iceman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This winter the Euro has been King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Maybe not no chance, but a very slim chance IMO based on what I see in the model tremds/ensembles, perhaps far north GA well north of ATL could get into the action but the metro will most likely see just cold rain. If there is snow here from this system it wll be because the system is weaker than the 12Z GFS- the stronger the short wave the farther north the low goes. But if the short is weaker and more suppressed like last nights GGEM, then maybe the surface low goes far enough south for snow in ATL. but then it would not be a "major" storm for us. Therefore I will go out on a limb and say there is only maybe a 5% chance of say a snow event of over 1" here in ATL. Would love to be wrong of course, and Foothills has been very good this year, but I am not feeling this one right now, Just IMO, but I'd have to say based on the overall pattern, IF this is going to end up being a major winter storm for some folks, it's going to be an ice storm, not a snow event. Not saying there couldn't be some snow, but it would seem like the way you'll get a big event is more like what the ECMWF is showing with a shallow overrunning pattern, not the more well developed sfc low of the GFS which would limit the significant winter weather to a fairly narrow corridor on the NW side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like the new Canadian is even more progressive than the GFS, but also has a slightly stronger initial high and surge of colder air than the GFS. As HPC said, low confidence setup with not much model consistency. Can't wait to see if the ECMWF has any consistsency with its last couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like the new Canadian is even more progressive than the GFS, but also has a slightly stronger initial high and surge of colder air than the GFS. As HPC said, low confidence setup with not much model consistency. Can't wait to see if the ECMWF has any consistsency with its last couple of runs. I've looked on the Canadian Weather Office site, but it's difficult to see the temp profile for the SE. Best I can tell, it looks like snow/freezing rain/rain through the TN Valley and northern North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 After this event, like the Euro has been showing, if we do get enough cold air into part of the Southeast, I think we're going to have a wicked spell of winter storms. There's no shortage of shortwaves coming across the western PNA ridge and taking the low road to us. Its just a question of how much cold air we have to work with when they get here and what the exact track is going to be. This is the thing that has always bothered me about Ga. weather..you can get amazing blocking, a split stream, plenty of sw's moving in both streams, cold high pressure in great positions being reinforced, and yet it seems near impossible to get more than one good storm. We were talking about 73 before and the Feb snow storm. Well, in Atl. I had the crushing ice storm in early Jan. that was horrible, then here comes the most amazing snow storm in Feb. yet it is only for middle Ga., lol. Orchard Hill, just below Griffin, got around an inch. The heavy stuff was on south even more. So...Atl. gets hammered by the worst ice storm anyone can remember, and when the next system comes, over a month later, it is heavy snow..for Macon..not the poor Atlantans who had just suffered so badly Just once, before I'm too old to care, I'd love to see a pattern actually hammer me over and over and over, lol. Instead, it is usually get a good storm, then wait, and wait, and then...someone else gets the next. I hope this year is different finally. Amazing blocking is a terrible thing to waste. I want to get repeatedly slammed by snow/sleet like ya'lls parents did in the 60's. But I'm beginning to believe that is only a Joe kind of thing Or a 60's thing. I've only seen it once down here and that was in the 80's or 90's...and it was only a sn/ip of a few inches, then a zrain within a week, then a bigger sn/ip/zr within a week after that. It seems with the patterns we get it should be much more common. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 canadian looks close to bigtime ice to snow solution. this pattern, like i said last week, is similar to late january/early february 1996. There is likely to be a major overrunning event sometime from Friday-Monday. The only factor as far whether this will be rain/ice/snow, will be the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 canadian looks close to bigtime ice to snow solution. this pattern, like i said last week, is similar to late january/early february 1996. There is likely to be a major overrunning event sometime from Friday-Monday. The only factor as far whether this will be rain/ice/snow, will be the timing. Hickory, could you more specific where you're speakking of? North Ga?, Upstate SC?, Central NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Hickory, could you more specific where you're speakking of? North Ga?, Upstate SC?, Central NC? Probably NE GA/NW SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I've looked on the Canadian Weather Office site, but it's difficult to see the temp profile for the SE. Best I can tell, it looks like snow/freezing rain/rain through the TN Valley and northern North Carolina. Hickory, could you more specific where you're speakking of? North Ga?, Upstate SC?, Central NC? 12z GGEM p-type http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 theres strong digging toward the 4 corners at 84 hours with a 1032 high in the central plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 theres strong digging toward the 4 corners at 84 hours