Inudaw Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I like the upper air pattern on the 12z euro better than the pattern represented on the 0z GFS.. beyond 168 hours-240 hours. XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Here ya go, Ji. After an early week snow, caked in ice, and a frigid stretch, then: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If the Euro is wrong again, I'm gonna burn down David Beckham's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS hinting at that silly snow hole again for that post 240 hour storm....low off the coast with most of the precip East....where's mitcnick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Here ya go, Ji. After an early week snow, caked in ice, and a frigid stretch, then: See reverse psycholgy worked. After JI called the run hpeless, a troff appeared out of nowhere and suddenly turned into a HECS. I think there is another threat in this period, the GWO MJO and NAO are all somewhat favorable. Hopefully it doesn't screw DC again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 We don't get legit ice storms very often. Ice is the only thing we in the MA hype more than wind. Color me super skeptical on the ZR/IP threat. i agree. if I had a dollar for everytime I've heard we are going to get an ice storm, or prepare to lose to power due to ice, or don't drive cause of ice, I would be rich.. It seems like these storms almost always underperform. And even if there is some accumulating ice, it never seems nearly as bad as it was suppose to be/could have been. I think part of this is due to urbanization, and I am including Loudoun County in that. But, after this boring winter, I would gladly take what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I'm more comfortable with ZR knowing the 7/25 Storm probably broke all the trees that could be broke around here As long as I dont have work, I'm good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Anyone remember a storm in January or February of 2004, maybe 03, that was suppose to be a crippling multi-day ice storm around here. There was so much hype about it. It was suppose to be extended, 3 to 4 day affair. After all the hype and build up, there was occassional freezing rain/drizzle mixed with snow at times for like 2 days in a row. But it never really seemed to amount to much, roads were basically fine, and no one lost power?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 i agree. if I had a dollar for everytime I've heard we are going to get an ice storm, or prepare to lose to power due to ice, or don't drive cause of ice, I would be rich.. It seems like these storms almost always underperform. And even if there is some accumulating ice, it never seems nearly as bad as it was suppose to be/could have been. I think part of this is due to urbanization, and I am including Loudoun County in that. But, after this boring winter, I would gladly take what the GFS is showing. Just look back in the newspaper articles-- there have certainly been freezing rain situations that were worse than forecast in the past few years in addition to the overforecasts that you seem to remember more. Remember the Mixing Bowl ramps being completely shut down by ZR on Super Tuesday (2/08)? And then that evening upgrade to an Ice Storm Warning when it became apparent that the ZR was going to hold on for longer than originally forecast? 1/27-28/09 also stayed ZR longer than forecast. If you're looking for power outages, that's just going to be rare in our region, and I really don't remember multiple instances of warnings about preparing to lose power. The two most recent Ice Storm Warnings were justified---2/12/08 certainly accumulated 1/4" or more in many locations and 2/13/07 also did for the eastern portions of the region. The only reason the western part of the region didn't verify was because the sub-freezing layer was deeper than forecast and we got that 3" of sleet instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I am really stoked up about this snowstorm next weekend - I can hardly wait to shovel my half inch of snow. I don't waste any of it - I am certain to pile up every last flake on the north side of my house. By next Saturday night - I will be 4.5 inches on the season!!! I am going to stay up nights tracking this snowstorm!!! NO. SLEEP. TIL. BROOKLYN.!!!!!!!!! HELL YEAH!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 EURO on the way out... we'll see what it shows for our 72-96 hr event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 throiugh 54 hrs, the euro is a lot quicker with the southern stream storm and slower with the northern stream storm per the 00z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Kenny... what did 00z GFS BUFKIT say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 0z Euro is just frigid... but with little blocking in Greenland. :x But +PNA keeps the cold coming... ;x COLD is the only word I can use tonight. :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro great track low qpf again but 3-6 inches for coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro great track low qpf again but 3-6 inches for coastal Great track, but because of the lack of blocking and or phasing, the trough never goes negative. Still plenty of time to sort this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 LWX sure going wintry late Mon into tues morning in their zone forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 and we're back...let the time wasting at work continue! looks like the 12Z nam is a bit slower and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 LWX sure going wintry late Mon into tues morning in their zone forecasts I have a 30% snow for Monday, 80% mix for Monday night and then rain Tuesday. Guess they are covering all the precip types haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 and we're back...let the time wasting at work continue! looks like the 12Z nam is a bit slower and warmer. 12z NAM has the majority of the precip east of I-95.. therefore into the warmer air. IAD is less than .1 precip the entire run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looks like 06z GFS continued to bang the drum for an ice storm along I-95 and NW. Winchester/Frederick/Martinsburg was not a pretty sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 looks like 06z GFS continued to bang the drum for an ice storm along I-95 and NW How much ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 How much ice? According to the 2m temps... this is ALL ICE in places like MRB, Winchester, Frederick MD. DCA/IAD I would say about 40-50% is ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Am i using this map correctly? http://www.nco.ncep....fs_sl8_078l.gif Thats the 1000-850mb thickness map. Since 1000mb is at the surface, it shows that there is a cold layer at the surface supporting FZRA. So am I correct to assume that the precip NW of that line if freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 You can already see the CAD on the 850 map at 48 on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Am i using this map correctly? http://www.nco.ncep....fs_sl8_078l.gif Thats the 1000-850mb thickness map. Since 1000mb is at the surface, it shows that there is a cold layer at the surface supporting FZRA. So am I correct to assume that the precip NW of that line if freezing rain? Mean layer temperature is proportional to thickness, but you can't always ascertain exactly where the freezing line will set up at the surface based on that (forecasters typically use certain values for certain layers as guidelines). You'd really have to look vertical profiles, but I assumed they would in fact show FZRA north and west of 132 line (not sure how far NW it would start). Having said that, the GFS sure has been advertising a CAD event setting up with potential for FZRA for a few runs now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12Z a bit faster with the precip at 72 and not as cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Though it has looked a little goofy too me, with the surface high displaced quite a bit from where you would expect it for a classic CAD event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12 hr precip from hr 60-72. DCA probably has just turned to rain... the 2m temps are prob 32-33. IAD is still freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12 hr precip from hr 60-72. DCA probably has just turned to rain... the 2m temps are prob 32-33. IAD is still freezing rain That may be true verbatim, but I'd take the surface temps with a grain of salt....the temps are close enough that it might be worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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