BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 How are the GFS and NAM such worlds apart on QPF...one has like .2 and the other 1.00...These models really do stink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 That may be true verbatim, but I'd take the surface temps with a grain of salt....the temps are close enough that it might be worth watching. Thats why i was looking at the 1000-850mb thicknesses to see. I was a bit surprised to see the thicknesses at 72 and 78 for the 1000-850mb still SE of DCA per the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 all the major cities get rain on this run, at least we don't get screwed while the NE gets massive amounts of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 all the major cities get rain on this run, at least we don't get screwed while the NE gets massive amounts of snow good to know were looking at different things, this is really worth watching for an ice storm from I-95 including the cities and N/W. 1000-850's hang on and SFC temps in CAD situations are likely underdone at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 what a waste of great qpf and track. This winter fooking blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 good to know were looking at different things, this is really worth watching for an ice storm from I-95 including the cities and N/W. 1000-850's hang on and SFC temps in CAD situations are likely underdone at this stage. I think we eventually go to rain. The high pressure really is moving out by 72-78... so we should switch over. The thicknesses are intriguing though i must admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I think we eventually go to rain. The high pressure really is moving out by 72-78... so we should switch over. The thicknesses are intriguing though i must admit. Indeed, and if that high hangs on a bit longer it'll be an icy scene for many. FDK over to HGR really gets iced over this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 This should be interesting to watch...looks like the northeast might get a nice little hit of 1-3 inches after the rain from this second coastal ... we still get rain from it though http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_102s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what a waste of great qpf and track. This winter fooking blows +1001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Ashame... close call. If the northern stream could slow down by 6-12 hours it might be a different story especially west. Part 2 (Wed/Thur) looks intriguing. Still Potomac Highlands & NW might get significant sleet/zr if the 12Z GFS verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I don't know. Still looks icy to me then a quick burst at the end. Better than what we've seen all winter. Still a "long" way out. 2 days away is the new 7 this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Can someone recap the Euro day 7-8? Is it good for anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Can someone recap the Euro day 7-8? Is it good for anyone? IF you like cold dry and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 IF you like cold dry and wind. 12Z storm is poof? Nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 We all know the nice 00z euro snowstorm is bs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12Z storm is poof? Nothing? Euro great track low qpf again but 3-6 inches for coastal No doubt it's gone at 12z though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I still don't buy the GFS temps. I think a lot of people are going to get a surprise snow/sleet/ice event if the GFS event pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12Z storm is poof? Nothing? The 240hr storm? Yeah they tend to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I still don't buy the GFS temps. I think a lot of people are going to get a surprise snow/sleet/ice event if the GFS event pans out. As I mentioned a few days ago models are always slow to pick up on CAD.. I'm with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The 240hr storm? Yeah they tend to do that. No, didn't 12Z Euro yesterday have a day 7-8 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I still don't buy the GFS temps. I think a lot of people are going to get a surprise snow/sleet/ice event if the GFS event pans out. I agree, I believe the cold is being underdone on the GFS, we have to take things like the snow cover into account as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I agree, I believe the cold is being underdone on the GFS, we have to take things like the snow cover into account as well. ? really? like the little pile of snow stacked up against the pole? cmon man, snowcover for us is not a factor in this..Im not denying the possibility of some ice but that wont be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I agree, I believe the cold is being underdone on the GFS, we have to take things like the snow cover into account as well. what snowcover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I still don't buy the GFS temps. I think a lot of people are going to get a surprise snow/sleet/ice event if the GFS event pans out. I agree. Even if the temps are right... some places in NW VA/N MD get a sig ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 what snowcover? no not for me and us around DC, I mean into areas like Central PA and north of us. I do still think the GFS is underdoing the cold as Derecho is stating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 dont see the calls for major ice... i could see places n&w staying near or just below freezing till near sunrise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 dont see the calls for major ice... i could see places n&w staying near or just below freezing till near sunrise There is a chance for major ice, I mean even minor to moderate ice in DC up to BAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 dont see the calls for major ice... i could see places n&w staying near or just below freezing till near sunrise Precip moves in around 5pm if you take the LWX zones... so thats 12 hrs of wintry precip Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Precip moves in around 5pm if you take the LWX zones... so thats 12 hrs of wintry precip Ian yeah but maybe only half that with precip of any consequence. i was out since 9 last night so i havent looked at everything, but it still seems the gfs is the most gung ho. i'd have a hard time believing more than .1" ice at this pt and that would be my general max in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Go get em Ian...show them who's boss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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