Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If we had snow in proportion to the negativity, we'd be up to our roof tops in snow. just wait like 2 or 3 weeks if we havent gotten anything more than another crap storm or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 just wait like 2 or 3 weeks if we havent gotten anything more than another crap storm or two I just don't see it happening. I feel good about the upcoming period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark304 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I just don't see it happening. I feel good about the upcoming period. By good, i guess you meant wintry crap....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I just don't see it happening. I feel good about the upcoming period. yeah we'll see. this upcoming storm was briefly modeled to have massive ridging upstream and downstream and now it doesnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 By good, i guess you meant wintry crap....LOL Good/Bad is different based on perspective, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 this looks like a Miller C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 this looks like a Miller C Please define Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I just don't see it happening. I feel good about the upcoming period. I thought you were a guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Please define sCrewed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 DID anyone post this already? Forecast for Sterling Monday: Monday Night...Sleet or rain likely or a chance of snow or freezing rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Covers everything! Jimmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 actually, all the precip that falls after 198 hours on the Euro this run is likely sleet/zr or mix south of DCA the 540 thickness line gets up to DCA if this run verified, DCA/BWI would have a decent snow event, probably 6-10" over 24+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Eh...I will follow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 18z NAM looks like a coastal forming at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 nam looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 dt is so lol Wxrisk.com KEEP IN MIND.... IF you live in CENTRAL VA all this is ... is JUST a possibility... NOT yet even at 50% chance. Now if you live in ATL or Greenville Spartenburg Raleigh ... this is already a more serious threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 nam looks good Don't the other models have this thing on the other side of the mountains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 nam looks good Also I never have seen CAD to the left of the APPS...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Also I never have seen CAD to the left of the APPS...LOL The high got confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 FWIW and yes I know it's the NAM in the long range...but I would rather it show something at least...so save it if you want to lecture me....I know the deal. 72 01/17 06Z 31 31 49 4 0.00 0.00 535 552 -4.9 -23.0 1021 100 -SN 001OVC263 0.0 3.6 75 01/17 09Z 30 30 64 6 0.03 0.00 534 551 -4.7 -24.0 1021 100 -SN 006OVC192 0.3 1.6 78 01/17 12Z 29 28 69 7 0.03 0.00 535 552 -3.0 -23.0 1022 100 -SN 000OVC311 0.3 2.5 81 01/17 15Z 31 27 93 7 0.02 0.00 535 554 -2.2 -21.1 1023 100 -SN 006OVC325 0.2 2.7 84 01/17 18Z 31 28 107 7 0.02 0.00 536 553 -2.0 -21.0 1022 100 -SN 000OVC290 0.2 2.0 00z GFS 102 01/18 06Z 29 28 134 6 0.07 0.00 537 548 -1.6 -24.2 1014.9 99 -SN 033BKN080 129BKN225 231BKN359 29 27 0.0 108 01/18 12Z 31 31 199 8 0.23 0.00 538 546 3.2 -25.4 1009.5 98 -FZRN 023BKN078 118BKN226 227BKN328 33 29 0.0 06z GFS is even colder than the 00z....nice trend 12z GFS 90 01/18 06Z 28 27 147 6 0.04 0.00 539 554 -1.0 -20.8 1019.2 95 -SN 049SCT093 118BKN221 229BKN376 28 25 0.0 96 01/18 12Z 31 30 187 3 0.17 0.00 542 554 0.7 -21.0 1014.8 100 -FZRN 024BKN098 117OVC224 237BKN368 32 28 0.5 102 01/18 18Z 38 38 201 4 0.07 0.00 545 552 3.1 -20.0 1008.7 100 -RA 050BKN086 131OVC230 239BKN372 38 31 0.5 108 01/19 00Z 36 35 321 3 0.17 0.00 544 549 2.1 -20.7 1005.6 99 -RA 045BKN088 139BKN229 230BKN344 39 35 0.5 114 01/19 06Z 33 32 328 13 0.19 0.00 538 543 -3.4 -21.7 1005.7 98 -SN 058BKN114 118BKN227 228BKN311 37 33 0.5 120 01/19 12Z 18 16 314 14 0.05 0.00 529 541 -7.6 -25.4 1014.4 76 -SN 039SCT058 125BKN225 226BKN289 32 18 3.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Don't the other models have this thing on the other side of the mountains? the nam sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 12z Euro threat beyond hour 168... looks good on paper.. Now you have to get those features in place for the storm. I see Ridging coming back into Greenland beyond hour 192.. you have a 50/50 low that miraculously develops for the storm in that range as well as a +PNA develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The 12z Euro threat beyond hour 168... looks good on paper.. Now you have to get those features in place for the storm. I see Ridging coming back into Greenland beyond hour 192.. you have a 50/50 low that miraculously develops for the storm in that range as well as a +PNA develop. There have been enough paper threats on the Euro to stock my bathroom for a year. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How about the GFS at hr 84...lol Is it me or does that give us maybe an inch of snow to some ice before it changes to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 day 7 is frigid here on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I have a feeling after this next cold outbreak next week that we might be in for a warm up. Based on the 6-12-18z of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 84 looks cold enough for snow/sleet.. then frz rain at 90.. then rain after if i am reading the 2m maps correctly and the 850s. The 2m line at 90 is probably out by KIAD as its likely 33-34 at DCA/BWI This would be a problem. 12 hr precip total from 78-90. 2m temps are below freezing during this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 of course, its the 18z GFS, but the 18z NAM also shows strong CAD looking at the 1000-850 mb map. Ian/Mitch/Wes... do I have this right? What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 84 looks cold enough for snow/sleet.. then frz rain at 90.. then rain after if i am reading the 2m maps correctly and the 850s. The 2m line at 90 is probably out by KIAD as its likely 33-34 at DCA/BWI This would be a problem. 12 hr precip total from 78-90. 2m temps are below freezing during this time yeah...i can see this becoming a pretty an interesting event. All the models (Euro/GFS/NAM) seems to be showing some kind of coastal while the storm out west continues to be modeled weaker and weaker. We could be looking at a quick burst of maybe dusting to and inch of snow, then an advisory level ice event, then rain. But a couple things have become apparent, I don't think it's going to get very warm. Maybe 40 tops, before dropping off. I love winter weather! Doesn't matter if it's rain or snow just as long as there's some cold air around and some possibilities still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 yeah...i can see this becoming a pretty an interesting event. All the models (Euro/GFS/NAM) seems to be showing some kind of coastal while the storm out west continues to be modeled weaker and weaker. We could be looking at a quick burst of maybe dusting to and inch of snow, then an advisory level ice event, then rain. But a couple things have become apparent, I don't think it's going to get very warm. Maybe 40 tops, before dropping off. I love winter weather! Doesn't matter if it's rain or snow just as long as there's some cold air around and some possibilities still on the table. I know its not a popular thing, but I really like significant ice storms. I think they are really beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'll take any winter weather right now. I don't care if it's frozen dew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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