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Next weeks Storm Threat and DT's Jan 21-22 Facebook threat


Ji

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I love this from HPC. I guess the message here is don't get excited or discouraged.

USED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR

DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC

ECMWF AND 12Z/15 ECENS MEANS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. CONFIDENCE IS

ABYSMALLY LOW FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH LITTLE IF ANY DETERMINISTIC

RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS...AND CONFLICTING ENSEMBLE

MEANS FROM THE GEFS...ECENS...AND CMCE. FELT THE BEST COURSE OF

ACTION TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME CONTINUITY WAS TO BLEND THE A

SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF ONE OF THE MEANS...WITH THE ECENS MEAN MOST

CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5. WITH ALMOST NOTHING

UPON WHICH TO HANG A HAT...PLAYED THE ODDS OF IN-HOUSE SURFACE

PRESSURE VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST FOUR MONTHS...WHICH GAVE THE

DETERMINISTIC ECMWF A CONSIDERABLE EDGE.

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I love this from HPC. I guess the message here is don't get excited or discouraged.

USED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR

DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC

ECMWF AND 12Z/15 ECENS MEANS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. CONFIDENCE IS

ABYSMALLY LOW FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH LITTLE IF ANY DETERMINISTIC

RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS...AND CONFLICTING ENSEMBLE

MEANS FROM THE GEFS...ECENS...AND CMCE. FELT THE BEST COURSE OF

ACTION TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME CONTINUITY WAS TO BLEND THE A

SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF ONE OF THE MEANS...WITH THE ECENS MEAN MOST

CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5. WITH ALMOST NOTHING

UPON WHICH TO HANG A HAT...PLAYED THE ODDS OF IN-HOUSE SURFACE

PRESSURE VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST FOUR MONTHS...WHICH GAVE THE

DETERMINISTIC ECMWF A CONSIDERABLE EDGE.

I lol'd.

Also, they're right :arrowhead: This week in forecasting sucks the big one.

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I love this from HPC. I guess the message here is don't get excited or discouraged.

USED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR

DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 DETERMINISTIC

ECMWF AND 12Z/15 ECENS MEANS FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. CONFIDENCE IS

ABYSMALLY LOW FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH LITTLE IF ANY DETERMINISTIC

RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS...AND CONFLICTING ENSEMBLE

MEANS FROM THE GEFS...ECENS...AND CMCE. FELT THE BEST COURSE OF

ACTION TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME CONTINUITY WAS TO BLEND THE A

SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF ONE OF THE MEANS...WITH THE ECENS MEAN MOST

CLOSELY RESEMBLING THE ECMWF THROUGH DAY 5. WITH ALMOST NOTHING

UPON WHICH TO HANG A HAT...PLAYED THE ODDS OF IN-HOUSE SURFACE

PRESSURE VERIFICATION OVER THE PAST FOUR MONTHS...WHICH GAVE THE

DETERMINISTIC ECMWF A CONSIDERABLE EDGE.

Rumors of storms and cold.

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