aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM will be dry Through 6 this is a money prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 LC sees a mixed bag for the early week storm. He thinks that there will be a more significant event at the end of the week (I-95 right on the rain/freezing precip line). Interestingly enough, he goes on to comment about signs for a warm Feb for the east coast------LOL------- JB, paging JB. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-january-15-2011-at-6-30-p-m-ct MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 <br />Reading the LWX discussion, it seems they put little faith in the NAM and are putting all marbles into the GFS forecast. Be interesting to see how it plays out. GFS and EC pretty much at odds next week. Interesting times.<br /><br /><br /><br />LWX not going with any end of week storm----- good sign so far, if you like storms. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> LWX not going with any end of week storm----- good sign so far, if you like storms. MDstorm Actually, LWX's AFD talked about 2 threats after MLK uber ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM continues to say nyet on ice/snow of consequence but GFS was better with last event (then again, NAM was better with Christmas storm ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM continues to say nyet on ice/snow of consequence but GFS was better with last event (then again, NAM was better with Christmas storm ) NAM is way East....might not be any qpf at all back here....book it...GFS sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So we are tracking ice for Monday and potential SECS for Friday? I am a bit confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So we are tracking ice for Monday and potential SECS for Friday? I am a bit confused. No partly cloudy on Monday and rain on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM is way East....might not be any qpf at all back here....book it...GFS sucks the models really have been garbage this year one storm one model is good, the next event another model, and on and on its impossible to figure which model will prevail, including the Euro which has changed in the medium range each of the last 3 runs (maybe more, but I can't keep them straight any more) this really has been the worst winter for model performance I've seen since I started to follow them the winter of 96/97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM is way East....might not be any qpf at all back here....book it...GFS sucks Looks like they are lined up pretty well at all levels, but the GFS has a stronger low along the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So we are tracking ice for Monday and potential SECS for Friday? I am a bit confused. we're tracking anything but the Ravens who have yet found another way to loose to Pitt the Ravens are to playoff games as the MA is to snow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 the models really have been garbage this year one storm one model is good, the next event another model, and on and on its impossible to figure which model will prevail, including the Euro which has changed in the medium range each of the last 3 runs (maybe more, but I can't keep them straight any more) this really has been the worst winter for models I've seen since I started to follow them the winter of 96/97 I'm not really expecting anything on Monday but if we can't even get rain then how in the world do we think we are going to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Looks like they are lined up pretty well at all levels, but the GFS has a stronger low along the SE coast. Been watching these things long enough...if the NAM sticks to its dry guns then expect that to be the outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 So, if the 0Z GFS is similar to the 18Z, do we at least partially buy into it or do with stick with what has been happening all season (screwjobs galore)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm not really expecting anything on Monday but if we can't even get rain then how in the world do we think we are going to get snow. I'm with ya' I said several pages back (this morning) in this thread that the Euro's qpf from last night's run was a pattern change imho of course, 12Z took it back so pattern change cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I'm with ya' I said several pages back (this morning) in this thread that the Euro's qpf from last night's run was a pattern change imho of course, 12Z took it back so pattern change cancel NAM and Euro match? Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 It's possible that since every storm has figured out a way to miss us or underperform for snow that a rainstorm would figure out a way to overperform. I'm riding the 18Z GFS all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 we're tracking anything but the Ravens who have yet found another way to loose to Pitt the Ravens are to playoff games as the MA is to snow this year I am on suicide watch , if we do not get some wintry weather here this week i am going to go on a rampage . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 When I saw the NAM pull a Dec 26th qpf track yesterday I had a poopy feeling...now I'm all backed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The NAM looks like .5 @ DCA right? Iffy on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The NAM looks like .5 @ DCA right? Iffy on temps. No not that much...less than .2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 No not that much...less than .2 Yup, I was looking at the wrong maps. With the ratios we would get .2. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 To the cabin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 At this point I don't care what the GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 At this point I don't care what the GFS shows You do not even believe that after you typed it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 You do not even believe that after you typed it . Funny! This thread is so confusing to figure out what threat is being discussed. But, since at least one model appears to screw us with both "storms," it is safe to say "Next!" to both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Hopefully some good wintry stuff before rain The NADS is the Euro fantasy storm on the 21st, not Monday night's potential slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 can someone provide a link to the nadas model. If it exitsts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NAM continues to say nyet on ice/snow of consequence but GFS was better with last event (then again, NAM was better with Christmas storm ) Whichever model has the worse solution for us will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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