yoda Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 So Ji... anything super awesomez on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The front leaves a piece of energy in the SE again but it beats the cold air to the east coast. Details to be determined in 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 00z euro looks nothing like 00z Gfs as it shows a coastal storm with some snow for RIC and DC at 156-180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 00z euro looks nothing like 00z Gfs as it shows a coastal storm with some snow for RIC and DC at 156-180 The 12z Euro run had a low cut through Pa. ... We'll see what happens as the week goes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 The 12z Euro run had a low cut through Pa. ... We'll see what happens as the week goes by. Euro is 500 miles s and e of gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro is 500 miles s and e of gfs GGEM slower?? (and warmer...) Nogaps... GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ggem is very wet and barely cold enough for dc. Gfs ensembles for the most part dont agree with the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ggem is very wet and barely cold enough for dc. Gfs ensembles for the most part dont agree with the OP The GFS ensembles are all over the place. With a good 6 or so driving a huge cutter into the lakes... 4 or so showing a south east storm that barely gets to DC... And a few others show some sort of Miller B type Scenario. Edit.. well not quite 4.. .. only 1 shows that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 06Z DGEX looks somewhat interesting. Neutral tilted trough at the Mississippi with northern energy diving down. Hard to tell with this image but doesn't look like we have a 50/50 low in place though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro Ensembles. Deep trough which spawns a weak low running up the seaboard. Temps are to warm for the mid atlantic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 00Z Euro ensem. turns us to a weak positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Does this look familiar? Except move the storm we just had 300-400 miles north. Even Maine would get rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The countdown to T+84h begins... see you suckers in a few more days. I'm not thinking snow storm at this point for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 My expectations for the next event are probably a little bit of the kitchen sink for a bit then gradually shifting to a cold rain....that would be climo for a nina here. And for Ellinwood out here in Leesburg this type of system would be more frozen here than in DC. I remember a storm back in 03 I think where Leesburg got 7" of snow and DC was all rain.....ahhhh the good ole days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro Ensembles. Deep trough which spawns a weak low running up the seaboard. Temps are to warm for the mid atlantic though. The temps are close though. It's always hard to tell when all you can see is a 24 hour jump, but before and after have 850's that are cold enough and 168 has them in the 0 to +2 range (at least for my part of NoVa). Anybody else have a take on what the eu ens are showing? Perhaps someone with access to other frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The temps are close though. It's always hard to tell when all you can see is a 24 hour jump, but before and after have 850's that are cold enough and 168 has them in the 0 to +2 range (at least for my part of NoVa). Anybody else have a take on what the eu ens are showing? Perhaps someone with access to other frames? Yep, hate that 24 hour jump. Without a high to the north probably wouldn't see any CAD so I think the best we could hope with what it's showing is for a quick shot of snow changing over to cold rain. So far out though and with the models all over the place chances are good we don't see anything resembling this when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Checking over the 00Z GFS ensemble and was surprised to see how closely it matches the Euro ensemble @ 168. The off run of the o6 Z GFS ensemble has a very similar look as well. Edit*** After looking over the individual members of the GFS I think it was just shear chance the similarities. The members are all over the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 00z euro looks nothing like 00z Gfs as it shows a coastal storm with some snow for RIC and DC at 156-180 with surface temps near 40 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Prep to punt this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Prep to punt this one we punt more than redskins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 we punt more than redskins At the rate this winter's gone, I think we're both punting into next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 So when is it going to get cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry No sense in pretending the overall pattern will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Maybe the system next week will just be an open wave that sends moisture NE. Overnight timing and surface temps @ 31. Simple overrunning and no needle threading or perfect timing........ah who a I kidding.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 So when is it going to get cold? i dont think extreme cold is coming.. just more of this general cold crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 i dont think extreme cold is coming.. just more of this general cold crap extrem cold is just hanging at the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 extrem cold is just hanging at the border seems like we've got about 10-14 days to get it if we want near 0 or something (which wont happen here anyway likely) .. we're about to climb out of the coldest part of the yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 i dont think extreme cold is coming.. just more of this general cold crap Some of those colors on the maps on the main forum look pretty extreme around here but it has been like that for over a month now and it never comes. I knew way back this was going to end up with highs in the low 30's as the extreme part. Too bad we can't get any moisture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As for the cold, it's a long time out, and I agree with Leesburg but here's a map anyway for conversation's sake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Some of those colors on the maps on the main forum look pretty extreme around here but it has been like that for over a month now and it never comes. I knew way back this was going to end up with highs in the low 30's as the extreme part. Too bad we can't get any moisture though. hard to argue against what we've already seen.. lots of cold but lots of stale cold. i guess we'll see.. there is still potential i guess but as you note keeps getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.