HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Given the recent tendency for the models to move high pressure into new england in the long range, I think odds are increasing of some kind of ice storm/event. Of course the highest chance is in nc but there is a chance of it reaching all the way to ga...especially considering the type of cold airmass that should be in place over the mid atlantic and new england. But as you said, with so much spread, who knows what will actually end up happening. If the blocking showing up is correct on day 7-10, there plenty of room for this to trend colder. That HP would be forced to slow down and sit over the midwest/northeast instead of weakening and sliding out. Overall the setup is really kinda scary for the ice potential. I can't really imagine having 1.5-2.0 inches of ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 And out at 240, plenty of more energy floating around out west for more fun and games down the road. I mean, really an amazing, amazing pattern. Normally around here in winter, we have multi week-long stretches where you know we are waiting out the dull period until things get more favorable. This year, the hits just keep on coming. As for next weekend, obviously hanging onto specifics is folly. However, the system should be there. 0z had it, but just held it out west longer. So, the timing will change, but the bottom line is there is tons of potential as we go through the second half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 As has been said, the setup looks good, but there's been so much flip-flopping that it's hard to give it a lot of credibility....yet. It's fun to speculate though. As long as we're speculating, one thing to remember, the model will usually underestimate the magnitude of the cold air. Taken literally, SC and GA get off the hook to some degree, but if this setup maintains, I would be willing to bet that it will actually end up being quite a bit colder....if the setup remains as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Holy crap! I was just reading along thinking an ice storm of this caliber would suck. Thankful I won't be a part of it if it comes to fruition. I completely forgot I'm supposed to be going skiing up at Wolf Ridge resort Friday-Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html This is a pretty cool new feature on ewall for the euro day 8-10. You can really see how this wave evolves. Verbatim, the setup is ice, but the 500mb wave is pretty ideal for ice and snow, maybe needs to be a touch south. If the model is too slow on ejecting it day 6-7, then we're probably talking a colder system aloft. That high has slid pretty far east by day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 And out at 240, plenty of more energy floating around out west for more fun and games down the road. I mean, really an amazing, amazing pattern. Normally around here in winter, we have multi week-long stretches where you know we are waiting out the dull period until things get more favorable. This year, the hits just keep on coming. As for next weekend, obviously hanging onto specifics is folly. However, the system should be there. 0z had it, but just held it out west longer. So, the timing will change, but the bottom line is there is tons of potential as we go through the second half of January. Man, I was just starting to get some work done. Now next week we have another storm "potential". Following these storms 5-6 days out is addictive. Now I know why they call crack... snow. It sounds like it's all in the blocking. If the blocking shows up the storm shows up? I'm just trying to interpret here and follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html This is a pretty cool new feature on ewall for the euro day 8-10. You can really see how this wave evolves. Verbatim, the setup is ice, but the 500mb wave is pretty ideal for ice and snow, maybe needs to be a touch south. If the model is too slow on ejecting it day 6-7, then we're probably talking a colder system aloft. That high has slid pretty far east by day 8. The most awesome part of that loop is the potential even beyond this next ice storm... its like the pattern keeps reloading again and again! Another large Greenland block will probabily force another 1-2 week period of brutally cold air in the east by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Good thing is, a lot of us will probably be off on Monday, so we can follow the developments without work getting in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well I was not here for the 2002 ice storm so I cannot imagine how bad things were but anytime you get 1"+ of QPF in the form of ice is bad. I think the ice storm in 2009 for KY they got 1.5" and they were crippled for weeks and weeks. I remember following BeauDodson on his blog as the storm unfolded and then 3 weeks later when he finally got power back to start posting again. The pictures from that area are insane. Thankfully it is 8-10 days away and will probably change... I want a winter storm bad but not bad enough to wish for 2" ice accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Good thing is, a lot of us will probably be off on Monday, so we can follow the developments without work getting in the way. No school either, so I know where I'll be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Given the recent tendency for the models to move high pressure into new england in the long range, I think odds are increasing of some kind of ice storm/event. Of course the highest chance is in nc but there is a chance of it reaching all the way to ga...especially considering the type of cold airmass that should be in place over the mid atlantic and new england. But as you said, with so much spread, who knows what will actually end up happening. this year looks to have had a couple of good set ups (fortunately we were cold enough for mostly snow) for ice....and as long as its been since we have had one it wouldnt surprise me to see one this year. however, i gotta say 1.5 - 2" of ice is not a storm i want in mby lol. cut that qpf waaaaay down. that is actually a 'scary' amount of ice Good thing is, a lot of us will probably be off on Monday, so we can follow the developments without work getting in the way. not here lol! monday is a make up day at schools, and most businesses were closed 4-5 days this week and are also going to be open monday. so far, i havent really heard anyone complaining since everyones been all