triadwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 6z GFS spat out some possibly wintry precipitation in the favorable CAD areas again, though it's only a 6z run. Still aiming at a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 And we are back! Was getting worried for a second that it was just my computer. me too - lol. had to double check my connection this morning until i started loading other pages. looks like the site was down for a while, glad it wasnt last weekend! 6z GFS spat out some possibly wintry precipitation in the favorable CAD areas again, though it's only a 6z run. Still aiming at a cold rain. the soundings when the precip arrives (at least n ga) are so close, but looks to be the 33 and rain it sounds like the euro blinked this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro didn't sound that great at 0z. Hopefully this latest run is just the blip not the previous run at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro didn't sound that great at 0z. Hopefully this latest run is just the blip not the previous run at 12z. Well it wasn't a bad run either. Still going to be a chance there. Euro isn't the only model showing something next weekend-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The euro ensembles are hanging back the southern branch quite a bit more than the OP version. So i'm sure we'll continue to see swings in the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 23. FFC says cold, little precip per their discussion this am fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 HP seems really dug in @ 48 on the 12z GFS. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepSouthSC Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Jan 7th I believe. We got 6.4 inches of snow in RDU from that. Jan/Feb 1973 was quite the period in the south. Feb 9-11 1973 was the first Carolina Crusher http://raleighwx.ame...om/Feb1973.html Here is a good, thorough write up, for some of you mets and the other veteran folk, on the February 9th-11th, 1973 Southern Snowstorm. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/papers/NOAATECHEDSNCC2free.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS is still close, but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 RDU finally gets a perfect coastal track on Tuesday, 2" of QPF.......but it's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 RDU finally gets a perfect coastal track on Tuesday, 2" of QPF.......but it's rain. Per what? The 12z GFS I'm guessing? If so, yes it looks quite nice...wish it wasn't all rain...definitely won't see anything but that come Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Op Euro dull, rain late week followed by cold. Last night's ensemble teleconnections not great either, little sign of a significant -NAO or AO. I hope the 12Z ensembles are better but for now- meh. I would rather have a torch, frankly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Looks like some winter mischief on the 12z Euro for Extreme nrn sections of Miss,ALa..Ga and up into Tenn.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Hard to tell for NW NC. 12z euro has a screaming Noreaster riding the seaboard. 850's look cold after low goes up coast on backside , but hard to see what happens over 24 hour period from day 5-Day 6. Takes low from deep Texas coast to off NJ coast. not sure what surface temps are in damming region, definetly to warm for snow, but mountains may get good backlash. Day 7 has -12 to -14 850's. Mighty Cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yep this one has fail written all over it. You can't thank that damn low in the upper midwest in part. No influence of a parent high with that sitting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yep this one has fail written all over it. You can't thank that damn low in the upper midwest in part. No influence of a parent high with that sitting there. The system coming Monday? I know you can't be talking about the potential next weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The only silver lining I see in this pattern is that the EPAC ridge stays pretty far west, so there might be a short wave that digs farther west into the Rockies/Plains that the models do not show right now, and if cold air is in place from a previous system then maybe we can squeeze out a winter event in the 1-2 week time frame. Otherwise I will take any rain I can get, as long as it is not ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yep this one has fail written all over it. You can't thank that damn low in the upper midwest in part. No influence of a parent high with that sitting there. With that track, Im optimistic at this point. Seems to me that a deepening low coming out of the GOM across Florida pnanhandle/south GA up the coast would suck cold air down like a vacum cleaner. This looks like a big icy mess potential for western NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Ok so let me clarify what I mean. I was looking at the high over central Canada (If you want snow) and not the one up in Maine/Nova Scotia. Obviously there is a Hybrid signature there. From the looks of things verbatim this would primarily be a west of I-85 icing event with the CAD eventually turning in-situ as the high slides east. This means any freezing rain that did occur would turn self-limiting and go to just cold rain like everyone else farther east. Perhaps a few pockets would hold on to ice a bit longer but I can't get overly excited about this one. This is for the 18th/19th. I haven't considered anything after that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Ok so let me clarify what I mean. I was looking at the high over central Canada (If you want snow) and not the one up in Maine/Nova Scotia. Obviously there is a Hybrid signature there. From the looks of things verbatim this would primarily be a west of I-85 icing event with the CAD eventually turning in-situ as the high slides east. This means any freezing rain that did occur would turn self-limiting and go to just cold rain like everyone else farther east. Perhaps a few pockets would hold on to ice a bit longer but I can't get overly excited about this one. This is for the 18th/19th. I haven't considered anything after that yet. Yeah I totally agree. At first glance of the less specific post I thought