timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 this looks pretty intimidating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 this looks pretty intimidating wimp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 this looks pretty intimidating That's interesting. Do you have a link for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 [/b] especially since they have been so good this year They will be better for this one... more wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 They will be better for this one... more wintry meh, I've given up on this year I'm here out of habit at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 this looks pretty intimidating .01".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That's interesting. Do you have a link for that? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_zr.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 .01".. Yeah I know... but ice is intimidating! Ice will destroy you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 .01".. >.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 >.01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i feel like i just got dunked on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 i feel like i just got dunked on... It may just depend on when the heaviest comes through. Though I seem to recall heavier rain can warm the surface in a situation like this regardless. I don't buy the GFS verbatim right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I think people should take a step back...as least based on this guidance. 32 and moderate rain will not likely lead to a high impact ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Is it possible? Sure. Probable? Never the most probable situation. I've posted multiple examples over the years-- models will not nail the exact hour of transition from freezing rain to rain. Sometimes they rush the process, sometimes they end up too cold. But, every single true ice storm that we've had from 1994 until now was an overperformer-- ZR held on longer than originally forecast. The most prominent busts were 1/27-28/94 (forecast was for the temperature to rise into the 50's! Instead, temps actually fell into the lower 20's at IAD), 2/8-9/94, 1/8-9/99, 1/14-15/99, 2/13-14/07 (for the eastern 'burbs), and 2/12-13/08 (WWA became Ice Storm Warning). Did this data come from memory? If so, that is quite remarkable. I always have to go back and research this stuff because the only thing I'm really good at remembering is how much beer is in the fridge and sports scores. High impact was poor choice of words on my part. I don't think this will be serious or historic ice storm. I was just thinking that the 18Z GFS paints a disruptive outcome vs our rain storm outlook just a few days ago. Either way, I like ice storms (especially when there is front end snow/sleet). They make for some good photos and they make it an easy decision not to leave the house for any reason on a work day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I would like to see some snow and sleet...freezing rain can kiss my grits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I would like to see some snow and sleet...freezing rain can kiss my grits Stow it Dinghy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I would like to see some snow and sleet...freezing rain can kiss my grits Freezing rain is evil and dangerous.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 OK. Ravens have lost. So my happiness is now solely based on the NADS storm. How's it looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 OK. Ravens have lost. So my happiness is now solely based on the NADS storm. How's it looking? Hopefully some good wintry stuff before rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Reading the LWX discussion, it seems they put little faith in the NAM and are putting all marbles into the GFS forecast. Be interesting to see how it plays out. GFS and EC pretty much at odds next week. Interesting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 A bit out of its range.. but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeedaSnowday Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 OK. Ravens have lost. So my happiness is now solely based on the NADS storm. How's it looking? yeah, I need to hibernate til training camp - need some wintry weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 OK. Ravens have lost. So my happiness is now solely based on the NADS storm. How's it looking? the money players, houys and boldin can't catch a football. And hous had complained about not being used enough. Well I guess he ate his crow. Ravens aren't good enough to win the superbowl. Wil they ever be/?They choked at the worst possible time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Hopefully some good wintry stuff before rain Wait...I thought the Euro's storm for next weekend is the NADS storm. Not so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here comes the 00z NAM... perhaps we could see some agreement somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Wait...I thought the Euro's storm for next weekend is the NADS storm. Not so? I thought you were talking about Mon Night-Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Here comes the 00z NAM... perhaps we could see some agreement somewhere? NAM will be dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I thought you were talking about Mon Night-Tuesday... I just thought that next weekend's storm was the "NADS" storm. I didn't look at anything today, is the Euro still showing something for that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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