Upcoming Storm Threats

[NCSNOW]

This sound familar to how the euro was brokedown in its progression of next weekends event. Yikes!

Dec 2002 follow-up:

Summary of Storm Meteorology

• (Map 1) Cold, dry air enters the Southeast via a cold front associated with an arctic high pressure cell to the northwest. As the cold air approaches the Gulf coast, a baroclinic environment becomes established on the southwest side of the high pressure, increasing the likelihood for enhancement of cyclogenesis (note the weak area of low pressure developing over New Mexico).
• (Map 2) High pressure has now moved over New England and is feeding a dome of cold, dry air entrained against the east slopes of the Appalachian Mountains (i.e. cold air damming). An area of low pressure is now located over Louisiana with a warm front bringing moisture and above-freezing temperatures in the mid-levels of the troposphere over the dome of cold surface air.
• (Map 3) As the storm is reaching its peak across the Southeast, secondary cyclogenesis is occurring off the coast of North Carolina. This synoptic feature has been shown to produce specific regions of precipitation type dominance with a snow and sleet mix in the mountains and the northwest portion of the region, freezing rain extending in a broad band oriented parallel to the mountains in the Piedmont, and mainly rain mixed with small amounts of freezing rain along the coastal plain.

[SnowNiner]

Just to give perspective of what the euro is showing though. I was just looking at some zoomed in images of the sfc temps from hr 192 to 210. There is a bubble of -5C temps just north of the NC/VA border. So i think the euro would be spitting out NC sfc temps in the mid to upper 20's if it were to come close to verifying. To be honest, those sfc temps and the thicknesses might support sleet in that scenario. But still, many areas would be seeing the majority of whatever falls being frozen/freezing.

Ok, THAT temperature profile would be epic.

[Gastonwxman]

This sound familar to how the euro was brokedown in its progression of next weekends event. Yikes!

Dec 2002 follow-up:

Summary of Storm Meteorology

• (Map 1) Cold, dry air enters the Southeast via a cold front associated with an arctic high pressure cell to the northwest. As the cold air approaches the Gulf coast, a baroclinic environment becomes established on the southwest side of the high pressure, increasing the likelihood for enhancement of cyclogenesis (note the weak area of low pressure developing over New Mexico).
• (Map 2) High pressure has now moved over New England and is feeding a dome of cold, dry air entrained against the east slopes of the Appalachian Mountains (i.e. cold air damming). An area of low pressure is now located over Louisiana with a warm front bringing moisture and above-freezing temperatures in the mid-levels of the troposphere over the dome of cold surface air.
• (Map 3) As the storm is reaching its peak across the Southeast, secondary cyclogenesis is occurring off the coast of North Carolina. This synoptic feature has been shown to produce specific regions of precipitation type dominance with a snow and sleet mix in the mountains and the northwest portion of the region, freezing rain extending in a broad band oriented parallel to the mountains in the Piedmont, and mainly rain mixed with small amounts of freezing rain along the coastal plain.

Haha yep. That's why I posted the link to that earlier. It all sounded disturbingly similar. Hopefully what the SCO explained here doesn't come to fruition in the future. Otherwise....

[Bevo]

Historically, we have coined a term here in SC as the *Upstate Rule*, which has been violated severely as of late. I hope the trend continues, as the models are blatantly ignoring the rule...

I am curious as to what the Euro will show for the next few days.

[WeatherNC]

I posted this in the Jan disco thread, and am re-posting it here as the Jan 19th thread has become the Jan 22nd & 23rd ice storm thread this afternoon. 12z EC depicts a phase guys, enter with extreme caution...