cooped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The blocking shown on the Euro is really not as important here as it shows up during/after this potential event. and is pretty far east at that time. As shown on the Euro, this is a more "classic" CAD setup with the high centered in New England and not really being reinforced like the last high was- that is more of a classic ice vs snow setup. After that however, the block is more in place and begins to retrograde, and out west another trough digs in. I think that the pattern towards the end of the month once again has more snow potential than this first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If the blocking showing up is correct on day 7-10, there plenty of room for this to trend colder. That HP would be forced to slow down and sit over the midwest/northeast instead of weakening and sliding out. Overall the setup is really kinda scary for the ice potential. I can't really imagine having 1.5-2.0 inches of ice accretion. Over 2 inches will do amazing damage to a city, and I expect folks will die. I've told Larry I think if Atl. ever gets hit with another storm like 73, it will be horrendous beyond belief. Atl. is so much bigger now, and full of folks from somewhere else, and not used to what Ga. winters can bring. My mother was caring for her bed ridden mother at the time and went for 10 days without electricity, and with only a sterno stove for heat and food. Trees and power poles down in streets everywhere, and no help coming for days, unless there were chainsaws on your block. Mom is tough and can cope, and grandmother dealt with the depression in Atl so she was tough too, but folks in big cities now are spoiled and not very self suficient. It will be very bad to get a 2 or 3 inch gulf bomber like we had then. I promise no one wants it, even if you think you'd like to see it...trust me you don't. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I couldn't fathom the idea of going through such a horrific and widespread-damaging ice storm again in my life like the Dec. 2002 When I was only about 11 years old, I remember sitting in the house for the first 3 days with only a battery-powered radio, a kerosene heater, and several books to read. After the third day, my parents and I decided to live at my Uncle's house since he had his power turned on again and stayed there for 4 days until Gaston county had all the power back on. Very tough time it was, and had to throw away half the food, including the milk, in the trash after being spoiled in the fridge. Here's a study on that event FWIW: http://www.nc-climat...dec2002ice.html The one major positive about all this potential for such is that we are still several days away, and given how things have been, a colder solution is always something to keep in the back of one's mind and in the case, that would be reducing the ice threat. We will DEFINITELY have to watch this to see if the Euro verifies in the near future but for now as a couple of folks have said, no one needs to be focused on specifics. All of this is merely speculation at this point and thankfully that's all it is until there is more of a general consensus with guidance, and at that's the point of which we will start crossing that bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 SO true, So true!! Agree completely, this winter is the winter that looks to keep on giving. 126 is only 5 to 6 days out guys (and gals). Let's hope this is how it plays out. I am getting too much sleep lately and need something to keep me up. Yep. I don't like the looks of this already. If the Euro has the southwest cutoff, most likely some folks are going to be facing an ice storm, some a snowstorm, and some both. These cutoff's have meant business this year and the flow is so progressive in the gulf of Alaska they will come east at some point. Its too early to worry on timing yet, but the pieces are there again for a big ticket item. HKY was right , it resembles Dec 2002 at this point. I was in Boone for this one and I recall having snow (which was fine) but the T of ice after wards was very bad up on the mountain.. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Over 2 inches will do amazing damage to a city, and I expect folks will die. I've told Larry I think if Atl. ever gets hit with another storm like 73, it will be horrendous beyond belief. Atl. is so much bigger now, and full of folks from somewhere else, and not used to what Ga. winters can bring. My mother was caring for her bed ridden mother at the time and went for 10 days without electricity, and with only a sterno stove for heat and food. Trees and power poles down in streets everywhere, and no help coming for days, unless there were chainsaws on your block. Mom is tough and can cope, and grandmother dealt with the depression in Atl so she was tough too, but folks in big cities now are spoiled and not very self suficient. It will be very bad to get a 2 or 3 inch gulf bomber like we had then. I promise no one wants it, even if you think you'd like to see it...trust me you don't. T Wow. I bet that was very difficult on you Mom, Tony. I hope to never experience anything like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 SO true, So true!! I was in Boone for this one and I recall having snow (which was fine) but the T of ice after wards was very bad up on the mountain.. http://www4.ncsu.edu...cases/20021204/ what's amazing is that most places got 1/2-3/4 and everyone remembers it so well Imagine if that was 1 to 1.5 inches... It would be insane around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 PNA looks to be going positive so why is a +PNA theoretically better for winter weather around here? It seems the past 2 events were with -PNA and we (except RDU!) did just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Over 2 inches will do amazing damage to a city, and I expect folks will die. I've told Larry I think if Atl. ever gets hit with another storm like 73, it will be horrendous beyond belief. Atl. is so much bigger now, and full of folks from somewhere else, and not used to what Ga. winters can bring. My mother was caring for her bed ridden mother at the time and went for 10 days without electricity, and with only a sterno stove for heat and food. Trees and power poles down in streets everywhere, and no help coming for days, unless there were chainsaws on your block. Mom is tough and can cope, and grandmother dealt with the depression in Atl so she was tough too, but folks in big cities now are