's really close for being 5 days out. That is a good thing Lookout, as we have both the 12z EC and 18z GFS ens means south of the op. I mentioned yesterday that I was more worried about suppression in this setup, as it is not really a CAD deal, more like an Artic hp crashing in on the backside with some phasing potential. Still feel strongly about that, as most of the ens clustering I have seen shows a strong hp coming into the plains, with some suggesting it could bottom out in TX. I would assume most of us would want it further south, anyways, right? I am staying up for the EC tonight, school work is done for the week, and I am ahead for the next. First time since the period leading up to the Christmas storm I think I have stayed up for a 0z EC run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Heres the current DP's upstream that will be coming down tonight via way of a 1024-1030 HP. Not sure if /how much moisture NC is gonna get, espeacilly in the NW part. yesterday the NAM was given the eastern part of NC like an inch plus. Still im way more interested in the late week system. Who knows, maybe we can get a solution to work out again that gets all of us in TN/GA/Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Who's going to be Dickie V tonight? I think that would be cool to have a live Dickie V'ish PBP of the Euro. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Heres the current DP's upstream that will be coming down tonight via way of a 1024-1030 HP. Not sure if /how much moisture NC is gonna get, espeacilly in the NW part. yesterday the NAM was given the eastern part of NC like an inch plus. Still im way more interested in the late week system. Who knows, maybe we can get a solution to work out again that gets all of us in TN/GA/Carolinas. Some pretty dry air in the ne, But I'm not sure if the hp will be strong enough and stay put long enough to push the real dry air in here ? If precip was coming in tomorrow morning then I think we would have a problem in the northern sections, But coming in late tomorrow I doubt there will be much ZR if any in the foothills. Currently 35/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I found the mid 90's storm that lasted for 30 hours. Blizzard of 96! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It seems like the Christmas storm started way north and later shifted south, but i think that was due to the good blocking in Greenland. It doesn't seem like we have that blocking for this weekend so am I right to say we probably will not see a significant shift south with the track this time? It seems like if it goes where's it's currently shown, it's mostly a rain event for the upstate. 40N is another question. That's a different world it seems up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Some pretty dry air in the ne, But I'm not sure if the hp will be strong enough and stay put long enough to push the real dry air in here ? If precip was coming in tomorrow morning then I think we would have a problem in the northern sections, But coming in late tomorrow I doubt there will be much ZR if any in the foothills. Currently 35/26 Totally agree. Figured I'd pass time turning over all leafs. definetly not expecting anything other than cold light rain down my way. You however could see a 6-12 hour period if the timing was better, but as you stated tomorrow evening is to late due to our weak HP sliding out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 After reading through it is my understanding that since my mix is still on the ground after 7 days, and I heard thunder within the last two weeks...then all it takes now is for Lookout to have a 2 flusher, and we are all going to get zrain? Heaven help us!! Please, we need that boy to eat something that will plug him up! No zrain, no zrain.... so no gulf lows to enter Ga. All stay in Fla. for the rest of the winter. Pull that cold air south all the way up the column. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 After reading through it is my understanding that since my mix is still on the ground after 7 days, and I heard thunder within the last two weeks...then all it takes now is for Lookout to have a 2 flusher, and we are all going to get zrain? Heaven help us!! Please, we need that boy to eat something that will plug him up! No zrain, no zrain.... so no gulf lows to enter Ga. All stay in Fla. for the rest of the winter. Pull that cold air south all the way up the column. T Ha!Ha!Ha! That is what it sounded like. I'll go back to lurking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Finally analyzing some model data. Here's to an I-40 special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 the nam looks warm and north through 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 FWIW, the euro ensembles agree pretty well with the operational run. The ensemble mean is maybe a little south of the operational (temp and precip) but it's really close for being 5 days out. I think this is a really important point. Usually if the op ECMWF is going to be way off at the timerange we are talking there is some hint of it in its ensemble. The ensemble and the op look to be in very good agreement through at least day 6, which would give even more confidence that the ECMWF is on to something. The fact that the other operational models have been trending toward it also would be supportive, although the EC also has a bias of overdigging energy toward the SW US which is a reason to potentially not buy wholly on its solution quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here's something interesting I just found. JB 9:30 pm update For many from the interior Carolinas to the interior northeast, ice, not snow, is the big problem Monday night and Tuesday. What the heck ? It looks to be a very slight chance of Ice for here I thought ? But of all people JB is on the ICE TRAIN for tomorrow night..