for some reason that you were talking about next weekend. I never expected anything but a cold rain out of this one anyways. None of the models have really though of any wintry precipitation being in the mix. I have stopped really watching this system, and have turned my focus on the next potential next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Ok so let me clarify what I mean. I was looking at the high over central Canada (If you want snow) and not the one up in Maine/Nova Scotia. Obviously there is a Hybrid signature there. From the looks of things verbatim this would primarily be a west of I-85 icing event with the CAD eventually turning in-situ as the high slides east. This means any freezing rain that did occur would turn self-limiting and go to just cold rain like everyone else farther east. Perhaps a few pockets would hold on to ice a bit longer but I can't get overly excited about this one. This is for the 18th/19th. I haven't considered anything after that yet. Agree. I misunderstood and thought you where referncing late week threat. I hope that track pans out day 6, I'll take my chances from this far out with a miler A taking that path anyday of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Still a lot of potential day 6 and 7. We need that s/w to break off or "cut off" from the main flow and allow the HP to slide east like the euro was showing yesterday. It's really not far off that solution now, but it doesn't dig quite far enough south for that to happen.. Plenty of time to watch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Still a lot of potential day 6 and 7. We need that s/w to break off or "cut off" from the main flow and allow the HP to slide east like the euro was showing yesterday. It's really not far off that solution now, but it doesn't dig quite far enough south for that to happen.. Plenty of time to watch it. On the 12z GFS around 1/20, a low swings though the south and goes inland through the Piedmont. That is normally a pretty good sign for the TN Valley (mid and north) for a winter storm, but w/ the cold air absent...looks like rain for the moment. Still, lots of cold air in Canada. I still don't think the models have a very good handle on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 On the 12z GFS around 1/20, a low swings though the south and goes inland through the Piedmont. That is normally a pretty good sign for the TN Valley (mid and north) for a winter storm, but w/ the cold air absent...looks like rain for the moment. Still, lots of cold air in Canada. I still don't think the models have a very good handle on this. As true with any system! But I totally agree, there are a wide variety of solutions out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Still not impressed with the late next week threat- Euro ensembles only have weak CAD with retreating/weakening HP- looks like rain and maybe ice to start in NC at best. No chance of frozen farther south IMO. We just do not have the blocking needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GSP already talking about snow next Thursday, not sure what they are seeing that Im not. Looks like on the Euro, which was the model they were referencing that it's going to be too warm at the ground for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 FFC is too: ONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST AS NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BEGINS TO MAKE ITS PLUNGE SOUTHWARD. SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH TUE NIGHT WILL RESULT IN LIQUID PRECIP ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH COLD AIR FUNNELING IN ON THE BACK SIDE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNSH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER AND WILL LEAVE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED GRIDS AS IS. LATEST GFS IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH ARCTIC HIGH IN BRINGING IT DOWN MORE IN PHASES WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF THESE SETUPS. MOISTURE FIELD IS ALSO MORE SUBSTANTIAL WITH THIS RUN...BUT REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE IS...THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR ADVERTISED BY MODELS WILL RESULT IN SOME SNSH ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS has been trending strong and slower with the hp for early week. 18z now has GSO @ the freezing mark with roughly .50" qpf. Same for HKY getting around .25. What's the odds this falls as mostly zr? A few days back it didn't even seem possible. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I noticed this too, but I think this is not likely and that almost, if not all, of the precip is going to fall as just a plain rain. I would agree, but if the hp is just a tad stronger and holds just 6 hours longer, the end result would be much different. It is also hard to beleive that in January you have lp on the coast and nothing frozen to the west. That has happened in the past, but typically in very warm Januarys. This is not a very warm january. Also, it seems the mw low is getting weaker and weaker. If it washes out altogether, what impact would that have? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 As true with any system! But I totally agree, there are a wide variety of solutions out there right now. The last system was well handled by the models from four to five days out. Though, one model may have sent the low to Cuba. lol. I was about fifty miles north of the heavier precip band from four days out. I was about fifty miles north of the main precip band when the event happened. It's hard to get more consistency than that. So no, it's not true w/ every system. Next weekend's storm seems to have a different solution w/ every run for the upper South. The inconsistency does, though, have much to do w/ the models trying to recognize the pattern and where each feature is placed that will influence the system. The last storm was pretty cut and dry basically. On the other hand, the December system saw models wildly differ. At this point a cold rain seems to be in order...but the models have had difficulty this year recognizing low level cold air, how quickly it retreats, and how quickly it gets in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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