Wow Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I've learned that when folks say "precip is minimal" or "this storm is a nonevent" or "I'm not impressed with this storm", they're talking about for their own backyard. Human nature I suppose. Not really. The maps I based it from aren't the best to estimate from after checking the actual numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GSP is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 this winter looks far from being over and this is the winter that we were not supposed to get much in winter precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I agree with Hickory about how this may play out, just reading between the lines approach. The next s/w digs pretty strongly then rounds the bend. Overrunning very extensive ahead of it, the only question right now is how far south the main axis is, and how far south the cold air is. With a 1032 high, thats moderately strong, certainly not weak at all, and the cold should easily get down to 40 corridor, which is common in this setup , but I wouldn't be surprised to see it come in colder later runs. That may be a long duration event, and a good one at that, with some areas getting maybe .75" to 1.00" from that event, which would be a major winter storm if the surface temps support it. Right now that would favor the Apps and west, since it would be a while to push it down the east side of the Apps toward ne GA and Upstate, but its a ways off. Maybe more importantly, I think the next s/w will come into view better on the next runs and already it looks very strong on some models, so depending on where that goes, there may be only a short break before the next event, whatever that is. i'd really like to see the high edge up towards 1036 (or higher lol)....a stronger wedge could send a bit colder air a bit farther south into parts of n ga. hopefully something happens this week, otherwise after the great snows and some ice, n ga will be back to 33 or 34 and rain for the early week event (not that there is much moisture) and the end of the week one edited to add: i just saw the gsp forecast for mby on thur and ffc's for the counties just adjacent. just a little discrepancy lol GSP Thursday Night and Friday Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower 40s. FFC Thursday Night Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain or snow showers. Lows around 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I agree with Hickory about how this may play out, just reading between the lines approach. The next s/w digs pretty strongly then rounds the bend. Overrunning very extensive ahead of it, the only question right now is how far south the main axis is, and how far south the cold air is. With a 1032 high, thats moderately strong, certainly not weak at all, and the cold should easily get down to 40 corridor, which is common in this setup, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it come in colder later runs. That may be a long duration event, and a good one at that, with some areas getting maybe .75" to 1.00" from that event, which would be a major winter storm if the surface temps support it. Right now that would favor the Apps and west, since it would be a while to push it down the east side of the Apps toward ne GA and Upstate, but its a ways off. Maybe more importantly, I think the next s/w will come into view better on the next runs and already it looks very strong on some models, so depending on where that goes, there may be only a short break before the next event, whatever that is. I have a feeling this is going to be a north carolina special. Upon closer inspection, it doesn't look like south of nc will recieve much if anything. No idea what the uk temps are like but that sure looks like a favorable track even for ga though. However, the low is stretched out a bit like the euro. The euro has the low stretched out it would appear and not terribly organized. If that low can tighten up a bit, that would likely increase CAA and help the cold air move further south. But right now, that's not the case. It's been a while since north carolina got a significant winter storm while ga got just cold rain, it's probably long overdue. *Edit*: I should say caa in general as there is not any appreciable high to the north, rather it would be driven mainly by the low itself which would be more broad and not limited to the damming regions I would think. The recon flights will hopefully help clear things up a little. It will be interesting to see what effects their measurements have on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 nothing to get excited over, we are still days away. looks like potential is there Agreed. Looks like rain for this area which i'm fine with. It's also nice in my opinion to finally see some warmer temps for this upcoming week. I still have snow on the ground from the system that dumped here a week ago. Very rare to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That is pretty robust Classic CAD... if this verifies, areas into SC and GA will get in on the action before the end of the event. The high is not super intense, but the source region is sub -20 degrees C at 850mb. Given that 850mb temps are -6 degrees C into parts of WNC, I'd say the surface temps below freezing in a classic damming regime are getting a bit further south than that. Only thing I really don't know about is Precipitation at this time interval. The problem though is all the precip is over by that time. Euro doesn't show much of anything falling after 144. At the time of the low passage and the majority of the precip is here, there is not much damming at all. Indeed this is reflected in the euro's surface temps which show a very flat SW to NE pattern, with the freezing line at 120 going from extreme