NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just going off the 24 hr incriments off plymouth, Day 6 frame is the warmest for 850's in NC and drawing a line from Charlotte to RDU is where the 0line appears to set up, then trends much colder on backside as storm goes up the coast. This run is a Mayberry speacil. Big Frosty must have tinkered with the mechanics all his qpf would be snow. Day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Rough estimates of total qpf? First system and second system? Thanks TW RDU 0.61" (round 1, 850's -1C, sfc 1-2C, 1000-500mb thick 545) RDU 0.40" (round 2, 850's 4C, sfc -0.5C, 1000-500mb thick 548) GSO 0.48" (round 1, 850's -1-2C, sfc 1C, 1000-500mb thick 544) GSO 0.27" (round 2, 850's 1C, sfc -2-3, 1000-500mb thick 544) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 What's with the marginal temps through the event, though? We are really going to need the cold to press farther south if we're going to get a widespread winter storm out of this. Otherwise, many areas are looking at a Cold Rain. Not saying it can't trend that way, but it's a fine line as shown. Guess it's better than a torch, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The Euro 12z looks like it's holding too much energy back between 120-144 hr...Foothills may have pointed to that feature. My guess is that this run is incorrect because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 RDU 0.61" (round 1, 850's -1C, sfc 1-2C, 1000-500mb thick 545) RDU 0.40" (round 2, 850's 4C, sfc -0.5C, 1000-500mb thick 548) GSO 0.48" (round 1, 850's -1-2C, sfc 1C, 1000-500mb thick 544) GSO 0.27" (round 2, 850's 1C, sfc -2-3, 1000-500mb thick 544) Thanks. That puts things in perspective for now. Nothing historic, but a nice winter storm for some areas. Seems the Canadian and JMA are on board as well. Much can change - hopefully for colder and wetter. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 nothing to get excited over, we are still days away. looks like potential is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 its a good little precip event, maybe .50" around LIT MEM BNA AVL HKY. Make that .75" in some areas. It scoots off the Southeast coast without going up the coast it appears. Is this before or after the second impulse comes and brings the storm up the coast? In any event, this is exactly what I thought I was going to see from the euro... the trend is a bit further south than the 00z run as the northern stream features are dominating the pattern. The Greenland block develops at just the right time to lock in the cold air to the northeast, extending a continuous supply of cold into the favored damming regions. Another important mark is that we are now at 120 hours showing this features, a range that typically has the euro beating up on the GFS and Canadian in regards to the 500mb pattern. Also the pogged Euro 500mb pattern has a z score during the 5 day range greater than .9... which indicates a very high correlation between the modeled heights and the actual verification. So I think its safe to say there will be a system... and it will take the next 5 days to nail down what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thanks. That puts things in perspective for now. Nothing historic, but a nice winter storm for some areas. Seems the Canadian and JMA are on board as well. Much can change - hopefully for colder and wetter. TW Also the GFS is trying to trend towards these other solutions, but it's not quite there. I love how we are getting storms in a relatively close in time. We aren't waiting a month for the next winter storm to pop up, but rather a week. A very successful winter as far as snow goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here's what you want to see happen for the best possible winter storm. We need the southern stream system that is heading towards the southwest day 4, to stay as unsheared as possible and dig as far south as possible. What that does is steepens the flow for the overrunning to start well ahead of it. The initial surge of moisture is all driven by the resultant jetstreak. Then as it nears TX, we would want the northern stream s/w over the dakatos to drop down and phase with it, sending the surface low up the coast. What would result is a long duration type storm. You get the overrunning out ahead and then the phased low pressure second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here's what you want to see happen for the best possible winter storm. We need the southern stream system that is heading towards the southwest day 4, to stay as unsheared as possible and dig as far south as possible. What that does is steepens the flow for the overrunning to start well ahead of it. The initial surge of moisture is all driven by the resultant jetstreak. Then as it nears TX, we would want the northern stream s/w over the dakatos to drop down and phase with it, sending the surface low up the coast. What would result is a long duration type storm. You get the overrunning out ahead and then the phased low pressure second. I'd take it as is. I'm a little surprise the second system isn't coming in a bit wetter. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That is pretty robust Classic CAD... if this verifies, areas into SC and GA will get in on the action before the end of the event. The high is not super intense, but the source region is sub -20 degrees C at 850mb. Given that 850mb temps are -6 degrees C into parts of WNC, I'd say the surface temps below freezing in a classic damming regime are getting a bit further south than that. Only thing I really don't know about is Precipitation at this time interval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Taken literally, ECMWF soundings show all snow for RDU round 1. Surface temps are in the 33-35 range, but it is below freezing all the way down to just off the surface. Round 2 looks to be brief snow to freezing rain. Lots of model disagreement with this system so confidence is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That is pretty robust Classic CAD... if this verifies, areas into SC and GA will get in on the action before the end of the event. The high is not super intense, but the source region is sub -20 degrees C at 850mb. Given that 850mb temps are -6 degrees C into parts of WNC, I'd say the surface temps below freezing in a classic damming regime are getting a bit further south than that. Only thing I really don't know about is Precipitation at this time interval. Position is good, strength is adequate but certainly not the best I have seen. Love it about 1032 or stronger for ideal CAD. But this would be enough to get the job done and as you said the source region is the coldest air mass of the season. Of course the GFS and GGEM are differing so confidence in any scenario is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here's what you want to see happen for the best possible winter storm. We need the southern stream system that is heading towards the southwest day 4, to stay as unsheared as possible and dig as far south as possible. What that does is steepens the flow for the overrunning to start well ahead of it. The initial surge of moisture is all driven by the resultant jetstreak. Then as it nears TX, we would want the northern stream s/w over the dakatos to drop down and phase with it, sending the surface low up the coast. What would result is a long duration type storm. You get the overrunning out ahead and then the phased low pressure second. Wow, doesn't that seem like alot? I'm not too excited about needing those things to happen to get a winter storm. Perfect timing issues (and phasing); especially with marginal temperature events don't seem to work out in the upstate. I'd feel alot better if we were just dealing with a good old fashioned overrunning event with cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wow, doesn't that seem like alot? I'm not too excited about needing those things to happen to get a winter storm. Perfect timing issues (and phasing); especially with marginal temperature events don't seem to work out in the upstate. I'd feel alot better if we were just dealing with a good old fashioned overrunning event with cold air in place. i think several storms this winter (and last) had to have a lot of things just right (it basically takes a near perfect set up to get a good winter storm in teh se) - and they have. so far this year, the times things have worked out have far outweighed those that didnt. so it may sound like a lot, but with king euro showing something interesting, it certainly has a lot of our attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 24 hrs ago the board was dead. Now it is totally different as most all models are at least showing some sort of system or systems from late Thursday through Sunday. Trend is our friend. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Position is good, strength is adequate but certainly not the best I have seen. Love it about 1032 or stronger for ideal CAD. But this would be enough to get the job done and as you said the source region is the coldest air mass of the season. Of course the GFS and GGEM are differing so confidence in any scenario is low. According to European, precip is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 24 hrs ago the board was dead. Now it is totally different as most all models are at least showing some sort of system or systems from late Thursday through Sunday. Trend is our friend. TW My website does the same thing, nice weather it's sloooooow, bad weather, it's busy as crap. I can always go back and look at my stats and see when the bad weather was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here's what you want to see happen for the best possible winter storm. We need the southern stream system that is heading towards the southwest day 4, to stay as unsheared as possible and dig as far south as possible. What that does is steepens the flow for the overrunning to start well ahead of it. The initial surge of moisture is all driven by the resultant jetstreak. Then as it nears TX, we would want the northern stream s/w over the dakatos to drop down and phase with it, sending the surface low up the coast. What would result is a long duration type storm. You get the overrunning out ahead and then the phased low pressure second. Didnt we have a storm in the mid 90's that was a long duration event. Seems like 36 hours, nothing heavy but steady. Id love a 3 day storm, espeacilly if its in the form of snow. Also someone mentioned earlier, youd think round 2 with a coastal, would yield more qpf than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Didnt we have a storm in the mid 90's that was a long duration event. Seems like 36 hours, nothing heavy but steady. Id love a 3 day storm, espeacilly if its in the form of snow. Also someone mentioned earlier, youd think round 2 with a coastal, would yield more qpf than advertised. It's possible the euro han't fullly resolved how this will end. I think it's becoming likey there will be overrunning out ahead of this wave, but whether or not we have a full phased blockbuster type situation is pretty unclear at this point.All you have to do is look at what it prints out for DC north to see what we would