Regarding the 12z EC and the storm it has around 200 hrs... This was a phasing solution, much harder to predict even in the short term as we saw with the Christmas storm, and nearly impossible at this range to be modeled correctly. At 204 hrs, there is a closed 544dm H5 low just east of Little Rock with a piece of northern stream energy coming down through the central plains. It looks like it happens a little too far north and late this run, resulting in ice, but phasing of the parcels is beginning over W GA up through W NC at 216 hrs. Slide this southern stream sw south 300-400 miles, and verbatim, this would be a SN storm, not ice with the phase happening in southern GA. Needless to say, expect greater than normal flip flopping as the setup in much more complicated than the last storm with just one stream involved. Phases are harder to predict, especially more than 4 days out as a 6 hour difference in timing, or 100 miles difference in placement, yields a significantly different result.

Just to give perspective of what the euro is showing though. I was just looking at some zoomed in images of the sfc temps from hr 192 to 210. There is a bubble of -5C temps just north of the NC/VA border. So i think the euro would be spitting out NC sfc temps in the mid to upper 20's if it were to come close to verifying. To be honest, those sfc temps and the thicknesses might support sleet in that scenario. But still, many areas would be seeing the majority of whatever falls being frozen/freezing.

** edit to say it also has 925mb temps of -6C all the way down to GSO.

2m temps were <0C west of a Raleigh to Asheboro to Charlotte line for the event, likely in the upper 20's the farther west you go toward 77 north of CLT. The 25F isotherm never makes it into NC this run, long ways out, this could just as easily become a RN storm, SN storm, or no storm.

[HKY_WX]

I posted this in the Jan disco thread, and am re-posting it here as the Jan 19th thread has become the Jan 22nd & 23rd ice storm thread this afternoon. 12z EC depicts a phase guys, enter with extreme caution...

Regarding the 12z EC and the storm it has around 200 hrs... This was a phasing solution, much harder to predict even in the short term as we saw with the Christmas storm, and nearly impossible at this range to be modeled correctly. At 204 hrs, there is a closed 544dm H5 low just east of Little Rock with a piece of northern stream energy coming down through the central plains. It looks like it happens a little too far north and late this run, resulting in ice, but phasing of the parcels is beginning over W GA up through W NC at 216 hrs. Slide this southern stream sw south 300-400 miles, and verbatim, this would be a SN storm, not ice with the phase happening in southern GA. Needless to say, expect greater than normal flip flopping as the setup in much more complicated than the last storm with just one stream involved. Phases are harder to predict, especially more than 4 days out as a 6 hour difference in timing, or 100 miles difference in placement, yields a significantly different result.

2m temps were <0C west of a Raleigh to Asheboro to Charlotte line for the event, likely in the upper 20's the farther west you go toward 77 north of CLT. The 25F isotherm never makes it into NC this run, long ways out, this could just as easily become a RN storm, SN storm, or no storm.

The setup would be a mixed bag if the euro is right verbatim. Any day 8 prog is obviously sketchy.

[IWC]

Ehh. Dont really want a Dec. 2002 all over again, or anything worse. I was only 7 or 8 that storm but I remember loosing power for 5 days, when I lived in Shelby then.

We just moved to Knightdale and it was a mess for 2 weeks no power for 11 days like to went broke buying gas for the generator... I love my wood boiler...

[packfan98]

If I remember correctly, as the 2002 storm turned to freezing rain the surface temperature continued to drop. I believe that it ended up in the teens and pouring rain! Please, someone verify my horrible recollection of this event. Any time I mention ICE she freaks because of the 2002 storm. I truly believe that it was a once in a lifetime event because of it's severity. At least I hope so!!

[dsaur]

Wow. I bet that was very difficult on you Mom, Tony. I hope to never experience anything like that!

Mother flew B17's with the Army Air Corps and I haven't seen much that can phase her...yeah, my mommy wore combat boots But that was a tough go. I couldn't get to her for a number of days. I was living next to Lenox, and P'tree St was littered with trees and poles and popping wires, so even it you could get out of your street you weren't going anywhere.

I can remember a few crazy icestorms, dec 02, feb 96 come to mind first. The one from the early 90's that paralyzed the southeast. I remember that one well but can't recall the date. I think it may have been 94. That one caused tremendous damage and most of the zr was with sfc temps in the lower 20's.