southwest nc (mountains) to north of GSO near the va border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I have a feeling this is going to be a north carolina and Tennessee special. I had to fix this. Tennessee looks to be very much in play. imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm quite intrigued at the possibilities with this storm. Hopefully, the Euro can maintain relative run-to-run continuity, then my confidence will rise. This range is in the Euro's wheelhouse, so I'd side moreso with its solution at the moment, though as we get within three days, it's time to dump the Euro to some degree in favor of the GFS and the NAM and other higher resolution models, culminating with the RUC and radar during nowcasting. Will the recon flight's data be included in the 0z model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z ukmet seems to be in line with Euro. Has Low leaving Texas Day 4 and crossing Florida panahandle day 5 Friday I love the positioning of that LP for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I had to fix this. Tennessee looks to be very much in play. imo The 18z GFS just nailed East Tenn. Not much of a warm nose on this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm quite intrigued at the possibilities with this storm. Hopefully, the Euro can maintain relative run-to-run continuity, then my confidence will rise. This range is in the Euro's wheelhouse, so I'd side moreso with its solution at the moment, though as we get within three days, it's time to dump the Euro to some degree in favor of the GFS and the NAM and other higher resolution models, culminating with the RUC and radar during nowcasting. Will the recon flight's data be included in the 0z model runs? I asked the same question. Really it's euro day 3-5, then gfs /Can/Ukie/Euro Day 3, Then inside 48 Nam/GFS, Once inside 24 RUC/Radar/Nowcasting. Interesting discussion from HPC, they like us hear the euro barking. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN SHOULD BRING AN OFFSHORE/SANTA ANA EVENT TO CA WED INTO THURS. A DIFUSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE GLFMEX COAST FRI AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST BY SAT. RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST FRI WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE INTERIOR PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBILY THE MID ATLC COASTAL PLAIN AS PER 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN/GFS AND CMC. SOME GAIN IN FORECAST CONFIDENCE BUT STILL LOW. AN OVERALL BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP COAST TO COAST WILL KEEP MOST OF CONUS BELOW NORMAL LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm quite intrigued at the possibilities with this storm. Hopefully, the Euro can maintain relative run-to-run continuity, then my confidence will rise. This range is in the Euro's wheelhouse, so I'd side moreso with its solution at the moment, though as we get within three days, it's time to dump the Euro to some degree in favor of the GFS and the NAM and other higher resolution models, culminating with the RUC and radar during nowcasting. Will the recon flight's data be included in the 0z model runs? Tuesday at 0z and 12z 000NOUS42 KNHC 161830 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0130 PM EST SUN 16 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-047 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. A65/ DROP 10 (STIFF)/ 18/0000Z B. AFXXX 10WSA TRACK65 C. 17/1800Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/0200Z FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 A. A65/ DROP 10 (STIFF)/ 18/1200Z B. AFXXX 11WSA TRACK65 C. 18/0615Z D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/1400Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: WC-130 WINTER STORM MISSION TASKED ON WSPOD 10-046 WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Cold rain on the 18z GFS, except for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The 18z GFS just nailed East Tenn. Not much of a warm nose on this run! Id like to see this another 50+ miles futher south, but who can be picky with the gfs 5 days out. Good bet a storm/event is coming, just up in the air which model can nail the exact track down. I know who I'll be hedging my bets on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Most storms this year have taken a pretty similar track. Much like last year, ill go with the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Id like to see this another 50+ miles futher south, but who can be picky with the gfs 5 days out. Good bet a storm/event is coming, just up in the air which model can nail the exact track down. I know who I'll be hedging my bets on. The 12z Euro has that southern stream sw south of Port Arthur TX at 132hrs, huge difference between the 2 models, especially when the Euro has a very strong second parcel coming through NM and AZ at this time, and the GFS shows nothing of the like. This is a resolution issue imo, and the EC will likely once again reign supreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I had to fix this. Tennessee looks to be very much in play. imo True but I normally don't compare my weather to TN because often times it takes totally different setups to get winter storms there than on the east side of the appalachians. Btw, the euro has most of tn in the 0.25 to 0.50 range...with 0.50 in the mountains. It also implies an area of sleet and/or freezing rain across southern sections into extreme northern ms and extreme northern al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 With all of the snowpack over the country it seems that this would trend colder if anything. I know GA is on the sidelines right now but things have trended in our favor all season. I wouldnt bet against