mitchnick Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'll take any winter weather right now. I don't care if it's frozen dew that would be called "frost" Sherman (boy, I'm showin' my age with that one all right ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 of course, its the 18z GFS, but the 18z NAM also shows strong CAD looking at the 1000-850 mb map. Ian/Mitch/Wes... do I have this right? What do you guys think? it's definitely one of the better runs recently if you want some wintry precip. i dunno if it's right. would imply somewhat messy conditions to the northwest with at least the whole night dealing with sub freezing and some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Don't the other models have this thing on the other side of the mountains? no, that's very common this side of the ALPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 of course, its the 18z GFS, but the 18z NAM also shows strong CAD looking at the 1000-850 mb map. Ian/Mitch/Wes... do I have this right? What do you guys think? you mean the runs on the 6th hour? the 666 runs? they are satin's runs and you'd be best advised not to look at them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Didn't we have this kind of scenario a few years back in a January? Where we got .1-.2 inches of ice overnight until about mid morning and then it changed over to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Didn't we have this kind of scenario a few years back in a January? Where we got .1-.2 inches of ice overnight until about mid morning and then it changed over to rain? I think I remember this. Although - the bigger ones obviously have stuck in my head better (the ones there we got .5-.75 inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z GFS would imply a long period of frozen precip in Ji's backyard that's for sure....right or wrong that IS what the model is showing right now. Each run starting with last nights 00z has gotten colder at 850 and the surface....who knows if the gfs will be right but to me it is worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 18z GFS would imply a long period of frozen precip in Ji's backyard that's for sure....right or wrong that IS what the model is showing right now. Each run starting with last nights 00z has gotten colder at 850 and the surface....who knows if the gfs will be right but to me it is worth watching. If we were to take this model verbatim (which of course is bad to do)... we could possibly see ice storm warnings for .25" of ice to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 that would be called "frost" Sherman (boy, I'm showin' my age with that one all right ) Thank you Mr. Peabody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If we were to take this model verbatim (which of course is bad to do)... we could possibly see ice storm warnings for .25" of ice to rain. Verbatim there would be a good period of snow/sleet back here at Ji's house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 If we were to take this model verbatim (which of course is bad to do)... we could possibly see ice storm warnings for .25" of ice to rain. Taken the 18z GFS BUFKIT verbatim, If you were in central north central carrol county, you would get 3" of snow then .4" of ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Thank you Mr. Peabody welcome to the club...the assisted living club that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 welcome to the club...the assisted living club that is I enjoyed that show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Taken the 18z GFS BUFKIT verbatim, If you were in central north central carrol county, you would get 3" of snow then .4" of ice! Any idea of near Fairfax county? Yes I am a weenie and I want to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I enjoyed that show yeah, me too I've always thought of Ian as Mr. Sherman and JI as Peabody. How about you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Any idea of near Fairfax county? Yes I am a weenie and I want to know best we can do for you is IAD, unless you can magically create a major airport in Fairfax http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kiad.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 there's something special about living on the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 yeah, me too I've always thought of Ian as Mr. Sherman and JI as Peabody. How about you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Any idea of near Fairfax county? Yes I am a weenie and I want to know 1.4" Snow... Then .65" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 actually, that's a little unfair to both of them you really need to capture their personality, but that's not possible unless you've seen the cartoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 actually, that's a little unfair to both of them you really need to capture their personality, but that's not possible unless you've seen the cartoon Well Peabody was the smart one so I don't think it would apply to either one of them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Well Peabody was the smart one so I don't think it would apply to either one of them.. that's enough said considering my original contention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 that's enough said considering my original contention! Here's another one of my favorite shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I thought you were a guy... I don't understand this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Here's another one of my favorite shows You know it's a bad winter when you click on a thread to discuss an upcoming threat and there is a picture of The Banana Splits instead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 You know it's a bad winter when you click on a thread to discuss an upcoming threat and there is a picture of The Banana Splits instead... Seems pretty normal to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Thank you Mr. Peabody Wow--someone here is both old enough and childish enough to get my username! (hint--home of moose and squirrel, said with a Boris Badinoff accent) Hey, your only young once, but you can be immature forever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 .. but there's a difference between frozen dew and frost. A couple of years ago I went camping with the Scouts. By 10 PM in the evening dew had formed with the temperature around 40 degrees. I assumed the temperature had bottomed out. However, by morning the temperature was in the mid 30's and our tents were covered with hundreds of tiny ice beads. We huddled and decided to pass out "Polar Bear" patches to all the Scouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 .. but there's a difference between frozen dew and frost. A couple of years ago I went camping with the Scouts. By 10 PM in the evening dew had formed with the temperature around 40 degrees. I assumed the temperature had bottomed out. However, by morning the temperature was in the mid 30's and our tents were covered with hundreds of tiny ice beads. We huddled and decided to pass out "Polar Bear" patches to all the Scouts. Yes indeed there is a difference! - Frost = Gas to a solid Frozen dew = gas ---> liquid ---> solid http://www.theweatherprediction.com/kid_weather_questions/dew_frost.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 .. but there's a difference between frozen dew and frost. A couple of years ago I went camping with the Scouts. By 10 PM in the evening dew had formed with the temperature around 40 degrees. I assumed the temperature had bottomed out. However, by morning the temperature was in the mid 30's and our tents were covered with hundreds of tiny ice beads. We huddled and decided to pass out "Polar Bear" patches to all the Scouts. Related question (somewhat)--I was camping on Dolly Sods, WV ~15 years ago in late January (yeah, I'm nuts--but Old Man Winter lives up there if you got the cajones) and the pre-dawn morning following a sub-zero night, all of the twigs, branches etc. were covered with the most amazing 1/2 inch thick ultra-delicate frost, which sublimated as soon as the sun came over the horizon--like instantaneously. A lifetime experience if you've ever seen this--but I've always wondered--is that "hoarfrost", or is there a name for it at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.