Upcoming Storm Threats

[Tullioz]

The 18z GFS keeps temperatures between 29.7 and 31.5 between 7pm Monday and 7am Tuesday with around .4" of precipitation here along the NC/VA border. I would expect most of the freezing rain not to accumulate with marginal temperatures and falling at a moderate rate, but there could be somewhat of a glaze here overnight Monday

[tarheelwx]

The 18z GFS keeps temperatures between 29.7 and 31.5 between 7pm Monday and 7am Tuesday with around .4" of precipitation here along the NC/VA border. I would expect most of the freezing rain not to accumulate with marginal temperatures and falling at a moderate rate, but there could be somewhat of a glaze here overnight Monday

There is a huge difference in accrual @ 29-30 vs. 31-32. If you're at 29-30, I don't think the precip rates the models are putting out right now would be enough to outweigh the temps - resulting in quite a bit of ice. Bottom line is it is close and those in key areas should keep an eye on the situation.

TW

[Tullioz]

There is a huge difference in accrual @ 29-30 vs. 31-32. If you're at 29-30, I don't think the precip rates the models are putting out right now would be enough to outweigh the temps - resulting in quite a bit of ice. Bottom line is it is close and those in key areas should keep an eye on the situation.

TW

Yeah, I'm not too concerned at the moment, Looks like the infamous 33 and rain would be the most likely outcome with this set up.

[DopplerWx]

Enough with this cold, I'm ready for some 70 degree weather!

[Gastonwxman]

I was hardly stirred up with early next week's event. Seems as though the trend for areas east of the Appalachians is to be in all rain and areas in the high elevations getting into some wintry precipitation. That is fine with me though since rain would help clear off the remaining ice and snow that is still sitting on some of the secondary roadways that have escaped the sunshine and whatnot, let alone what is still accumulated on top of a few vehicles, especially when combined with those warmer temperatures.

[tarheelwx]

I was hardly stirred up with early next week's event. Seems as though the trend for areas east of the Appalachians is to be in all rain and areas in the high elevations getting into some wintry precipitation. That is fine with me though since rain would help clear off the remaining ice and snow that is still sitting on some of the secondary roadways that have escaped the sunshine and whatnot, let alone what is still accumulated on top of a few vehicles, especially when combined with those warmer temperatures.

i'd have to say that the trend east of the mountains is not towards all rain. It has been all rain from the start and a somewhat warm one at that (going back about a week). The trend has been colder due to the stronger hp staying in the northeast longer. We now have the ideal CAD areas getting very close to some freezing rain.

TW

[SnowNiner]

Let's face it, next week is not happening. What we need to see is the blocking to re-establish and the pattern to get our potential back. I think we won't be seeing anything storm wise until the week of Jan 24th, IMO.

[SN_Lover]

"AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE- NORTHERN JACKSON-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-.................416 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011........THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.........DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT....................HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.............DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.........A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FROM MIDDAY MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING."

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED.....NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC......416 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Looks like the latest NAM wants to continue the trend of holding the CAD in longer........... This could be interesting if we had some QPF to go along with it.

[Gastonwxman]

Euro on Day 7:

[phil882]

Kinda surprised there aren't more people talking about the 00z euro (although its late and I'm sure everyones sleeping)

I think a map like this would certainly indicate a prolonged threat for wintry precipitation for NC and parts of SC (Ice likely).

[DaculaWeather]

FFC is talking more and more about the cold air and precip on the horizon.

http://www.daculaweather.com/afd_new.php

[DaculaWeather]

Hunstville climo

CLIMATE...THE FIRST HALF OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER HAS BEEN QUITE COLD THIS

YEAR. BELOW ARE CURRENT RANKINGS FOR THE TOP FIVE COLDEST SUCH

PERIODS (DECEMBER 1ST THROUGH JANUARY 15TH) FOR HUNTSVILLE AND

MUSCLE SHOALS.