the same thing happening again. if i remember right this upcoming weekend will be two weeks from some thunder we had. The old saying is thunder in January means an ice storm in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 With all of the snowpack over the country it seems that this would trend colder if anything. I know GA is on the sidelines right now but things have trended in our favor all season. I wouldnt bet against the same thing happening again. if i remember right this upcoming weekend will be two weeks from some thunder we had. The old saying is thunder in January means an ice storm in two weeks. That saying has been wrong quite a few times lol As for this system, it would take a significant shift south to benefit us. But even if we miss out on this one, we at least pick up some good rains. Which I really wouldn't mind at all. Plus it's interesting to see the gfs in the long to very long range continues to show one southern stream system after another with cold air not that far away. If this is even close to right, there is a decent shot imho of us getting hit again over the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the 18z GFS fwiw, has more warmth ahead of the system esp. east side of the Apps, and hits northern and western Tenn pretty hard. For areas like the Upstate and srn NC and ne GA we need to get a good supply of colder air in following the Wednesday storm, and have the southwest system dig even further south than the GFS, more like the Euro. Still time for this to trend either way, but it does look likely for Ark/Tn/Ky and maybe nrn Miss and western/Nrn NC to get a Winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Youre right Lookout it has been wrong many times. However the 2000 ice storm was two weeks to the day of thunder. I remember your boy Glen Burns saying the night of the thunder to watch out in two weeks. I guess hes a blind squirrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 In my opinion, that is more than likely a ZR for ATL-AHN being displayed by the 18Z GFS run for 1/26 based on that sfc sig. along with those 850's *****fwiw*****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Still a long ways out but it needs to be watched i suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow! I will be up in the NC mountains so that certainly looks interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 \ why is the slp so far north and precip 12 to 18hrs behind lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Colder, wetter, I'll take it. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 why is the slp so far north and precip 12 to 18hrs behind lol As currently advertised, this is a broad area of elongated lp, sw-ne... Lookout pointed out this fact earlier, but there are still sig differences in the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Based on the 12z ECMWF panels from inaccuwx pro, the Euro was very close to a phase at 132 and 138 hrs, with the leading southern stream vort, just south of the TX/LA boarder in the Gulf, and a stronger backside parcel working through NM. The first piece got sheered out and not completely captured, and the result was an almost full latitude upper trough going closed low off the Delmarva. The 12z EC H5 abs vort panels looked like a fireworks show, for the duration of the run, with many vorts coming into play just for this event. Case in point, this is a highly fluid setup with many players, as Robert mentioned, it could go either way. A couple of the 12z GFS members had a 970 bomb from DC to NY state, inland runner... That imo was likely a result of the two main players the 12z op Euro showed, phasing a little early to do us any good. You know it is getting serious when NCEP in coordination with the NHC starts flying winter weather recon missions, we have not seen that this season, and you can bet your sweet biffy they are not doing it on SE potential alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As currently advertised, this is a broad area of elongated lp, sw-ne... Lookout pointed out this fact earlier, but there are still sig differences in the deterministic and ensemble guidance. Based on the 12z ECMWF panels from inaccuwx pro, the Euro was very close to a phase at 132 and 138 hrs, with the leading southern stream vort, just south of the TX/LA boarder in the Gulf, and a stronger backside parcel working through NM. The first piece got sheered out and not completely captured, and the result was an almost full latitude upper trough going closed low off the Delmarva. The 12z EC H5 abs vort panels looked like a fireworks show, for the duration of the run, with many vorts coming into play just for this event. Case in point, this is a highly fluid setup with many players, as Robert mentioned, it could go either way. A couple of the 12z GFS members had a 970 bomb from DC to NY state, inland runner... That imo was likely a result of the two main players the 12z op Euro showed, phasing a little early to do us any good. You know it is getting serious when NCEP in coordination with the NHC starts flying winter weather recon missions, we have not seen that this season, and you can bet your sweet biffy they are not doing it on SE potential alone. Good post......I agree...... They see the potential, and the data that gets ingested from the recon missions may help clear the air somewhat, I just have a gut feeling that the gun is loaded and one of these systems is going to be historic. Not saying this is the one, but with all the chances we are getting this winter, you got to like the odds. As Robert mentioned earlier, it would appear that the Euro has a better handle on how things will play out. Interesting week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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