Next weeks Storm Threat and DT's Jan 21-22 Facebook threat

[Ian]

Go get em Ian...show them who's boss

lol.. pretty good spread on the models still. hard to say. climo ftw.

[TUweathermanDD]

yeah but maybe only half that with precip of any consequence. i was out since 9 last night so i havent looked at everything, but it still seems the gfs is the most gung ho. i'd have a hard time believing more than .1" ice at this pt and that would be my general max in the area.

I mean you are entitled to an opinion, and unless you take the GFS you are right. It seems that some of us believe in the possibility of an event of more significance though.

[aldie 22]

12z GFS for JYO

60 01/18 00Z 25 20 123 6 0.01 0.00 537 557 -3.4 -20.6 1024.8 94 -SN 043BKN061 133BKN225 274BKN388 29 25 3.9

66 01/18 06Z 26 25 92 6 0.07 0.00 539 555 -1.8 -19.3 1021.0 99 -SN 025BKN076 119OVC224 238BKN400 26 25 0.5

72 01/18 12Z 31 30 28 9 0.24 0.00 542 554 1.2 -19.7 1015.0 100 -FZRN 014BKN098 119BKN230 230OVC379 31 26 0.5

78 01/18 18Z 32 32 336 8 0.68 0.00 542 550 1.2 -20.1 1008.8 100 FZRN 006OVC116 116OVC229 229OVC345 33 29 0.0

84 01/19 00Z 30 30 321 6 0.03 0.00 543 551 1.5 -20.6 1009.8 86 -FZRN 009BKN053 123FEW229 245SCT318 32 30 0.5

90 01/19 06Z 31 30 238 4 0.01 0.00 542 549 1.7 -20.9 1008.3 72 -RA 013SCT024 139FEW227 231BKN288 32 28 0.5

96 01/19 12Z 32 32 177 5 0.05 0.00 541 548 2.2 -21.2 1007.8 97 -RA 044BKN098 120BKN192 237BKN299 32 31 0.5

102 01/19 18Z 36 36 301 2 0.18 0.00 540 544 1.0 -22.1 1004.8 100 -RA 021BKN095 118BKN210 231BKN326 36 32 0.0

108 01/20 00Z 33 32 299 9 0.03 0.00 535 542 -3.7 -25.0 1008.7 96 -SN 014BKN027 129BKN226 228BKN309 36 33 0.5

[Ian]

I mean you are entitled to an opinion, and unless you take the GFS you are right. It seems that some of us believe in the possibility of an event of more significance though.

if the gfs is right it's possible. i'd lean toward it not being fully right. but if you are hugging the gfs at least keep in mind that once you get into mod/hvy precip it's not all accreting.

[yoda]

12z GFS for JYO

60 01/18 00Z 25 20 123 6 0.01 0.00 537 557 -3.4 -20.6 1024.8 94 -SN 043BKN061 133BKN225 274BKN388 29 25 3.9

66 01/18 06Z 26 25 92 6 0.07 0.00 539 555 -1.8 -19.3 1021.0 99 -SN 025BKN076 119OVC224 238BKN400 26 25 0.5

72 01/18 12Z 31 30 28 9 0.24 0.00 542 554 1.2 -19.7 1015.0 100 -FZRN 014BKN098 119BKN230 230OVC379 31 26 0.5

78 01/18 18Z 32 32 336 8 0.68 0.00 542 550 1.2 -20.1 1008.8 100 FZRN 006OVC116 116OVC229 229OVC345 33 29 0.0

84 01/19 00Z 30 30 321 6 0.03 0.00 543 551 1.5 -20.6 1009.8 86 -FZRN 009BKN053 123FEW229 245SCT318 32 30 0.5

90 01/19 06Z 31 30 238 4 0.01 0.00 542 549 1.7 -20.9 1008.3 72 -RA 013SCT024 139FEW227 231BKN288 32 28 0.5

96 01/19 12Z 32 32 177 5 0.05 0.00 541 548 2.2 -21.2 1007.8 97 -RA 044BKN098 120BKN192 237BKN299 32 31 0.5

102 01/19 18Z 36 36 301 2 0.18 0.00 540 544 1.0 -22.1 1004.8 100 -RA 021BKN095 118BKN210 231BKN326 36 32 0.0

108 01/20 00Z 33 32 299 9 0.03 0.00 535 542 -3.7 -25.0 1008.7 96 -SN 014BKN027 129BKN226 228BKN309 36 33 0.5

Woah there... 1 inch of ice... Where do you get that Leesburg?