spoiled and not very self suficient. It will be very bad to get a 2 or 3 inch gulf bomber like we had then. I promise no one wants it, even if you think you'd like to see it...trust me you don't. T I can remember a few crazy icestorms, dec 02, feb 96 come to mind first. The one from the early 90's that paralyzed the southeast. I remember that one well but can't recall the date. I think it may have been 94. That one caused tremendous damage and most of the zr was with sfc temps in the lower 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The most awesome part of that loop is the potential even beyond this next ice storm... its like the pattern keeps reloading again and again! Another large Greenland block will probabily force another 1-2 week period of brutally cold air in the east by the end of January. Yeah I'm more excited about the potential pattern reloading. A system coming in with temps right at the freezing mark doesn't do much IMO. Usually that turns out to be rain. I think it's got to get into the 20s to really be a real threat. Best case in that situation is snow that melts from the bottom up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Euro ensembles show a lot of spread during the period of the Op Euro's storm, especially regarding the SW system. Good news is that it is pretty cold and the block is established by 180 hours, I still think that regardless what happens in 7 days or so the really interesting time could come later on towards the week of the 24th-31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is the mother of all ice storms. http://en.wikipedia....e_storm_of_1998 http://www2.canada.c...torm/index.html Death Toll: 35 Injured: 945 Somewhere ended up with 5" of ZR out of that. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 just as cheez said the pattern the week following the possible ice threat looks very cold and stormy as well the 24-31st looks to have very good potential for a winter storm somewhere in the east. The NAO looks set to nose dive in the long range an amazing pattern and one that will most likely be referenced to alot in years to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well, Blacksburg has changed again this package.... Back to and again. lol .MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yea it looks like a huge ice storm in the beginning, but than the system phases more fully right on top of us, so it would be verbatim an Ice to Snow system across NC/SC. Plenty of time to watch of course... but here we go again! The Euro has really been latching on to these storms in this time range. I'll be watching this one very carefully.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I can remember a few crazy icestorms, dec 02, feb 96 come to mind first. The one from the early 90's that paralyzed the southeast. I remember that one well but can't recall the date. I think it may have been 94. That one caused tremendous damage and most of the zr was with sfc temps in the lower 20's. It was 1994 and it crippled Memphis if I remember right. We had about 1/4" of ice and 1/2" of snow but it stayed frozen for days. That storm had the best sledding. The driveways were frozen for days and we could use our metal tracked sled and build impressive speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 what's amazing is that most places got 1/2-3/4 and everyone remembers it so well Imagine if that was 1 to 1.5 inches... It would be insane around here. I've lived through some fairly significant ice storms here in SC. Many of them had significantly more precip than ice accumulation. In otherwords only portion of what falls actually freezes on surfaces. I think that is mostly due to fact that some of these storms featured HEAVY rainfall rates so the rain was falling too fast to freeze. I suppose if the temperatures are low enough even heavy rain can freeze on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If the blocking showing up is correct on day 7-10, there plenty of room for this to trend colder. That HP would be forced to slow down and sit over the midwest/northeast instead of weakening and sliding out. Overall the setup is really kinda scary for the ice potential. I can't really imagine having 1.5-2.0 inches of ice accretion. I can tell you personally from Dec 2002 thats exactly what happened here. Epic and Im not exagerating. My entire county lost power, 911,hospitals e.t.c. I was out for 7 days. The worst of it was you couldnt get gas and the generator dont run good w/o it. The state had to contract with outside companies to come in and clean up all the timber. They worked on this for months. The only saving grace was we had early December temps following the storm. I cant imagine having vodka cold follow a scenerio like this the following week, like it did this week. Hopefully we can get real lucky and get 1-2 inches of qpf in the form of snow, but Ive seen this coming, up until last weekend the ice storms that are an annual occurrence here in the CAD region have been absent for way to long. Should be fun from a weather standpoint to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is the mother of all ice storms. http://en.wikipedia....e_storm_of_1998 http://www2.canada.c...torm/index.html Death Toll: 35 Injured: 945 Somewhere ended up with 5" of ZR out of that. Wow! The weather Channel had storm stories edition on this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I've lived through some fairly significant ice storms here in SC. Many of them had significantly more precip than ice accumulation. In otherwords only portion of what falls actually freezes on surfaces. I think that is mostly due to fact that some of these storms featured HEAVY rainfall rates so the rain was falling too fast to freeze. I suppose if the temperatures are low enough even heavy rain can freeze on contact. Just to give perspective of what the euro is showing though. I was just looking at some zoomed in images of the sfc temps from hr 192 to 210. There is a bubble of -5C temps just north of the NC/VA border. So i think the euro would be spitting out NC sfc temps in the mid to upper 20's if it were to come close to verifying. To be honest, those sfc temps and the thicknesses might support sleet in that scenario. But still, many areas would be seeing the majority of whatever falls being frozen/freezing. ** edit to say it also has 925mb temps of -6C all the way down to GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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