Next weeks Storm Threat and DT's Jan 21-22 Facebook threat

[H2O]

Ok, here's my take.

One, its pretty reasonable for all of us to be slightly pessimistic at this point. Only natural after what has gone down so far.

Two, if ensemble ind. members are discarded as "not possible", then why are they run? If there's value in running them, then their solutions must be "possible" even if not likely. To that end, some of the GFS, in fact a decent few, ensemble members from 18z have at the very least an interesting solution for our neck of the woods in the 96 to 108, 114 hour time frame. We could look at that in an optimistic way.

Three, where is all this warmth going to come from? We have snow cover to our west and south. I guess the only place would be the Atlantic?

Four, do weather models "see" low level cold very well. Do they factor in snow cover and frozen earth? If not, its possible it will be colder at the surface than it looks at this point.

Five, as we have seen with solutions that we liked that end up disappointing us, is it not possible, and after a while, even likely, that sooner or later a 5 day forecast will change (they always do) for our benefit.

Oh, well, that's my thoughts. I'm not giving up. I'm not getting excited, but I'm going to keep watching

This looks like a cut and paste from the handbook. You know, the chapter that talks about fantasy storm rationalization.

[H2O]

this is a good one.. we need a break. no one in their right mind should be paying too much attention to it.

lolz. You are new here, aren't you?

[aldie 22]

Put on your big boy pants!

Hey!

[aldie 22]

it might be dry through october but we can get 20" in one day and things will be OK.

Don't get me started Ian

[mitchnick]

Ok, here's my take.

One, its pretty reasonable for all of us to be slightly pessimistic at this point. Only natural after what has gone down so far.

Two, if ensemble ind. members are discarded as "not possible", then why are they run? If there's value in running them, then their solutions must be "possible" even if not likely. To that end, some of the GFS, in fact a decent few, ensemble members from 18z have at the very least an interesting solution for our neck of the woods in the 96 to 108, 114 hour time frame. We could look at that in an optimistic way.

Three, where is all this warmth going to come from? We have snow cover to our west and south. I guess the only place would be the Atlantic?

Four, do weather models "see" low level cold very well. Do they factor in snow cover and frozen earth? If not, its possible it will be colder at the surface than it looks at this point.

Five, as we have seen with solutions that we liked that end up disappointing us, is it not possible, and after a while, even likely, that sooner or later a 5 day forecast will change (they always do) for our benefit.

Oh, well, that's my thoughts. I'm not giving up. I'm not getting excited, but I'm going to keep watching

you forgot 6 & 7

Six, low qpf means it will fall as snow and high qpf guarantees rain

Seven, no matter what it takes this winter to deny us snow, we are fooked this winter; the only thing different in the 2nd half of the winter than the first is how we will be fooked

[mitchnick]

fwiw, the ever accurate SREFs look interesting with -7 or -8C 850's over us with an area of precip moving at us from the western GOM

the 500mb map ain't so bad looking either

with the SREF's always being so accurate, I'm already making change sin my calendar

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/index_x24_s_loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_85t_087s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_50h_087s.gif

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Ok, here's my take.

One, its pretty reasonable for all of us to be slightly pessimistic at this point. Only natural after what has gone down so far.

Two, if ensemble ind. members are discarded as "not possible", then why are they run? If there's value in running them, then their solutions must be "possible" even if not likely. To that end, some of the GFS, in fact a decent few, ensemble members from 18z have at the very least an interesting solution for our neck of the woods in the 96 to 108, 114 hour time frame. We could look at that in an optimistic way.

Three, where is all this warmth going to come from? We have snow cover to our west and south. I guess the only place would be the Atlantic?

Four, do weather models "see" low level cold very well. Do they factor in snow cover and frozen earth? If not, its possible it will be colder at the surface than it looks at this point.

Five, as we have seen with solutions that we liked that end up disappointing us, is it not possible, and after a while, even likely, that sooner or later a 5 day forecast will change (they always do) for our benefit.

Oh, well, that's my thoughts. I'm not giving up. I'm not getting excited, but I'm going to keep watching

Theres not going to be any snowcover to our south come storm time.

[mdsnowlover]

Why torture yourself with this stuff? Winter 2010-2011 is just not our winter.

strongly agree

[Ian]

Two, if ensemble ind. members are discarded as "not possible", then why are they run? If there's value in running them, then their solutions must be "possible" even if not likely. To that end, some of the GFS, in fact a decent few, ensemble members from 18z have at the very least an interesting solution for our neck of the woods in the 96 to 108, 114 hour time frame. We could look at that in an optimistic way.

they are not nearly as skilled as the op individually since it's basically a stripped down model. in my mind it's sort of like an analog or general statistical information... one is better than none but you really want a huge data set. i think the ultimate goal would be to have thousands of members for each run .... when you go to an avg of thousands it's more likely to be on to something than an avg of 10.

in a case where all op guidance says it's not going to snow i certainly would not go to the one ensemble member that says it does and take away any real meaning from that.

[Ian]

Don't get me started Ian

that was just for you.

[Dr No]

Five, as we have seen with solutions that we liked that end up disappointing us, is it not possible, and after a while, even likely, that sooner or later a 5 day forecast will change (they always do) for our benefit.

This. Having "more than enough" cold air over the MA clearly wasn't working. Snow has been well south. Need to try something different this time and start out a bit too warm at day 5. Let the south trend begin.

[Ian]

This. Having "more than enough" cold air over the MA clearly wasn't working. Snow has been well south. Need to try something different this time and start out a bit too warm this far out. Let the south trend begin.

you've turned into a giant weenie

[Dr No]

you've turned into a giant weenie

I like your use of reverse psycology.