[Avdave]

12z GFS for JYO

60 01/18 00Z 25 20 123 6 0.01 0.00 537 557 -3.4 -20.6 1024.8 94 -SN 043BKN061 133BKN225 274BKN388 29 25 3.9

66 01/18 06Z 26 25 92 6 0.07 0.00 539 555 -1.8 -19.3 1021.0 99 -SN 025BKN076 119OVC224 238BKN400 26 25 0.5

72 01/18 12Z 31 30 28 9 0.24 0.00 542 554 1.2 -19.7 1015.0 100 -FZRN 014BKN098 119BKN230 230OVC379 31 26 0.5

78 01/18 18Z 32 32 336 8 0.68 0.00 542 550 1.2 -20.1 1008.8 100 FZRN 006OVC116 116OVC229 229OVC345 33 29 0.0

84 01/19 00Z 30 30 321 6 0.03 0.00 543 551 1.5 -20.6 1009.8 86 -FZRN 009BKN053 123FEW229 245SCT318 32 30 0.5

90 01/19 06Z 31 30 238 4 0.01 0.00 542 549 1.7 -20.9 1008.3 72 -RA 013SCT024 139FEW227 231BKN288 32 28 0.5

96 01/19 12Z 32 32 177 5 0.05 0.00 541 548 2.2 -21.2 1007.8 97 -RA 044BKN098 120BKN192 237BKN299 32 31 0.5

102 01/19 18Z 36 36 301 2 0.18 0.00 540 544 1.0 -22.1 1004.8 100 -RA 021BKN095 118BKN210 231BKN326 36 32 0.0

108 01/20 00Z 33 32 299 9 0.03 0.00 535 542 -3.7 -25.0 1008.7 96 -SN 014BKN027 129BKN226 228BKN309 36 33 0.5

The burg is done for

[aldie 22]

if the gfs is right it's possible. i'd lean toward it not being fully right. but if you are hugging the gfs at least keep in mind that once you get into mod/hvy precip it's not all accreting.

Yeah at that point it is mostly secreting

[aldie 22]

Woah there... 1 inch of ice... Where do you get that Leesburg?

Earl barker

[aldie 22]

The burg is done for

Nah...you already said rain

[Ian]

Woah there... 1 inch of ice... Where do you get that Leesburg?

Yeah 1" of ice with a temp at 32 durin the heaviest.

[aldie 22]

Yeah 1" of ice with a temp at 32 durin the heaviest.

My poor deck rails are done for

[TUweathermanDD]

`

Yeah 1" of ice with a temp at 32 durin the heaviest.

yep and i know that the temps warm up during the highest QPF so i got ya. Lets see what the Euro says which trended towards our GFS last night.

[yoda]

Earl barker

Where? I can't find it

[Dr No]

Only this year we get a nice southern stream impulse and a coastal, but timed right when a clipper on steroids passes to our north.

[Yeoman]

Earl barker

Bob Barker is a better source

[Ian]

`

yep and i know that the temps warm up during the highest QPF so i got ya. Lets see what the Euro says which trended towards our GFS last night.

i'd cut it at least in half though .5" ice would be pretty bad im sure. to get a really good ice storm you need colder temps or longer periods of lighter precip.

[WinterWxLuvr]

dont see the calls for major ice... i could see places n&w staying near or just below freezing till near sunrise

If, and I know its a big if, the GFS scenario plays out, I could see my area with a period of snow, then to freezing rain lasting until mid to late morning on Tuesday. Freezing rain is pretty easy to come by over here.

[aldie 22]

Where? I can't find it

www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

[WinterWxLuvr]

