CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 My memory gets worse as the years go by, so I can't remember the year, but somewhere late 70's, early 80's, there was a snowstorm in AVL where I remember the thermometer stayed in the low teens for the majority of the event. Do you remember such an event or has my dementia kicked in? March 2,1980 snowstorm..........We had temps in the high single digits to low teens for the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I don't recall. Thats certainly cold for a storm though! Yeah, maybe one those age related fabrications. With regard to the early week storm, we still have a solid snowpack.. As far that goes, we still have snow on the road. so, if that has the ability to help with lowering of the temps, it is still there to do the job. (depending on what melting we get today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 March 2,1980 snowstorm..........We had temps in the high single digits to low teens for the entire event. That was a GREAT storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 March 2,1980 snowstorm..........We had temps in the high single digits to low teens for the entire event. Okay, so maybe I'm not losing my mind.(yet) Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Kinda surprised there aren't more people talking about the 00z euro (although its late and I'm sure everyones sleeping) I think a map like this would certainly indicate a prolonged threat for wintry precipitation for NC and parts of SC (Ice likely). The Euro has been trying to to pull that solution at one point or another for the past couple of days. But yes, for people living in the upper South they probably should keep an eye on this one. I am tempering my excitement until I see a few more consistent runs and some other model support. That said, the pattern is ripe for that kind of business in my opinion. Like many have said, the cold in central Canada is brutal. On another note, the NAO appears to be heading slightly negative w/ the AO looking to do something similar. PNA is positive throughout today's CPC ensemble means. Looking like this will turn out to be a pretty cold January for many in the southeast. If we were to hold this pattern in February, lookout... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Hard to believe that precip doesn't reach Ga. till tomorrow afternoon as shown even on todays 12z NAM. Hell of a lot of rain across N. La moving quickly east on radar. I know this system is progged to dampen out before re energizing as the next sw partially phases. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I always look at Saranac Lake when we have an upcoming CAD. It seems to me when they are below zero leading up to a cad then GA will get hit. I dont think thats failed yet. Also if NC is expecting snow with cad then GA gets the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the new nam isn't as cold or wet for NC. Just a minor event, so it will be interesting to see how cold the low levels are when the precip comes, but so far not much moisture progged for western NC, which is a good thing I think, who wants an ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I just looked at the 00z CMC, looks like nothing, at all. Maybe it was just a burp, i don't know. The JMA also showing this system, not that it's that credible of a model, but in some cases it has been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I just looked at the 00z CMC, looks like nothing, at all. Maybe it was just a burp, i don't know. The JMA also showing this system, not that it's that credible of a model, but in some cases it has been right. Look at the CMC ensembles, while none show anything of consequence between 120-186 hrs, most have a favorable setup, especially at 132hrs... http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 At a second look I see the very favorable setup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the NAM has the Rockies s/w at 84 hours, just further north than Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the NAM and GFS still have a really close call on this next event for western NC and southern VA. It has always been tight, and looks like we're going to come down to the wire, like usual. The difference this time is snow cover and how it will probably help keep the low levels colder than forecast. So if youre in the mountains and just east and the northern foothills and nw Piedmont, depending on how much precip arrives, it could get icy later Monday and overnight into early Tuesday with residual low level cold and light moisture being brought in over top. The NAM is colder at the surface, we'll see how its new run trends. NWS-- Still giving me a mix ? .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SLEET AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NWS-- Still giving me a mix ? .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SLEET AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE EVENING. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. It's like they want it to snow/sleet/ice. I think expect for the higher elevations of >4000' are going to see mostly, if not all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 New GFS through 60 hours is definitely digging that wave in the west way more than the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12Z GFS at 84 hours looks very similar to the 96 hour 00Z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 12Z GFS at 84 hours looks very similar to the 96 hour 00Z ECMWF. Thanks for the updates and welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12Z GFS at 84 hours looks very similar to the 96 hour 00Z ECMWF. Haven't seen you around, nice disco and great starting posts! We'd love another met to be around for the play by play when models come out. Welcome to the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12Z GFS at 84 hours looks very similar to the 96 hour 00Z ECMWF. Indeed it is. The Euro may have been right a couple days ago with its very strong cut off in the Southwest. The GFS has an additional strong northern stream which boots out the Northeast confluence, and allows warm advection ahead of our southwest system, so its showing rain ahead of a cold front in the southern Plains/Southeast. It looks like