HUNTSVILLE

RANK.....YEAR.....AVG TEMP

1........1917.......34.0

2........1963.......34.7

2(TIE)...2000.......34.7

4........1985.......36.4

5........2010.......36.6

MUSCLE SHOALS

RANK.....YEAR.....AVG TEMP

1........1963.......34.3

2........2000.......34.5

3........1976.......35.4

4........1985.......36.9

5........2010.......37.0

ALSO...MEASURABLE SNOW DEPTH HAS BEEN RECORDED AT HUNTSVILLE

INTERNATIONAL FOR SIX CONSECUTIVE DAYS NOW. THIS TIES JANUARY 7TH

THROUGH 12TH 1988 AS THE LONGEST CONSECUTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS WITH

SNOW DEPTH AT ONE INCH OR ABOVE AT HUNTSVILLE. IF SNOW DEPTH IS

RECORDED AT HUNTSVILLE THIS MORNING AT 12Z...THEN THIS WILL BE THE

LONGEST PERIOD WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON RECORD AT HUNTSVILLE. OF

INTEREST...WHILE THE VERY INTENSE SNOWSTORM OF NEW YEARS 1963/1964

PRODUCED MUCH MORE SNOWFALL (17.1 INCHES)...THE SNOW ONLY LINGERED ON

THE GROUND FOR FIVE DAYS BEFORE MELTING AS TEMPERATURES WARMED

QUICKLY.

FOR THE SHOALS...THE RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH SNOW DEPTH OF

ONE INCH OR GREATER IS TEN DAYS...WHICH OCCURRED IN FEBRUARY 1985 AND

JAN/FEB 1940. THUS...THE RECORD THERE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE BROKEN.

&&

[FoothillsNC]

Kinda surprised there aren't more people talking about the 00z euro (although its late and I'm sure everyones sleeping)

I think a map like this would certainly indicate a prolonged threat for wintry precipitation for NC and parts of SC (Ice likely).

The 00z was a big winter storm. Its flow on day 5 and 6 is a big Tenn. Valley and upper Southeast Winter storm. Its back to its southwest system coming east , beginning Thursday afternoon, with cold enough for overunning snow in Tenn to NC, with a strong Arctic high in the Plains pressing down ferociously, that grows stronger as it reaches very strong confluence in the Northeast. The 0 degree isotherm stretches from RDU to OKC by hour 126 and stays there for most of the storm, The big deal may be the ice potential. Already its 2M temps are in the mid to upper 30's for most of 3 days period in northern GA to points north, and its not good with low level temps, esp. in a CAD, and this is a stong CAD system, so with it having temps upper 30s in ATL during the middle of the day Saturday that tells me its recognizing the CAD and it would be so much colder than that most likely, with strong confluence and an Arctic high in New England.

The potential is there for a severe Winter storm across part of the South. Beginning in less than 120 hours, with devastating ice for some areas probably GA or SC with snow on the front end as well in part of Tn to NC, then ice, and back to snow. I haven't checked the 00z other runs though.

[NCSNOW]

The 00z was a big winter storm. Its flow on day 5 and 6 is a big Tenn. Valley and upper Southeast Winter storm. Its back to its southwest system coming east , beginning Thursday afternoon, with cold enough for overunning snow in Tenn to NC, with a strong Arctic high in the Plains pressing down ferociously, that grows stronger as it reaches very strong confluence in the Northeast. The 0 degree isotherm stretches from RDU to OKC by hour 126 and stays there for most of the storm, The big deal may be the ice potential. Already its 2M temps are in the mid to upper 30's for most of 3 days period in northern GA to points north, and its not good with low level temps, esp. in a CAD, and this is a stong CAD system, so with it having temps upper 30s in ATL during the middle of the day Saturday that tells me its recognizing the CAD and it would be so much colder than that most likely, with strong confluence and an Arctic high in New England.

The potential is there for a severe Winter storm across part of the South. Beginning in less than 120 hours, with devastating ice for some areas probably GA or SC with snow on the front end as well in part of Tn to NC, then ice, and back to snow. I haven't checked the 00z other runs though.

Thanks Robert. Gonna be hard to ignore now. You even have the 6z GFS pretty much laying out the same scenerio. Hopefully we can get those temps a notch colder for everyone. Gonna be a fun week.

[POWERSTROKE]

I can't wait to see the up and down moods as the models change throughout the week. I was just telling Robert how most want to jump off cliff until final 24hours as models have been so inaccurate up until storm is 24hrs out. Looks good to me but will wait until wednesday to get excited

[tarheelwx]

Does the euro have ensemble support?

TW

[POWERSTROKE]

Does the euro have ensemble support?

TW

it has mine many forecasters are taking about it even locals

[ncjoaquin]

Does the euro have ensemble support?