with a 1032 high in the central plains. yep. even more so than 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 at 96 hours there is overrunning from Tn/Ky to points west. If anything, it may be holding the SW system back too long and sheared,supressed, which the Euro does sometimes. But the setup is def. overrunning, quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 at 96 hours there is overrunning from Tn/Ky to points west. If anything, it may be holding the SW system back too long and sheared,supressed, which the Euro does sometimes. But the setup is def. overrunning, quickly. ya, but it's less so than the 0z, but it's moving in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the 850 0 line runs along I- 40 through 108. Theres no big high damming in the Northeast, thanks to the new nrn. stream wave, but low level cold in nrn. Ms, Al, GA and western Carolinas I think would allow this to be a Winter storm. Theres time to change the flow a little. For more snow we'd want the sw system to drop a little more south and east maybe, but either way this is looking like a decent Winter storm. Its been a long time since we've seen true overrunning stretch west to east like this with a strong Arctic high in the central plains. They can be good precip producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 its a good little precip event, maybe .50" around LIT MEM BNA AVL HKY. Make that .75" in some areas. It scoots off the Southeast coast without going up the coast it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks to be something brewing in the gulf at 120 on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lays down at least 0.5" of precip over NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ha, its a one two punch. Theres the other s/w coming into the longwave trough in the western Plains, and teh center of the High moves into damming position, and moisture is quickly returning to the Southeast. I don't know if thats right, but the model is showing that. With so much coming from the Gulf of Alaska, this could be a doozy of a Winter period in part of the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 With that track across the gulf coast and most likely OTS, seems to me we'd want the low to strengthen and draw more colder air down, but I'll take the overruning. I'm liking the consistency of the Euro as it heads inside of the 5 day mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Its all rain on the Euro-except TN and western/northern NC- 850 temps in ATL plus 4 to plus 6 during the precip. Still not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like from AVL to RDU is a period of snow on thursday night and then a mix over the weekend. Definitely has the look of a long duration overrunning winter storm. It's gonna be tricky on the precip type though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Dy6 & Day 7 it has a GOM to east coast runner with very cold 850's to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 YEAH!! a low far enough south for me and Tony! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like from AVL to RDU is a period of snow on thursday night and then a mix over the weekend. Definitely has the look of a long duration overrunning winter storm. It's gonna be tricky on the precip type though. At the very least, it gives us something to watch and it seems like someone will get something frozen, even if it's just the NW sections os GA/SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 if the temps press down a little more south, then many in the Southeast would get some wintry precip. Its by no means settled. A 1030+ high in the central Plains and strong overrunning is a good recipe for Ark Tenn NC and upper Southeast usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 At the very least, it gives us something to watch and it seems like someone will get something frozen, even if it's just the NW sections os GA/SC/NC. Just from the raw data, rdu looks like a few inches thursday night and friday morning w/ sfc temps around 33 or 34 and 850's around -1. Then saturday night, surface temps drop below freezing to 30/31 but 850's rise to + 4. If the euro was right, verbatim, looks like west of gso is probably mostly snow/sleet, form GSO to RDU is snow to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Just from the raw data, rdu looks like a few inches thursday night and friday morning w/ sfc temps around 33 or 34 and 850's around -1. Then saturday night, surface temps drop below freezing to 30/31 but 850's rise to + 4. If the euro was right, verbatim, looks like west of gso is probably mostly snow/sleet, form GSO to RDU is snow to freezing rain. Rough estimates of total qpf? First system and second system? Thanks TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I can't see the low level temps on the ECMWF, but given the shallow nature of the cold air and its 850 mb temps, it's hard to imagine that there wouldn't be a zone of ice across southern Arkansas, northern MS, into southern Tn and far northern AL/GA. The pattern on the ECMWF would seem to imply that the low level cold air would funnel more easily down into AR/LA and the MS Valley more than into the areas farther E. All of this is assuming the ECMWF is correct, of course, which is by no means certain. The EC does seem to be settling into a more consistent pattern that the GFS is gradually moving toward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like the Euro pops an east-based negative NAO at the end of it's run the Penn State e-wall. The pattern looks incredible from 168-240 - at least for cold that is. Edit: If I was a betting man(which I'm not), I'd put my money on ice for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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