12z GFS for JYO

60 01/18 00Z 25 20 123 6 0.01 0.00 537 557 -3.4 -20.6 1024.8 94 -SN 043BKN061 133BKN225 274BKN388 29 25 3.9

66 01/18 06Z 26 25 92 6 0.07 0.00 539 555 -1.8 -19.3 1021.0 99 -SN 025BKN076 119OVC224 238BKN400 26 25 0.5

72 01/18 12Z 31 30 28 9 0.24 0.00 542 554 1.2 -19.7 1015.0 100 -FZRN 014BKN098 119BKN230 230OVC379 31 26 0.5

78 01/18 18Z 32 32 336 8 0.68 0.00 542 550 1.2 -20.1 1008.8 100 FZRN 006OVC116 116OVC229 229OVC345 33 29 0.0

84 01/19 00Z 30 30 321 6 0.03 0.00 543 551 1.5 -20.6 1009.8 86 -FZRN 009BKN053 123FEW229 245SCT318 32 30 0.5

90 01/19 06Z 31 30 238 4 0.01 0.00 542 549 1.7 -20.9 1008.3 72 -RA 013SCT024 139FEW227 231BKN288 32 28 0.5

96 01/19 12Z 32 32 177 5 0.05 0.00 541 548 2.2 -21.2 1007.8 97 -RA 044BKN098 120BKN192 237BKN299 32 31 0.5

102 01/19 18Z 36 36 301 2 0.18 0.00 540 544 1.0 -22.1 1004.8 100 -RA 021BKN095 118BKN210 231BKN326 36 32 0.0

108 01/20 00Z 33 32 299 9 0.03 0.00 535 542 -3.7 -25.0 1008.7 96 -SN 014BKN027 129BKN226 228BKN309 36 33 0.5

Are these made for my location, KOKV? If so, can you point me in the right direction?

[TUweathermanDD]

i'd cut it at least in half though .5" ice would be pretty bad im sure. to get a really good ice storm you need colder temps or longer periods of lighter precip.

yeah for me in looking for ice the freezing drizzle to light freezing rain "accretes" the best, so that heavy freezing Rain in JYO would be dicey, but like met derecho was saying before this is an interesting situation nonetheless.

[aldie 22]

Are these made for my location, KOKV? If so, can you point me in the right direction?

60 01/18 00Z 24 20 139 6 0.02 0.00 537 556 -2.8 -20.4 1023.7 92 -SN 042SCT061 133BKN225 273BKN388 29 24 1.9

66 01/18 06Z 25 24 121 4 0.06 0.00 539 555 -1.9 -19.3 1020.3 99 -SN 024BKN076 119BKN224 238BKN400 25 24 0.0

72 01/18 12Z 29 28 18 6 0.21 0.00 541 553 0.3 -20.3 1014.9 100 -FZRN 014BKN098 119BKN229 229OVC378 30 25 0.5

78 01/18 18Z 31 31 341 6 0.59 0.00 541 549 0.7 -20.9 1009.5 100 FZRN 006OVC116 116OVC229 229OVC345 33 27 0.5

84 01/19 00Z 29 29 304 4 0.01 0.00 542 551 1.9 -21.1 1009.9 86 -FZRN 009BKN053 123FEW229 245SCT318 32 29 0.5

90 01/19 06Z 32 32 204 4 0.03 0.00 542 548 1.5 -21.3 1008.0 91 -RA 013BKN024 139SCT226 231BKN288 33 27 0.5

96 01/19 12Z 32 32 184 5 0.07 0.00 541 547 2.0 -21.4 1007.4 95 -RA 044BKN098 120BKN192 237BKN299 33 32 0.5

102 01/19 18Z 36 36 315 3 0.18 0.00 540 544 0.2 -22.7 1005.2 100 -RA 021BKN095 117BKN210 230OVC325 36 32 0.5

108 01/20 00Z 31 30 297 9 0.01 0.00 534 542 -4.9 -25.6 1009.6 96 -SN 014BKN027 129SCT226 227BKN309 38 31 1.9

[yoda]

www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

I mean where do you go from there

[Ian]

If, and I know its a big if, the GFS scenario plays out, I could see my area with a period of snow, then to freezing rain lasting until mid to late morning on Tuesday. Freezing rain is pretty easy to come by over here.

i havent looked at everything of recent but the gfs is still sort of an outlier no?

[aldie 22]

I mean where do you go from there

Model Extraction Text Page

[yoda]

i havent looked at everything of recent but the gfs is still sort of an outlier no?

12z NAM says what precip? It gave KIAD less than .1 QPF through 84 hrs

[aldie 22]

12z NAM says what precip? It gave KIAD less than .1 QPF through 84 hrs

NAM wants to do December 26th again just a bit warmer

[Ian]

12z NAM says what precip? It gave KIAD less than .1 QPF through 84 hrs

nam is probably still out of its range. i cant pull up the euro, the site i use is down at the moment it seems.

[aldie 22]

Is the MRF still relevant? 00z shows a nice ice storm here

[TUweathermanDD]

Is the MRF still relevant? 00z shows a nice ice storm here

lol

aka the GFSx?

[Sparky]

Watch the Ravens/Steelers at 4:30 there might be a flizzard.