Kmlwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 have you ever had no power for a week in Jan??The height of the cold season???If you had, you wouldn't make the above comment..,!!! My comment was against having FZRA due to my having lost power for about a week during the late 90s ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 An inch of snow w/ .25" of ice is cool to look at. Book it! but if it starts to bring down power lines, I sure dont want it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Updated LWX zones snow and sleet till midnight.. then freezing rain after midnight for most. Change to rain will be time dependent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Gas fire place and hot water heater and we have a generator for the fridges and cable. Cooking on the grill and sleeping bags. No problem over here. not only that, my power lines are underground, I'll still take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Updated LWX zones snow and sleet till midnight.. then freezing rain after midnight for most. Change to rain will be time dependent what is the starting time for the snow/sleet?? How long is it supposed to last ?? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 but if it starts to bring down power lines, I sure dont want it!! time to rent your generator now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what is the starting time for the snow/sleet?? How long is it supposed to last ?? thanks The Area Forecast Matrices suggest 2 pm for chances to see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm gonna be real weenie for a sec.....Also remember that they put an 18Z WX balloon launch to better initialize the 18z with Data... the GFS also tends warm us Too Fast with these events. Yes, its only 1 model, but I dunno, I have a feeling something will come of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm gonna be real weenie for a sec.....Also remember that they put an 18Z WX balloon launch to better initialize the 18z with Data... the GFS also tends warm us Too Fast with these events. I dunno, I have a feeling something will come of this. We will see frozen from this... the question will be how long for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm gonna be real weenie for a sec.....Also remember that they put an 18Z WX balloon launch to better initialize the 18z with Data... the GFS also tends warm us Too Fast with these events. Yes, its only 1 model, but I dunno, I have a feeling something will come of this. well, if you are unable to post Monday, we'll know your forecast was a good one! j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This is fun threat. It was mostly all rain when the models sniffed it out. Now everything has trended towards are real winter event. That plus multiple possible threats to track afterwards. I took a couple of days off from watching weather so I'm looking forward to a weenie week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 My comment was against having FZRA due to my having lost power for about a week during the late 90s ice storm... thompson creek windows, they are great for keeping heat in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 not only that, my power lines are underground, I'll still take it. Not true. Wires in the air still connect to your underground wires. So it doesn't matter if it is underground or aboveground in the long run because it still can be affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 well, if you are unable to post Monday, we'll know your forecast was a good one! j/k haha+. I'm actually kinda biased... Senior Exams FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This is fun threat. It was mostly all rain when the models sniffed it out. Now everything has trended towards are real winter event. That plus multiple possible threats to track afterwards. I took a couple of days off from watching weather so I'm looking forward to a weenie week. exactly I think the 1st name of this thread was something along the lines of "next weeks high QPF rain storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Snow to sleet to zr to rain are actually pretty fun. Let's you know exactly what is going on in the upper levels and when. Everyone will be focused on how long the snow hangs on until the sleet obs start and then when everything goes over to rain we stare at our thermo until it hits 32+ and then time for a nap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 At the surface, this 18Z run of the GFS is the coldest so far west of the city: http://coolwx.com/cg...1518&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cg...18&field=2meter Verbatim, the run shows IAD staying at or below freezing until around noon. So, this run already identifies the ZR potential for IAD and westward-- it doesn't need to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 4 day weekend FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 At the surface, this 18Z run of the GFS is the coldest so far west of the city: http://coolwx.com/cg...1518&field=prec http://coolwx.com/cg...18&field=2meter Verbatim, the run shows IAD staying at or below freezing until afternoon. So, this run already identifies the ZR potential for IAD and westward-- it doesn't need to be colder. Wow. I guess the possibilities have become serious for a high impact event. Do you think the model is too cold or is there even more more to go colder given the setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Wow. I guess the possibilities have become serious for a high impact event. Do you think the model it too cold or is there even more more to go colder given the setup? I wouldn't say "serious" - this will most likely not be a huge icing event. I'd like to see more models come around to the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 4 day weekend FTW! Plenty of time to geek out over our slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I wouldn't say "serious" - this will most likely not be a huge icing event. I'd like to see more models come around to the same idea. I've noticed that since the '99 event, Ice storms have been hyped like gibberish around here. We had no lights for 9 days if I remember correctly, it was.....bad. I was like 7yrs old then, so my memory could be botched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Wow. I guess the possibilities have become serious for a high impact event. Do you think the model is too cold or is there even more more to go colder given the setup? Is it possible? Sure. Probable? Never the most probable situation. I've posted multiple examples over the years-- models will not nail the exact hour of transition from freezing rain to rain. Sometimes they rush the process, sometimes they end up too cold. But, every single true ice storm that we've had from 1994 until now was an overperformer-- ZR held on longer than originally forecast. The most prominent busts were 1/27-28/94 (forecast was for the temperature to rise into the 50's! Instead, temps actually fell into the lower 20's at IAD), 2/8-9/94, 1/8-9/99, 1/14-15/99, 2/13-14/07 (for the eastern 'burbs), and 2/12-13/08 (WWA became Ice Storm Warning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Wow. I guess the possibilities have become serious for a high impact event. Do you think the model is too cold or is there even more more to go colder given the setup? The GFS has held the cold air too long before and it has also not held it long enough before. It can bust on either side with these types of storms. I've seen the forecast for 33 and rain by 7am and it stays below freezing the entire day but I've also seen it go the other way and get nothing frozen at all. This looks deep enough to get some frozen but it's a forecast nightmare to predict when we go above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Wow. I guess the possibilities have become serious for a high impact event. Do you think the model is too cold or is there even more more to go colder given the setup? I doubt this will be a high impact icing event. Every year the models point to an icing event and the crowds come out screaming that this will be the end of the world ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The GFS has held the cold air too long before and it has also not held it long enough before. It can bust on either side with these types of storms. I've seen the forecast for 33 and rain by 7am and it stays below freezing the entire day but I've also seen it go the other way and get nothing frozen at all. This looks deep enough to get some frozen but it's a forecast nightmare to predict when we go above 32. I've always thought when it comes to cold air damming east of the mountains, the GFS tends to scour out the cold too fast. Maybe I'm wrong.(?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I've always thought when it comes to cold air damming east of the mountains, the GFS tends to scour out the cold too fast. Maybe I'm wrong.(?) Not always. Nothing is always 100% of the time. He said sometimes it goes either way. Yes you are right - it "tends to" this doesn't mean it always happens this way. Plus as you get closer to the even the chance that it has the correct timing of scouring out gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS MOS puts down around .20" qpf as snow both IAD and BWI, then BWI gets a tad warmer at the surface and IAD stay colder longer and only peaks at 33 on Tuesday 18Z I think we watch the last minute trend before making a decision Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Not always. Nothing is always 100% of the time. He said sometimes it goes either way. Yes you are right - it "tends to" this doesn't mean it always happens this way. Plus as you get closer to the even the chance that it has the correct timing of scouring out gets better. For the most part, but the models can still underestimate the CAD even in close range. The short range models should give us a clue as well as we get to the 12z runs tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 For the most part, but the models can still underestimate the CAD even in close range. The short range models should give us a clue as well especially since they have been so good this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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