Everything in my experience pales to the 73 ice storm.

Ala.'s 30/40 blog says as much as 4 inches of ice formed in and around Atl. in 73, and I've seen that reported several times, but I can only recount what I saw and heard reported at the time. Larry said near 3 inches liquid fell at the airport, and I had as much as 2 1/2 ice buildup in Buckhead, where I was. Friends over near Morningside said they measured 2 3/4's. I read a report from Ga Tech reporting 3 inches of build up. It just poured all night and it all stuck. I've also seen reports of snow and sleet, but there was none of that. All zrain. I've heard it said you can't get heavy rain to stick, but I know it can. Over 300,000 without power for a week or more. Virtually the whole city. And it was below freezing for about 100 hours after. It scarred us all for life, lol.

I won't worry about a repeat until I see gulf lows start dropping 3 or more inches of rain again. Used to see that a lot in the 60's, 70's and 80's but not so much any more. Still, even an inch to 1 1/2 of ice is way, way more than I ever want to see again.

I hope it goes much colder through the column up there so you can just get snow and sleet Tony

[FoothillsNC]

o/t but has anyone heard of snow falling in NC in July, either the late 1800's or early 1900's.(Not Mt. Mitchell). I remember an older friend years ago told me, her grandmother told her (or even great grandmother) about accumulating snow in JULY in Shelby. I never believed it but was curious if maybe she had the dates mixed up, maybe May. I do know of May snow here in the 80's but not July.

[BraseltonGAWX]

Long time WSB TV anchor John Pruitt just wrote an article / blog on the famous 1973 Ice Storm in Atlanta. Good read. Here is the link:

http://www.wsbtv.com/weather/26482222/detail.html

I agree with Tony. All others pale in comparison to this one for us in Georgia. I was born 1 month later and my parents still talk about this storm and talk about the days and days of walking around with chainsaws cutting up trees and trying to stay warm.

[FoothillsNC]

Long time WSB TV anchor John Pruitt just wrote an article / blog on the famous 1973 Ice Storm in Atlanta. Good read. Here is the link:

http://www.wsbtv.com...222/detail.html

I agree with Tony. All others pale in comparison to this one for us in Georgia. I was born 1 month later and my parents still talk about this storm and talk about the days and days of walking around with chainsaws cutting up trees and trying to stay warm.

What a great story. Whats the date of the the 73 storm? I was 3 years old and wonder what NC got.

[EmersonGA]

Tony,was 73 a wedge setup. That would have been one heck of a high.

[RaleighWx]

What a great story. Whats the date of the the 73 storm? I was 3 years old and wonder what NC got.

Jan 7th I believe. We got 6.4 inches of snow in RDU from that.

Jan/Feb 1973 was quite the period in the south. Feb 9-11 1973 was the first Carolina Crusher

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Feb1973.html

[Psalm 148:8]

What a great story. Whats the date of the the 73 storm? I was 3 years old and wonder what NC got.

Foothills! You are only a year older than me! Somehow I pictured you looking like Einstein You are definitely one of the brightest pegs in the box...Really wise beyond your years...Your posts are EXCELLENT! And l look forward to more in that loaded pattern we have coming! Please tell me that you DO work as a meteorologist somewhere.

[MichaelJ]

o/t but has anyone heard of snow falling in NC in July, either the late 1800's or early 1900's.(Not Mt. Mitchell). I remember an older friend years ago told me, her grandmother told her (or even great grandmother) about accumulating snow in JULY in Shelby. I never believed it but was curious if maybe she had the dates mixed up, maybe May. I do know of May snow here in the 80's but not July.

Robert I do remember hearing something about that around 1812 or so and in New England they called it the "year without a summer" and it was caused by the explosive eruption of a volcano if I am not mistaken.

[EmersonGA]

Snow in July! That would be crazy but the late 1800s were crazy in terms of snow. I have heard of snow on Clingmans dome in July. Also freezing rain in June on the dome. Sounds like the year without a summer or potato famine type thing.

