ThePhotoGuy Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 00Z: 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 And right on cue, the 00z GFS serves up a vastly different solution than any other model in the medium range. Well, remember the 12 Canadian had a pretty interesting looking solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well, remember the 12 Canadian had a pretty interesting looking solution as well. True. I think my skeptic mind kind of forgot about that one though. Anyway, GFS looks like it would be a pretty quick snow to rain for most of the area. Bizarre how much weaker/colder this run is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 But Ian, that's a modeled high. That has to verify first. You know I've had several inches of modeled snow that didn't verify. That's really my point here. Most of the time, good solutions are viewed with skepticism, the bad ones, taken as gospel, and it seems if a person views a bad solution with skepticism, they get chided a bit. That's OK, I don't mind, I'm not mad at anybody or anything. I just wanted to point out the flaw in the logic as I see it, and to say that one day, us weenies will win, and a modeled event will turn our way. Couldn't agree with you more bro. Positive solutions are always looked at on this forum as unlikely solutions. A perfect example of how things can change from run to run is the latest run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Couldn't agree more. The weeine term is blown out of proportions. If someone gets excited about a storm when it is fairly certian it will occur, they arent a weenie but an enthusiast. People arent on here because they are looking forward to high pressure systems. Some here are probably about as much fun as a thunderstorm in the middle of a round of golf. Every word that comes out is negative. I guess it's a childish attempt at being cute. I hope that's all it is. The phrase weenie gets thrown around here all the time. It seems to be applied to those who chose to be hopeful and to try and see positives in the face of a negative probability. Well, if you're not a weenie, what are you? Realistic? That's a good one. How realistic is it to take a good solution days in advance and immediately start picking it apart as to what's wrong with it. 5 days out, can't be right if its good. Then, seemingly with the same "realistic" approach, take a bad solution 4 or 5 days out, and immediately start treating it as if it is written in stone. So, I think what some really love to do is to put as negative a spin on everything they can. Even if snows, it doesn't snow enough, or it won't last long, or something else. And all the "we're screwed this winter" comments. Huh? And the even more stupid "we're paying for last year". Weather has nothing to do with "screwing us". Do you really think there is some reason the weather models have all decided to gang up on us and show us a good solution just so they can disappoint us in the end? Or do you think it more logical to think that they just aren't very accurate 5 days out? Can a weather model have a south, east, north, and west bias, all in the same season? Can the biases all be lined up just so they can consistently show one region of the country the wrong solution 5 days out? But, because they are showing us something we don't want, they have to be right, don't they. That's just because we "deserve" it this year, that's just because we are unlucky enough to live here. That's not very sound reasoning. I'll proudly take the weenie label if it means I have hope for good things. I'm also sure that others will join me. It's one thing to just have blind hope, but its another when you do have some model solutions that back you. There are some models and some solutions from them that are interesting at the start of this thing. Nobody, including me, thinks this is going to be a snowstorm. But we could have some fun on the front end. Be better than nothing wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 00Z: 12Z: i guess one best hope is for it to go way west and shoot moisture at us so we can hold the cad till precip is done. im not sure how we'd get a lot of precip in that scenario though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Couldn't agree with you more bro. Positive solutions are always looked at on this forum as unlikely solutions. A perfect example of how things can change from run to run is the latest run of the GFS. If you were to take just the 850C line it would look kind of similar to the 12z euro. The reality is that no solution at 5 days is going to verify. Could a 50/50 low develop and provide enough cold air for a quick 1-2 inches of snow to ice to rain? Of course. Could the 50/50 just cruise on by and allow the storm to drive warm air in rain all over the eastern 1/3 of the nation of course it could. Anybody that buys any solution one way or the other with too much confidence could be making a mistake, particularly when there is wide variance and no model consensus. The middle ground is actually the best place to be, but it's also the most boring place to be. I for one prefer to look at what could go right with any particular storm. Others on here prefer to figure out how we get screwed next. For this area though, we get screwed so much more often than we get hit that if you just deny every storm the models ever show you'll probably be right 90 percent of the time. I prefer to look for how that 9/1 longshot "could" win the race. Whatever floats your boat I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If the low isn't going to go the coastal route, we actually want it to go wayyy west so we can hold the CAD in place. Precip would be light..but some overruning WAA precip wouldn't be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 If the low isn't going to go the coastal route, we actually want it to go wayyy west so we can hold the CAD in place. Precip would be light..but some overruning WAA precip wouldn't be bad dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The reality is that no solution at 5 days is going to verify. Could a 50/50 low develop and provide enough cold air for a quick 1-2 inches of snow to ice to rain? personally i'd rather it not snow if it's going to turn to rain of any consequence.. but i guess im weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 If the low isn't going to go the coastal route, we actually want it to go wayyy west so we can hold the CAD in place. Precip would be light..but some overruning WAA precip wouldn't be bad How can the Gfs show the low 1000 mile difference than euro on day 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How can the Gfs show the low 1000 mile difference than euro on day 5? just wait till it's flipped at day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The reality is that no solution at 5 days is going to verify. Could a 50/50 low develop and provide enough cold air for a quick 1-2 inches of snow to ice to rain? Of course. Could the 50/50 just cruise on by and allow the storm to drive warm air in rain all over the eastern 1/3 of the nation of course it could. Anybody that buys any solution one way or the other with too much confidence could be making a mistake, particularly when there is wide variance and no model consensus. The middle ground is actually the best place to be, but it's also the most boring place to be. I for one prefer to look at what could go right with any particular storm. Others on here prefer to figure out how we get screwed next. For this area though, we get screwed so much more often than we get hit that if you just deny every