aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM for DCA .30 precip NAM for BOS 1.67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 0Z Euro comes up w/a diff scenario with next weekend's storm, pushing it back by a day or so but making it colder and all snow for IAD and BWI (and I looked at the 6 hr skewts that confirm precip as all snow) problem is, it will change again at 12Z Reminds me of 2003 where on Sat we had northern stream light rain and then on Sunday the main body came up from the south to crush us. I'm not saying this is that... just was my first thought. Think we can all agree that this stands little chance of verifying. Seasonal trends... until I see otherwise... seasonal trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I really want this system to prove that our area can get substantial precip...until that happens whether it's rain or whatever I will not get excited over any model depiction of winter weather around here later on. We had a big rainstorm in December before our cold and dry stretch. I think another rainstorm would just prove that it can rain heavily but only snow very lightly this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Its so ridiculous how we're 48 hours out and the GFS and NAM are still worlds apart on QPF numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Based on 12Z GFS, the NAM qpf is looking good for the "hole" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 12z GFS does look like it took a step to the NAM though, but still more QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS looks like the seasonal pattern for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This is probably the worst winter I have ever seen as far as the models. They can't seem to come to a consensus on anything inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS does what the NAM does and keep the major part of the precip well to the East ...so to me nothing has changed and both models will probably trend drier until both have less than .10 region wide. The storm later on passes to our South....congrats Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Maybe per the GFS, Charlottesvile can get clipped by the Friday system. We've payed our penance this year for last year, and I've apologized to all parties involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hey now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hey now NoRTH TrEND!!~!!!!1!1!1!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hey now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 This will definetly be a winter known for the near misses.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 GFS says cold....eh...not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 We had a big rainstorm in December before our cold and dry stretch. I think another rainstorm would just prove that it can rain heavily but only snow very lightly this winter. That was before this pattern set in. Lessburg is right, since this basic pattern established itself we have not had significant precip in the area. Even the rainstorm around New Years underperformed west of 95. Even though this is going to be mostly rain, it would be good to get significant precip. I know some believe it is just chance, but I do not buy that. This area has been the precip minimum for just about every storm since early December, that goes beyond chance for me and is more troubling then specific changes in track or temperature that we are seeing. The one constant change for EVERY storm this winter has been for it to dry up for this area as they approach. This has been accomplished several different ways but its been constant with every storm. Until that changes I do not see how we get anything more then the worthless nuisance type events we have had so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 hey now Finally a west to east precip pattern depicted on the GFS at day 5-6. Much better than the dreaded sw to ne pattern that has screwed us. This will likely trend north. And remember, just 1-2 days ago, the GFS didn't really even have a storm for late next week. I know that a lot of people are gun shy given our winter so far, but this threat looks and feels different. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Finally a west to east precip pattern depicted on the GFS at day 5-6. Much better than the dreaded sw to ne pattern that has screwed us. This will likely trend north. And remember, just 1-2 days ago, the GFS didn't really even have a storm for late next week. I know that a lot of people are gun shy given our winter so far, but this threat looks and feels different. MDstorm That storm as depicted by all the models would have almost no chance to be a signficant snowstorm. There is barely any upper level support and no ridging in front. Furthermore, the cold is coming in behind, so even if we had those things...it would then probably be a rainstorm. This is probably a 1-3 or 2-4" type event for a very narrow band along the northern fringe as the cold pushes east most of the precip will get shunted quickly south because there is not enough ridging in front. The threat for a storm would be a day or 2 after if enough energy hands around the southeast and something can dig in and we might get a storm to develop that has a shot to amplify. That storm as shown for late week has no shot to become anything truly significant. You say we need a "west to east" storm but without a block any west to east storm is not going to be able to get heavy precip into this area. The mtns to our west would eat up most of it. With a block you can sometimes get a storm to try to amplify but be shunted east as it does without gaining much northward latitude. We have no block so if it amplifies we would go to rain. If it doesnt we do not get heavy precip anyways and its another nuisance event and nothing more. I see no way for that storm to become significant in this pattern. The euro solution of hanging energy around then amplifying and bringing a storm up the coast a day later would be the only way. However, its funny that the euro has the "precip hole" its just down over southwestern VA on last nights run. Anyone want to lay odds that moves into the DC area by the time the storm comes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Finally a west to east precip pattern depicted on the GFS at day 5-6. Much better than the dreaded sw to ne pattern that has screwed us. This will likely trend north. And remember, just 1-2 days ago, the GFS didn't really even have a storm for late next week. I know that a lot of people are gun shy given our winter so far, but this threat looks and feels different. MDstorm its been there before this year and it always changes this is a God awful NINA pattern for us and it started with the late FEB storm that missed us and hit just to our NE; go back and look at the maps if you don't believe me, but I pointed it out to Ian around 8-9 days ago when this last storm was modeled to have the same hook that one did if anyone recalls, I also posted earlier this year that imho, our snowy pattern started with the 3/1/09 storm my suspicion is the pattern will hold until late FEB (if we are lucky,) but more likely MAR or APR next year will be diff than this pattern even as a NINA, maybe not good for us either,but at least diff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Negativity gone rampid, jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Negativity gone rampid, jeez. negativity or truth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 its been there before this year and it always changes this is a God awful NINA pattern for us and it started with the late FEB storm that missed us and hit just to our NE; go back and look at the maps if you don't believe me, but I pointed it out to Ian around 8-9 days ago when this last storm was modeled to have the same hook that one did if anyone recalls, I also posted earlier this year that imho, our snowy pattern started with the 3/1/09 storm my suspicion is the pattern will hold until late FEB (if we are lucky,) but more likely MAR or APR next year will be diff than this pattern even as a NINA, maybe not good for us either,but at least diff I don't want to be that pessimistic but the way the models trend before each event it is really hard not to be. Todays GFS is still cold but not overly cold it's just one long run on sentence of 30's and just miss precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 In NADS we trust. We need a new thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 weak hope on the GGEM at 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Negativity gone rampid, jeez. How can you ignore the trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 negativity or truth? thank you sometimes, no matter big a weenie you are, you just have to call a spade a spade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 In NADS we trust. We need a new thread I'll start a new one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 thank you sometimes, no matter big a weenie you are, you just have to call a spade a spade I'm pretty negative but I don't get the winter cancel stuff yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 How can you ignore the trends? When did I say I was? I still don't sh*t my pants over it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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