[EmersonGA]

Michaelj, wasnt it Krakatoa that erupted?

[MOD]

Robert I do remember hearing something about that around 1812 or so and in New England they called it the "year without a summer" and it was caused by the explosive eruption of a volcano if I am not mistaken.

It was 1816. I know this is wikipedia, but... http://en.wikipedia....ithout_a_Summer

Here are some other links.

http://www.astrosoci..._03/summer.html

http://www.farmersal...thout-a-summer/

[Psalm 148:8]

Robert I do remember hearing something about that around 1812 or so and in New England they called it the "year without a summer" and it was caused by the explosive eruption of a volcano if I am not mistaken.

Not Robert, but it was Mount Tambora...In indonesia...The year was 1816....Golbal temps were 0.5C below average....The energy released was 6 million times stronger than an atomic bomb....I teach my students about this when we do volcanoes....England recorded snow that summer.

[NavarreDon]

Jan 7th I believe. We got 6.4 inches of snow in RDU from that.

Jan/Feb 1973 was quite the period in the south. Feb 9-11 1973 was the first Carolina Crusher

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/Feb1973.html

Very interesting write up! I fish regularly out of Destin in the Panhandle and stay with freinds in Navarre. Brewton,AL is about an hour from the gulf & got 6" from that storm. I just can't equate snowfall of that amount down there. When I usually drive thru it seems like one of the hottest places on the trip. Sorry for the ramble.

[HKY_WX]

If this storm were to happen it would be kinda interesting as we would have had 3 major storms right around 2 weeks apart each.

[FoothillsNC]

Jan 7th I believe. We got 6.4 inches of snow in RDU from that.

Jan/Feb 1973 was quite the period in the south. Feb 9-11 1973 was the first Carolina Crusher

http://raleighwx.ame...om/Feb1973.html

is this the storm that gave the big ice to Atlanta? Thank you.

Foothills! You are only a year older than me! Somehow I pictured you looking like Einstein You are definitely one of the brightest pegs in the box...Really wise beyond your years...Your posts are EXCELLENT! And l look forward to more in that loaded pattern we have coming! Please tell me that you DO work as a meteorologist somewhere.

ha, I'm not that old. Just like old Einstein I guess. Was born in 69, barely.

[FoothillsNC]

If this storm were to happen it would be kinda interesting as we would have had 3 major storms right around 2 weeks apart each.

it would be neat to say we lived in a period thats so rare. In my mind, I've always thought the ultimate pattern overall in the last 100 years was probably the Feb/Mar 1960 pattern for the Southest. I guess its too much to ask to get anything like that, but we're off to a good start. I haven't seen the numbers yet but the cold since Dec. 1st has to be one of the coldest periods to date. I guess only time will say if this is just a 6 week long fluke or something more. The looks of things as far as we can realistically see though show this may indeed end up being one historic pattern. After the incredible boredom and nothingness in the Southeast for so many years, we're due for something big.

[Gastonwxman]

it would be neat to say we lived in a period thats so rare. In my mind, I've always thought the ultimate pattern overall in the last 100 years was probably the Feb/Mar 1960 pattern for the Southest. I guess its too much to ask to get anything like that, but we're off to a good start. I haven't seen the numbers yet but the cold since Dec. 1st has to be one of the coldest periods to date. I guess only time will say if this is just a 6 week long fluke or something more. The looks of things as far as we can realistically see though show this may indeed end up being one historic pattern. After the incredible boredom and nothingness in the Southeast for so many years, we're due for something big.