storm the models ever show you'll probably be right 90 percent of the time. I prefer to look for how that 9/1 longshot "could" win the race. Whatever floats your boat I guess. It definitely is more fun to take your perspective on following storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 i guess one best hope is for it to go way west and shoot moisture at us so we can hold the cad till precip is done. im not sure how we'd get a lot of precip in that scenario though. Ian, wasn't there an event similar to this at the end of January of 09? There was an event, I just wonder if you recall it and the setup that preceded it. It gave us, me, about 3 inches of snow, turned to sleet and then quickly to freezing rain. Then as the temp made it above freezing, it just quit. By nightfall the temps plunged and we were left with a couple inches of basically white ice. The whole event lasted about 30 hours or so. I just can't remember the setup prior to it. I know the low was west of the Apps. That's about all I remember. Edit: I see Randy here now. I know he would remember this one, it was decent for Hagerstown too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 personally i'd rather it not snow if it's going to turn to rain of any consequence.. but i guess im weird. Yeah wet fart storms are never pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ian, wasn't there an event similar to this at the end of January of 09? There was an event, I just wonder if you recall it and the setup that preceded it. It gave us, me, about 3 inches of snow, turned to sleet and then quickly to freezing rain. Then as the temp made it above freezing, it just quit. By nightfall the temps plunged and we were left with a couple inches of basically white ice. The whole event lasted about 30 hours or so. I just can't remember the setup prior to it. I know the low was west of the Apps. That's about all I remember. Edit: I see Randy here now. I know he would remember this one, it was decent for Hagerstown too. I dunno. The last decent event that shut down as it warmed that I remember was Feb 07. I was gone most of Jan 09 and out of it after so I may have just forgotten but I feel like 08-09 sucked till March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 It Just does not want to Fooking snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Wow what a storm at 264. The models never cease to keep us interested that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Wow what a storm at 264. The models never cease to keep us interested that's for sure. That has a -2.4% of happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ian, wasn't there an event similar to this at the end of January of 09? There was an event, I just wonder if you recall it and the setup that preceded it. It gave us, me, about 3 inches of snow, turned to sleet and then quickly to freezing rain. Then as the temp made it above freezing, it just quit. By nightfall the temps plunged and we were left with a couple inches of basically white ice. The whole event lasted about 30 hours or so. I just can't remember the setup prior to it. I know the low was west of the Apps. That's about all I remember. Edit: I see Randy here now. I know he would remember this one, it was decent for Hagerstown too. It was the first accumulating snow for the DC area (1/27-28)...1-2" of snow in the area followed by a trace to 2/10" of ice accretion. It came towards the end of an extended, really cold stretch where most of the area had its coldest day since 2/96. That was the month that PHL got 8" of snow one night from a Norlun while we were hoping for a dusting. You can read all the WSW's and see the radar images from 1/27-28 here: http://mesonet.agron...-KLWX-WS-W-0002 ETA: Surface maps- http://www.njfreeways.com/weather/2009/28-Jan-09-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That has a -2.4% of happening That 264 hour map looks similar to the march 1993 upper air just a bit further east. Of course it's not going to happen, but it sure is a beautiful image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hmm, dont remember that at all - jan 2009. it's actually probably not a horrible analog or a possible one at least looking at the surface at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 No warm air in sight on the GFS through 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 hmm, dont remember that at all - jan 2009. it's actually probably not a horrible analog or a possible one at least looking at the surface at least. Even DCA held onto ZR/ZL for 14 hours. I do remember clearly the modeling the days before it. *Everyone* in the Northeast corridor (including us) was spazzing about a 1994 over-running repeat. Euro was showing a moderate snow before the switch to non-snow, which of course modeled lighter and lighter as we headed towards the actual event. But, the shallow wedge did hold strong to keep the freezing rain a bit longer than the verbatim model outputs. You can see the spike in temps as it finally got mixed out in the lower levels-- we went up to the mid-40's with squally rain and then fell right back down that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The storm for next week looks to be mostly rain--- maybe some front end snow/zr. However, I am more interested in the second half of January. So far this winter, the southern stream has been either non-existent or too suppressed. Meanwhile, the northern stream has not been able to amplify enough/in time for us. Hence the snow all around us scenario. As we move into the second half of January, a new pattern looks to emerge. NAO looks to be mildly positive, but EPO looks to go negative and PNA looks to go positive. With enough cold air lurking around, I like our chances for some snow (not necessarily block-busters) during the second half of January into early February. On a side note, I was always told that when pessimism was running high on Wall Street, it was time to get into the market. Well, the pessimism here in this Mid-Atlantic forum seems to be running high. Maybe it's time for snow prospects to improve. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Even DCA held onto ZR/ZL for 14 hours. I do remember clearly the modeling the days before it. *Everyone* in the Northeast corridor (including us) was spazzing about a 1994 over-running repeat. Euro was showing a moderate snow before the switch to non-snow, which of course modeled lighter and lighter as we headed towards the actual event. But, the shallow wedge did hold strong to keep the freezing rain a bit longer than the verbatim model outputs. You can see the spike in temps as it finally got mixed out in the lower levels-- we went up to the mid-40's with squally rain and then fell right back down that evening. yeah now that i look at my files i see i have pics from it.. even an elevated one which i always am lamenting i can't get even though they are great in d.c. since there are no tall buildings. standard nina snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 0z Euro shows a soaking rain for our area and up the I-95 corridor. No surprises given stale cold air and an easterly retreating high. Snow packs up north are in jeopardy. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Period of light snow at beginning of Tuesdays rain storm, according to 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 06z NAM says JYO I think I love you for a couple of hours anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 6z Gfs snow to ice to drizzle for iAd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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