TW

There is apparently an array of model confusion, but HPC a slight Euro lean.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

400 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011

VALID 12Z THU JAN 20 2011 - 12Z SUN JAN 23 2011

USED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR

DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC

ECMWF AND 12Z/15 ECENS MEANS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. CONFIDENCE IS

ABYSMALLY LOW FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH LITTLE IF ANY DETERMINISTIC

RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS...AND CONFLICTING ENSEMBLE

MEANS FROM THE GEFS...ECENS...AND CMCE. FELT THE BEST COURSE OF

ACTION TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME CONTINUITY WAS TO BLEND THE A

SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF ONE OF THE MEANS...WITH THE ECENS MEAN MOST

CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5. WITH ALMOST NOTHING

UPON WHICH TO HANG A HAT...PLAYED THE ODDS OF IN-HOUSE SURFACE

PRESSURE VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST FOUR MONTHS...WHICH GAVE THE

DETERMINISTIC ECMWF A CONSIDERABLE EDGE.

[GaffneyPeach]

it has mine many forecasters are taking about it even locals

GSP is making faces .

[WeatherNC]

The 00z was a big winter storm. Its flow on day 5 and 6 is a big Tenn. Valley and upper Southeast Winter storm. Its back to its southwest system coming east , beginning Thursday afternoon, with cold enough for overunning snow in Tenn to NC, with a strong Arctic high in the Plains pressing down ferociously, that grows stronger as it reaches very strong confluence in the Northeast. The 0 degree isotherm stretches from RDU to OKC by hour 126 and stays there for most of the storm, The big deal may be the ice potential. Already its 2M temps are in the mid to upper 30's for most of 3 days period in northern GA to points north, and its not good with low level temps, esp. in a CAD, and this is a stong CAD system, so with it having temps upper 30s in ATL during the middle of the day Saturday that tells me its recognizing the CAD and it would be so much colder than that most likely, with strong confluence and an Arctic high in New England.

The potential is there for a severe Winter storm across part of the South. Beginning in less than 120 hours, with devastating ice for some areas probably GA or SC with snow on the front end as well in part of Tn to NC, then ice, and back to snow. I haven't checked the 00z other runs though.

Given the lack of run-to-run continuity the EC has demonstrated recently in the 7 day range, I am looking for support elsewhere and this is what I found... Just under half the 0z GFS ens members have a storm, as early as 114 hrs, and as late as 180 hrs. Most, in fact all the members who have a storm are OTS solutions, not a NE impact like the operation EC. Southern slider for lack of a better term, and based on the individual member thickness panels from Allan's site, they are more of a SN than ice threat, given the absence of a secondary working up the Apps, again like the EC showed. If anything, I would be more concerned about suppression at this stage, given the HP most of the GFS members have crashing down from the northern plains around day 5.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf132.html

0z GGEM ens members also indicate a suppressed scenario would be more likely, compared to one that rides the EC. They are not nearly as indicative of a storm in the 120-186 period as the GFS members, in fact only a few have a weak wave traversing the SE. However, the setup on most of the members looks phenomenal at around 132hrs with a strong 50-50 in position, and a Arctic HP moving east from the central plains.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=132&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm

The 12z JMA from yesterday was screaming upper SE sn-storm on the 144hr panel btw, yeah I know it is the Jap, but folks still give it a bad rap when verification stats are better than the Canadian and even the GFS.

Does the euro have ensemble support?

TW

I do not have access to the 50 individual members, however the 0z ens mean supports a system around 168hrs. Keep an eye on the area of LP around the GL also, as that could mess our flow up if it is too strong. We want that feature to be as weak as possible, and preferably non-existent.

[FoothillsNC]

There is apparently an array of model confusion, but HPC a slight Euro lean.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

400 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011

VALID 12Z THU JAN 20 2011 - 12Z SUN JAN 23 2011

USED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR

DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC

ECMWF AND 12Z/15 ECENS MEANS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. CONFIDENCE IS

ABYSMALLY LOW FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH LITTLE IF ANY DETERMINISTIC

RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS...AND CONFLICTING ENSEMBLE

MEANS FROM THE GEFS...ECENS...AND CMCE. FELT THE BEST COURSE OF

ACTION TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME CONTINUITY WAS TO BLEND THE A

SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF ONE OF THE MEANS...WITH THE ECENS MEAN MOST

CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5. WITH ALMOST NOTHING

UPON WHICH TO HANG A HAT...PLAYED THE ODDS OF IN-HOUSE SURFACE

PRESSURE VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST FOUR MONTHS...WHICH GAVE THE

DETERMINISTIC ECMWF A CONSIDERABLE EDGE.