its not allowing enough cold air to come in behind the East coast Storm on Wednesday. I'd bet the Euro run has a big Tenn Valley/upper Southeast Winter storm again, instead of the GFS snow/ice for nw Tenn/Ky/Ark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 After this event, like the Euro has been showing, if we do get enough cold air into part of the Southeast, I think we're going to have a wicked spell of winter storms. There's no shortage of shortwaves coming across the western PNA ridge and taking the low road to us. Its just a question of how much cold air we have to work with when they get here and what the exact track is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Indeed it is. The Euro may have been right a couple days ago with its very strong cut off in the Southwest. The GFS has an additional strong northern stream which boots out the Northeast confluence, and allows warm advection ahead of our southwest system, so its showing rain ahead of a cold front in the southern Plains/Southeast. It looks like its not allowing enough cold air to come in behind the East coast Storm on Wednesday. I'd bet the Euro run has a big Tenn Valley/upper Southeast Winter storm again, instead of the GFS snow/ice for nw Tenn/Ky/Ark. Even if just rain you gotta love how wet it looks...but I think you're right, the Euro is sniffing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Haven't seen you around, nice disco and great starting posts! We'd love another met to be around for the play by play when models come out. Welcome to the forum! Thanks! I posted a lot in the tropical section of the old easternuswx, but have not been around much since the change. Anyway, not surprisingly substantial differences arise between the new GFS and old ECMWF beyond 84 hours. While the EC kept the split flow and enabled the low level cold air to build into the region, the GFS keeps the SW system more progressive and moving along with the rest of the flow. This results in a decent low pressure system developing inland over LA/MS that moves E. By 126 it has a 1005 mb low over GA, which enables warmer air to overspread most of the SE, and taken verbatim it would show most of the significant winter wx threat confined to AR/TN/KY. A big difference between the models - but obviously the GFS has made a huge change from its earlier runs and has trended more toward the general ideas of the ECMWF. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF holds serve today with more of a suppressed, overrunning type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Indeed it is. The Euro may have been right a couple days ago with its very strong cut off in the Southwest. The GFS has an additional strong northern stream which boots out the Northeast confluence, and allows warm advection ahead of our southwest system, so its showing rain ahead of a cold front in the southern Plains/Southeast. It looks like its not allowing enough cold air to come in behind the East coast Storm on Wednesday. I'd bet the Euro run has a big Tenn Valley/upper Southeast Winter storm again, instead of the GFS snow/ice for nw Tenn/Ky/Ark. This winter has been so bizarre in this respect. Normally its the Euro that starts trending too warm and the gfs follows suit. That was even the case last year, except most of our systems were so far south to start, the trend northward benefited us. This year however, we saw it with the Christmas storm... a steady southward trend, first led by the euro (almost too much actually before the last minute major changes). The southward trend was also in full force with the past major snowstorm across the southeast... once again almost too far south, and some folks in Raleigh didn't really benefit too much from it. I have a hunch we are in for another southward adjustment from the gfs and perhaps the euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thanks! I posted a lot in the tropical section of the old easternuswx, but have not been around much since the change. Anyway, not surprisingly substantial differences arise between the new GFS and old ECMWF beyond 84 hours. While the EC kept the split flow and enabled the low level cold air to build into the region, the GFS keeps the SW system more progressive and moving along with the rest of the flow. This results in a decent low pressure system developing inland over LA/MS that moves E. By 126 it has a 1005 mb low over GA, which enables warmer air to overspread most of the SE, and taken verbatim it would show most of the significant winter wx threat confined to AR/TN/KY. A big difference between the models - but obviously the GFS has made a huge change from its earlier runs and has trended more toward the general ideas of the ECMWF. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF holds serve today with more of a suppressed, overrunning type setup. Gotta think with how the Euro has done and with the cold being as entrenched as it has you almost have to lean to the Euro. Like Robert said this 12z run will be interesting to see if it holds serve. Could be looking at yet again the Euro really getting in it's range and really sniffing out how the storm is going to play out. It's been good to us this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 With a lack of cold air preceding the late week storm there is no chance of much wintry precip IMO except perhaps in far northern TN into NW and far north NC behind/north of the surface low track. I am stil far more interested in the threat in 10 days or so- the Euro ensembles have been pretty consistent in showing stronger CAD with that than we will have with the Friday system. Probably not snow, but maybe some ice., We need to get the proper blocking setup back for any sort of snow chances, especially this far south-, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This winter has been so bizarre in this respect. Normally its the Euro that starts trending too warm and the gfs follows suit. That was even the case last year, except most of our systems were so far south to start, the trend northward benefited us. This year however, we saw it with the Christmas storm... a steady southward trend, first led by the euro (almost too much actually before the last minute major changes). The southward trend was also in full force with the past