Definitely overdue in our case. Despite last year, there were more close calls than actual verifications of something major for our area. We get like maybe 2 major events but we're waiting at least a few weeks in between before it ever comes to play. This season so far, when one storm leaves, there is another that will take its place and we're back to monitoring something all over again. Like East pointed out earlier, the pattern holds much promise for the Southeast with several potential opportunities, and with several southwestern systems that are entering the southern CA/Baja area, it's almost like watching a never-ending parade of storms occur for the southern half of the U.S. I really like our chances here due to the rarity of such, and this makes watching the winter weather threats much more interesting and fun at the same time albeit the mass confusion amongst the modeling of trying to get a handle on our developing pattern. One thing is for certain, and that is this winter has proven to be more potent than most, if not all of us originally though. I never thought that we could get something like this going on with the Nina and all, but it only proves that the teleconnections of the NAO and AO dictate what occurs on a weekly basis when powerful enough, and luckily that seems to be case after this brief relaxation period as we approach the end of this month. A lot more fun times are ahead for sure.

[RaleighWx]

it would be neat to say we lived in a period thats so rare. In my mind, I've always thought the ultimate pattern overall in the last 100 years was probably the Feb/Mar 1960 pattern for the Southest. I guess its too much to ask to get anything like that, but we're off to a good start. I haven't seen the numbers yet but the cold since Dec. 1st has to be one of the coldest periods to date. I guess only time will say if this is just a 6 week long fluke or something more. The looks of things as far as we can realistically see though show this may indeed end up being one historic pattern. After the incredible boredom and nothingness in the Southeast for so many years, we're due for something big.

The 1/7/73 storm was the ice storm for Atlanta.

For RDU it is the 5th coldest first half of met winter on record back to 1892-93.

[DCMetroWinston]

it would be neat to say we lived in a period thats so rare. In my mind, I've always thought the ultimate pattern overall in the last 100 years was probably the Feb/Mar 1960 pattern for the Southest. I guess its too much to ask to get anything like that, but we're off to a good start. I haven't seen the numbers yet but the cold since Dec. 1st has to be one of the coldest periods to date. I guess only time will say if this is just a 6 week long fluke or something more. The looks of things as far as we can realistically see though show this may indeed end up being one historic pattern. After the incredible boredom and nothingness in the Southeast for so many years, we're due for something big.

Even if the prolonged historic cold lasts only 6-7 weeks, that is still half of meteorological winter.

[Ernest T Bass]

is this the storm that gave the big ice to Atlanta? Thank you.

ha, I'm not that old. Just like old Einstein I guess. Was born in 69, barely.

Off topic I guess, but we're the same age too. What about the winter of 86-87? That was the best I recall growing up. It seemed to be just cold enough for a couple of those snows.

We went to school twice on Sat and into the third week of June.

[FoothillsNC]

The 1/7/73 storm was the ice storm for Atlanta.

For RDU it is the 5th coldest first half of met winter on record back to 1892-93.

thanks. I imagine its about the same for our area, but I haven't had time to look. After last year's cold Winter, I never thought we'd be looking at one about as cold or even colder, and it "seems" like this one is colder so far. Certainly snowier with 2 big events. If there is just one more big event, it will match 1987, and maybe surpass it overall, all things considered, for my immediate area. Even though I'm personally ready for a break and much warmer weather, the extremist in me wants to get another big event of some type to say it was a truly great Winter, and realize at some point, the other shoe will probably drop, and the 70 degree temps will arrive. Looks like that will hold off a while yet though.

[FoothillsNC]

Even if the prolonged historic cold lasts only 6-7 weeks, that is still half of meteorological winter.

true. Its already been historic as RaleighWx pointed out with a top 5 coldest so far. Who knows how the last third will shape up, we may warm up to well above average, or not. I don't see any signs yet of a big warming trend, the pattern keeps repeating.

Off topic I guess, but we're the same age too. What about the winter of 86-87? That was the best I recall growing up. It seemed to be just cold enough for a couple of those snows.

We went to school twice on Sat and into the third week of June.

Def. the best Winter I remember here, overall. It snowed Jan 1st, the 22nd , Feb 15 icestorm and another storm a couple days later, and non stop cold from what I remember. The snow was heavy and wet and caused a lot of damage. There were probably 6 substantial Winter events here, and thats rare here.