Good to see them recognize that a lot of times this season, the Op. model won out against the ensembles and the ECMWF comes back to its original solution, or close to it from 6 or even 7 days out. Today's run will be telling. If it maintains a good separation of the Southwest sytem, and boots it east, without shearing, the storm would be on in a major way. Its 5h setup on days 5, 6, 7 are very conducive for a strong Winter storm, with everything depending on where you are. Extremely strong confluence in the Northeast with very cold low level and upper levels, and a damming contour. The other models GFS and GGEM are slowly coming around to looking like that as well, but the details of the southern stream mean the difference between losing power and just a moderate event. All this followed by extreme cold and another threat looming right aftewards with so many shortwaves coming through the Gulf of Alaska and dropping into the Southwest.

[POWERSTROKE]

GSP is making faces .

I guess so, the last storm shut down the city. I went down there and plowed all the Home Depot stores in Greenville, Spartanburg, Greer and Colubia. We couldn't hardly find a place to eat. So I guess they would make faces not wanting another one

[EmersonGA]

You can always count on waffle house to open powerstroke. That was about the only place open around here. Im well rested from the last storm and ready to chase another.my wife has been warned of possible late night model watching again.

[Wild Weather Monger]

Fwiw, the source region for our events beyond mid week is brutal. -Teens to -forties all across Western Canada.

Very likely, models will be playing catch up as the week presses on with such low level cold.

[FoothillsNC]

Fwiw, the source region for our events beyond mid week is brutal. -Teens to -forties all across Western Canada.

Very likely, models will be playing catch up as the week presses on with such low level cold.

agreed at the potential on this one. If the Euro is right on that extreme northeast Confluence, the low level temps would be severely busted and we haven't really had an excellent CAD setup yet, but used to get them a lot , a few years ago and in the 80's storms especially. And in this particular case, with the cold air being much, much lower, if the High pressure doing the damming were to get consolidated right under the best confluence, we'd see temps go into the low 20's and even the teens for this Cad event (in NC) , but thats just speculation on a perfect prog. There's plenty of time to see how it evolves, as its very hard to get the perfect CAD situation, even this year, although the overall cold has overperformed in general it seems like. The Euro had 2m temps subzero in NY on Days 5 and 6 if I recall, with good damming countours, and it honestly handles 2m temps terribly for us during winter events.

[ncjoaquin]

agreed at the potential on this one. If the Euro is right on that extreme northeast Confluence, the low level temps would be severely busted and we haven't really had an excellent CAD setup yet, but used to get them a lot , a few years ago and in the 80's storms especially. And in this particular case, with the cold air being much, much lower, if the High pressure doing the damming were to get consolidated right under the best confluence, we'd see temps go into the low 20's and even the teens for this Cad event (in NC) , but thats just speculation on a perfect prog. There's plenty of time to see how it evolves, as its very hard to get the perfect CAD situation, even this year, although the overall cold has overperformed in general it seems like. The Euro had 2m temps subzero in NY on Days 5 and 6 if I recall, with good damming countours, and it honestly handles 2m temps terribly for us during winter events.

My memory gets worse as the years go by, so I can't remember the year, but somewhere late 70's, early 80's, there was a snowstorm in AVL where I remember the thermometer stayed in the low teens for the majority of the event. Do you remember such an event or has my dementia kicked in?

[FoothillsNC]

the NAM and GFS still have a really close call on this next event for western NC and southern VA. It has always been tight, and looks like we're going to come down to the wire, like usual. The difference this time is snow cover and how it will probably help keep the low levels colder than forecast. So if youre in the mountains and just east and the northern foothills and nw Piedmont, depending on how much precip arrives, it could get icy later Monday and overnight into early Tuesday with residual low level cold and light moisture being brought in over top. The NAM is colder at the surface, we'll see how its new run trends.

[FoothillsNC]

My memory gets worse as the years go by, so I can't remember the year, but somewhere late 70's, early 80's, there was a snowstorm in AVL where I remember the thermometer stayed in the low teens for the majority of the event. Do you remember such an event or has my dementia kicked in?

I don't recall. Thats certainly cold for a storm though!

[triadwx]

This is beginning to get interesting. Here's to another week of tracking a storm!