get if it works out in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This winter is reminding me so much of the "normal" winters we had here in NC in the 1970s. We always have a few of good 4"+ storms and several smaller events, well into March. I hope we are cycling back to a more general pattern like we had then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's possible the euro han't fullly resolved how this will end. I think it's becoming likey there will be overrunning out ahead of this wave, but whether or not we have a full phased blockbuster type situation is pretty unclear at this point.All you have to do is look at what it prints out for DC north to see what we would get if it works out in our favor. agree, i think the gfs is playing catch up with the euro just as it has on nearly every system this year. i would say in the next couple days the gfs will really come around to the idea of a more significant overrunning event but the 2nd side of this whole deal may not be settled right up until go time. if this thing does phase it will most likely go up the coast and atleast graze dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Not to troll your regional thread, but there are some Special Launches scheduled shortly to your W...along with Winter RECON missions… NOUS42 KWNO 161339 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1337Z SUN JAN 16 2011..CORRECTION...RELEASE SONDES TODAY NOT TOMORROW... THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME.. 12Z RAOB RECAP... KPP/78970 - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS... NCEP HPC IS REQUESTING 18Z SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY 1/16 FROM THE FOLLOWING STATES TX..LA..OK..AR..THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING UPPER AIR SITES..72249 FWD..72250 BRO..72251 CRP..72261 DRT..72265 MAF..72363 AMA..72364 EPZ..72240 LCH..72248 SHV..72233 LIX..72340 LZK..72357 OUN.. 74646 LMN.. THE REASON FOR THE REQUEST FOLLOWS... IT WOULD BE BENEFICIAL TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IF ALL UPPER AIR SITES IN OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, TEXAS, AND LOUISIANA WERE ABLE TO LAUNCH AN 18Z SET OF BALLOONS/RADIOSONDES TODAY 1/16 TO HELP BETTER INITIALIZE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EMERGING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS SPREAD IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COUPLED WITH THE SCHEDULED WINTER WEATHER RECON. A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. $$ SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Not to troll your regional thread, but there are some Special Launches scheduled shortly to your W...along with Winter RECON missions… NOUS42 KWNO 161339 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1337Z SUN JAN 16 2011..CORRECTION...RELEASE SONDES TODAY NOT TOMORROW... THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION STARTED ON TIME.. 12Z RAOB RECAP... KPP/78970 - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS... NCEP HPC IS REQUESTING 18Z SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY 1/16 FROM THE FOLLOWING STATES TX..LA..OK..AR..THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING UPPER AIR SITES..72249 FWD..72250 BRO..72251 CRP..72261 DRT..72265 Thanks. Wonder if this will be in time to get ingested by 0z runs tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 According to European, precip is minimal. for who? RDU gets 0.61 for round 1 and 0.4 for round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I agree with Hickory about how this may play out, just reading between the lines approach. The next s/w digs pretty strongly then rounds the bend. Overrunning very extensive ahead of it, the only question right now is how far south the main axis is, and how far south the cold air is. With a 1032 high, thats moderately strong, certainly not weak at all, and the cold should easily get down to 40 corridor, which is common in this setup, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it come in colder later runs. That may be a long duration event, and a good one at that, with some areas getting maybe .75" to 1.00" from that event, which would be a major winter storm if the surface temps support it. Right now that would favor the Apps and west, since it would be a while to push it down the east side of the Apps toward ne GA and Upstate, but its a ways off. Maybe more importantly, I think the next s/w will come into view better on the next runs and already it looks very strong on some models, so depending on where that goes, there may be only a short break before the next event, whatever that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 for who? RDU gets 0.61 for round 1 and 0.4 for round 2 I've learned that when folks say "precip is minimal" or "this storm is a nonevent" or "I'm not impressed with this storm", they're talking about for their own backyard. Human nature I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z ukmet seems to be in line with Euro. Has Low leaving Texas Day 4 and crossing Florida panahandle day 5 Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Trust me, and I expect the SE folks would agree, post as often as you like. Thanks for bringing this to our attention!! Not to troll your regional thread, but there are some Special Launches scheduled shortly to your W...along with Winter RECON missions… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Middle of Jan. with the patterns we've seen I'll take my chances with the Euro saying marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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