major snowstorm across the southeast... once again almost too far south, and some folks in Raleigh didn't really benefit too much from it. I have a hunch we are in for another southward adjustment from the gfs and perhaps the euro as well. Gotta think with how the Euro has done and with the cold being as entrenched as it has you almost have to lean to the Euro. Like Robert said this 12z run will be interesting to see if it holds serve. Could be looking at yet again the Euro really getting in it's range and really sniffing out how the storm is going to play out. It's been good to us this season With a lack of cold air preceding the late week storm there is no chance of much wintry precip IMO except perhaps in far northern TN into NW and far north NC behind/north of the surface low track. I am stil far more interested in the threat in 10 days or so- the Euro ensembles have been pretty consistent in showing stronger CAD with that than we will have with the Friday system. Probably not snow, but maybe some ice., We need to get the proper blocking setup back for any sort of snow chances, especially this far south-, Its too early to say no chance even for ATL region. Definitely the northern part of Georgia has a shot with a major winter storm. Are you just looking at the op. GFS and coming to that conclusion? The big picture shows a good chance at yet another northern Miss/Al/Ga, Carolinas/Tenn storm starting late Thursday, in my opinion, and another right on its heels. Its an incredible pattern than has performed already, and it appears this is exactly the kind of pattern we need to produce Winter weather in part of the Southeast. It could still turn out to be a cold front with rain ahead of /snow behind and north side, but we just can't shake these southern lows and cold air this year, and the pattern is about as good as it gets to keep on delievering that. I'm hoping the Euro was too extreme in its damming situation on a couple runs as that would be really bad news for ice in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Thanks! I posted a lot in the tropical section of the old easternuswx, but have not been around much since the change. Anyway, not surprisingly substantial differences arise between the new GFS and old ECMWF beyond 84 hours. While the EC kept the split flow and enabled the low level cold air to build into the region, the GFS keeps the SW system more progressive and moving along with the rest of the flow. This results in a decent low pressure system developing inland over LA/MS that moves E. By 126 it has a 1005 mb low over GA, which enables warmer air to overspread most of the SE, and taken verbatim it would show most of the significant winter wx threat confined to AR/TN/KY. A big difference between the models - but obviously the GFS has made a huge change from its earlier runs and has trended more toward the general ideas of the ECMWF. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF holds serve today with more of a suppressed, overrunning type setup. I can certainly vouch for your excellent tropical season posts While normally I'd expect to see the more progressive solution in a La Nina win out, this is pretty much the third run in the row that the GFS has slowed down the shortwave that swings in out west. Plus, this has by no means been a normal La Nina. I agree with you that it will be very enlightening to see what the Euro does now that the GFS seems to be sniffing out the shortwave as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS really backed away from any Arctic outbreak this run. Trying to keep that Greenland block from reforming as well; keeps a trough between the HP's there much of the run. May happen., but, we've seen this before and the block just "does in" those Lp's that try to sit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Its too early to say no chance even for ATL region. Definitely the northern part of Georgia has a shot with a major winter storm. Are you just looking at the op. GFS and coming to that conclusion? The big picture shows a good chance at yet another northern Miss/Al/Ga, Carolinas/Tenn storm starting late Thursday, in my opinion, and another right on its heels. Its an incredible pattern than has performed already, and it appears this is exactly the kind of pattern we need to produce Winter weather in part of the Southeast. It could still turn out to be a cold front with rain ahead of /snow behind and north side, but we just can't shake these southern lows and cold air this year, and the pattern is about as good as it gets to keep on delievering that. I'm hoping the Euro was too extreme in its damming situation on a couple runs as that would be really bad news for ice in some areas. Maybe not no chance, but a very slim chance IMO based on what I see in the model tremds/ensembles, perhaps far north GA well north of ATL could get into the action but the metro will most likely see just cold rain. If there is snow here from this system it wll be because the system is weaker than the 12Z GFS- the stronger the short wave the farther north the low goes. But if the short is weaker and more suppressed like last nights GGEM, then maybe the surface low goes far enough south for snow in ATL. but then it would not be a "major" storm for us. Therefore I will go out on a limb and say there is only maybe a 5% chance of say a snow event of over 1" here in ATL. Would love to be wrong of course, and Foothills has been very good this year, but I am not feeling this one right now, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS really backed away from any Arctic outbreak this run. Trying to keep that Greenland block from reforming as well; keeps a trough between the HP's there much of the run. May happen., but, we've seen this before and the block just "does in" those Lp's that try to sit there. Lee. I was so excited to see that pattern on the 12z GFS, I didn't notice the temps until you mentioned them. That said, w/ the NAO on the CPC ensemble means starting to trend negative towards the end of the month...I bet that block reloads. Looks like a PNA ridge dominating the pattern basically. It almost looks like a pattern that is "just cold enough" for winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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