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Leading up to the 0z runs, 18z GEFS at 850, 114 hrs, it only gets colder from here... 18z GEFS 24hr precip prog, valid 138hrs Full run see here: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gens/18/model_m.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Who's going to be Dickie V tonight? I think that would be cool to have a live Dickie V'ish PBP of the Euro. TW I hope the models show more promise than Carolina's offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here's something interesting I just found. JB 9:30 pm update For many from the interior Carolinas to the interior northeast, ice, not snow, is the big problem Monday night and Tuesday. What the heck ? It looks to be a very slight chance of Ice for here I thought ? But of all people JB is on the ICE TRAIN for tomorrow night..... it should be really light if any, and most of that chance will be far western NC butted right up against the mountains, where teh least precip actually gets. Aloft its not too warm, so I wouldn't be surprised if its snow through Tuesday night for whatever falls in the high mountains.I don't think its going to be a real ice storm anywhere around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here's something interesting I just found. JB 9:30 pm update For many from the interior Carolinas to the interior northeast, ice, not snow, is the big problem Monday night and Tuesday. What the heck ? It looks to be a very slight chance of Ice for here I thought ? But of all people JB is on the ICE TRAIN for tomorrow night..... I will buy a ticket a ride his train if he is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Here's something interesting I just found. JB 9:30 pm update For many from the interior Carolinas to the interior northeast, ice, not snow, is the big problem Monday night and Tuesday. What the heck ? It looks to be a very slight chance of Ice for here I thought ? But of all people JB is on the ICE TRAIN for tomorrow night..... Not sure what he's looking at. Did he specifically say as to why he believed such would occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not sure what he's looking at. Did he specifically say as to why he believed such would occur? He's probably just basing it off of the "AccuModel", which is Accuweathers in-house model, which is always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Heres the current DP's upstream that will be coming down tonight via way of a 1024-1030 HP. Not sure if /how much moisture NC is gonna get, espeacilly in the NW part. yesterday the NAM was given the eastern part of NC like an inch plus. Still im way more interested in the late week system. Who knows, maybe we can get a solution to work out again that gets all of us in TN/GA/Carolinas. Much better source than TWC NCSN... http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=NC&address=&type=&noho=&rawsflag=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it should be really light if any, and most of that chance will be far western NC butted right up against the mountains, where teh least precip actually gets. Aloft its not too warm, so I wouldn't be surprised if its snow through Tuesday night for whatever falls in the high mountains.I don't think its going to be a real ice storm anywhere around here. Yea, I'm not looking for anything at all, But what I really was showing how JB hardly ever even mentions the Carolinas and we have next to nothing chance of Ice threat (outside of mountains) and He mentions it. lol If it was coming in tomorrow morning then it would be a different game ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not sure what he's looking at. Did he specifically say as to why he believed such would occur? No not really, said air is just cold enough. He just went on to say how messy it would be from DC - NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Not sure what he's looking at. Did he specifically say as to why he believed such would occur? JB can be a "gunslinger". He is probably hedging on the HP being stronger and the CAD being more robust or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I know there is no science or truth behind the saying Lookout. I didnt mean to get you all riled up bringing up Burns and all. Since tradition and sayings have to start somewhere Im going to teach my son and whoever else will listen that if they here news of a Mr. Lookout in NE GA having a two flusher in the months of January and February then an icestorm is coming in two weeks. All we need is for it to come true once and it should catch on pretty easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it should be really light if any, and most of that chance will be far western NC butted right up against the mountains, where teh least precip actually gets. Aloft its not too warm, so I wouldn't be surprised if its snow through Tuesday night for whatever falls in the high mountains.I don't think its going to be a real ice storm anywhere around here. I just need a threat to be able to apply ice melt. So as long as it a threat light or heavy I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Much better source than TWC NCSN... http://mesowest.utah...oho=&rawsflag=3 I use this one myself as well but for whatever reason couldnt get it to zoom out for regional view, just NC. I gave up to easy I guess. Love the 12 off to your east in little washington. Im glad your staying up for euro tonight, It will make it easy for me in the morning, espeacilly if Robert is drinking his coffee right now. Im sure Phil and wow will probably be around also. Im making myself hit the sack after gfs tonight. No question the suspense will keep me up the rest of the week. These 5 day tracks with 1;00 am euro runs way heavy on a man by the 3rd storm in less than a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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