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Upcoming Storm Threats


burgertime

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Looks like the GFS is hinting at something around the Jan 19th period. The question will be the temps. We might want to keep an eye on this system though. So what are your thoughts for the next storm if any coming up?

Yeah, I noticed this timeframe also...The 12z euro had the storm but a little to far east....Temps look cold though!

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Given the flip-flop of temperature predictions for that time frame (I keep going from 20's & 30's to 40's to 60's) I'd say anything is possible; it's probably more likely to happen if the Euro shows it around 4-5 days out; so stay tuned!!

NAO forecast keeps flip-flopping also; that's something else to keep a keen eye on..

I'd be interested in what the mets on this board have to say..

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Yeah, I noticed this timeframe also...The 12z euro had the storm but a little to far east....Temps look cold though!

Yea the Euro looked great from this time frame...kind of had the Christmas look to it the low was just a little too south.

Burger, don't do this to me, man. I'm going to have a stroke by the time this winter is over.

You and me both...

heart-attack-2-o.gif

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Looks like the 540 line will be well to our North it is possible we could see some early light Fr. Rain in the normal CAD areas (ie N. NC foothills etc.) but quickly changing to rain and will be mainly rain for the vast majority of the SE if not all.

Here are what the models look like verbatim for the 19th time frame storm

00z GFS would be snow in the lower part of SC

00z Euro too warm for everyone

6z GFS When the bulk of precip moves in 40 N all snow

12z GFS too warm for everyone

12z Euro too far south then it bombs out too far east

So there is certainly a chance for someone in and SC...doesn't look to good for GA but you gotta start somewhere...of course it's all tempered with this is 150 hours out. Just figure for a lot of folks who may get shafted in RDU it might be something to take their minds off of it.

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I believe we stand the chance to see one more accumulating winter event this month, whether that be in the form of snow, ice, or both. The pattern supports for such a chance and next mid week might be the time period for the threat. The NAO/AO briefly trend toward the neutral phase around the 16th before going back down negative again with the PNA inching closer and eventually to positive. Also if you haven't noticed, the Pacific seems to be awfully busy with a couple of major storm systems out there. Right now there is one that is closing in on the West Coast and that might be the one that affects us next week, but there's another one on its hills that could be it also (the way I see it). We'll have to keep a close eye on this one but like Burger said, temperatures are going to have to cooperate for this one. Hopefully the folks who are missing out with our current event will be able to get in more snow by that time.

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Here are what the models look like verbatim for the 19th time frame storm

00z GFS would be snow in the lower part of SC

00z Euro too warm for everyone

6z GFS When the bulk of precip moves in 40 N all snow

12z GFS too warm for everyone

12z Euro too far south then it bombs out too far east

So there is certainly a chance for someone in and SC...doesn't look to good for GA but you gotta start somewhere...of course it's all tempered with this is 150 hours out. Just figure for a lot of folks who may get shafted in RDU it might be something to take their minds off of it.

Wow burger, appreciate you taking the time to look at the models while the current storm is just now exiting stage right...thanks for the initial breakdown for us, now it's time to sit and watch! I'm excited just to have another chance as this one was terrible for my area.

If it's a low bombing off the coast, that would be a better chance than this thing we have today.

Haha...oh Brick...Keep in mind the fail system we had today for central NC showed a low bombing off the coast at 138 hours out and totals over .8" for the area.

YMN0b.gif

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Here are what the models look like verbatim for the 19th time frame storm

00z GFS would be snow in the lower part of SC

00z Euro too warm for everyone

6z GFS When the bulk of precip moves in 40 N all snow

12z GFS too warm for everyone

12z Euro too far south then it bombs out too far east

So there is certainly a chance for someone in and SC...doesn't look to good for GA but you gotta start somewhere...of course it's all tempered with this is 150 hours out. Just figure for a lot of folks who may get shafted in RDU it might be something to take their minds off of it.

Would like to add that 18z GFS is similar to 12z GFS.

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Yep, looks like it might be a great rain producer if nothing else.

Lakes cutter or OTS, with the HP progged to come in on the backside, to weak and it is through the MS Valley, to strong and it is OTS. As modeled by the global, would be an all RN event with a track through the Apps. When does the growing season start?

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Lakes cutter or OTS, with the HP progged to come in on the backside, to weak and it is through the MS Valley, to strong and it is OTS. As modeled by the global, would be an all RN event with a track through the Apps. When does the growing season start?

Ill favor an OTS track right now... doesnt take much to turn OTS into big snow event in eastern NC

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