[PhineasC]

you've turned into a giant weenie

He was already a foot-long Nathan's Famous.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Some here are probably about as much fun as a thunderstorm in the middle of a round of golf. Every word that comes out is negative. I guess it's a childish attempt at being cute. I hope that's all it is.

The phrase weenie gets thrown around here all the time. It seems to be applied to those who chose to be hopeful and to try and see positives in the face of a negative probability. Well, if you're not a weenie, what are you? Realistic? That's a good one. How realistic is it to take a good solution days in advance and immediately start picking it apart as to what's wrong with it. 5 days out, can't be right if its good. Then, seemingly with the same "realistic" approach, take a bad solution 4 or 5 days out, and immediately start treating it as if it is written in stone. So, I think what some really love to do is to put as negative a spin on everything they can. Even if snows, it doesn't snow enough, or it won't last long, or something else.

And all the "we're screwed this winter" comments. Huh? And the even more stupid "we're paying for last year". Weather has nothing to do with "screwing us". Do you really think there is some reason the weather models have all decided to gang up on us and show us a good solution just so they can disappoint us in the end? Or do you think it more logical to think that they just aren't very accurate 5 days out? Can a weather model have a south, east, north, and west bias, all in the same season? Can the biases all be lined up just so they can consistently show one region of the country the wrong solution 5 days out? But, because they are showing us something we don't want, they have to be right, don't they. That's just because we "deserve" it this year, that's just because we are unlucky enough to live here. That's not very sound reasoning.

I'll proudly take the weenie label if it means I have hope for good things. I'm also sure that others will join me. It's one thing to just have blind hope, but its another when you do have some model solutions that back you. There are some models and some solutions from them that are interesting at the start of this thing. Nobody, including me, thinks this is going to be a snowstorm. But we could have some fun on the front end. Be better than nothing wouldn't it?

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

Some here are probably about as much fun as a thunderstorm in the middle of a round of golf. Every word that comes out is negative. I guess it's a childish attempt at being cute. I hope that's all it is.

The phrase weenie gets thrown around here all the time. It seems to be applied to those who chose to be hopeful and to try and see positives in the face of a negative probability. Well, if you're not a weenie, what are you? Realistic? That's a good one. How realistic is it to take a good solution days in advance and immediately start picking it apart as to what's wrong with it. 5 days out, can't be right if its good. Then, seemingly with the same "realistic" approach, take a bad solution 4 or 5 days out, and immediately start treating it as if it is written in stone. So, I think what some really love to do is to put as negative a spin on everything they can. Even if snows, it doesn't snow enough, or it won't last long, or something else.

And all the "we're screwed this winter" comments. Huh? And the even more stupid "we're paying for last year". Weather has nothing to do with "screwing us". Do you really think there is some reason the weather models have all decided to gang up on us and show us a good solution just so they can disappoint us in the end? Or do you think it more logical to think that they just aren't very accurate 5 days out? Can a weather model have a south, east, north, and west bias, all in the same season? Can the biases all be lined up just so they can consistently show one region of the country the wrong solution 5 days out? But, because they are showing us something we don't want, they have to be right, don't they. That's just because we "deserve" it this year, that's just because we are unlucky enough to live here. That's not very sound reasoning.

I'll proudly take the weenie label if it means I have hope for good things. I'm also sure that others will join me. It's one thing to just have blind hope, but its another when you do have some model solutions that back you. There are some models and some solutions from them that are interesting at the start of this thing. Nobody, including me, thinks this is going to be a snowstorm. But we could have some fun on the front end. Be better than nothing wouldn't it?

You have my vote

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Some here are probably about as much fun as a thunderstorm in the middle of a round of golf. Every word that comes out is negative. I guess it's a childish attempt at being cute. I hope that's all it is.

The phrase weenie gets thrown around here all the time. It seems to be applied to those who chose to be hopeful and to try and see positives in the face of a negative probability. Well, if you're not a weenie, what are you? Realistic? That's a good one. How realistic is it to take a good solution days in advance and immediately start picking it apart as to what's wrong with it. 5 days out, can't be right if its good. Then, seemingly with the same "realistic" approach, take a bad solution 4 or 5 days out, and immediately start treating it as if it is written in stone. So, I think what some really love to do is to put as negative a spin on everything they can. Even if snows, it doesn't snow enough, or it won't last long, or something else.

And all the "we're screwed this winter" comments. Huh? And the even more stupid "we're paying for last year". Weather has nothing to do with "screwing us". Do you really think there is some reason the weather models have all decided to gang up on us and show us a good solution just so they can disappoint us in the end? Or do you think it more logical to think that they just aren't very accurate 5 days out? Can a weather model have a south, east, north, and west bias, all in the same season? Can the biases all be lined up just so they can consistently show one region of the country the wrong solution 5 days out? But, because they are showing us something we don't want, they have to be right, don't they. That's just because we "deserve" it this year, that's just because we are unlucky enough to live here. That's not very sound reasoning.

I'll proudly take the weenie label if it means I have hope for good things. I'm also sure that others will join me. It's one thing to just have blind hope, but its another when you do have some model solutions that back you. There are some models and some solutions from them that are interesting at the start of this thing. Nobody, including me, thinks this is going to be a snowstorm. But we could have some fun on the front end. Be better than nothing wouldn't it?

Theres a difference between being "hopeful" and telling the truth about what a potential pattern is likely to bring...Whats this hopeful crap all about anyway?..I love snow, but I have to be hopeful for it? im not letting to let my love for snow get in the way of my forecasting abilities....I will tell the truth about what I think about an upcoming situation no matter if I love snow or not.

[WinterWxLuvr]

You have my vote

I think the contest is over.

Last year, for me personally, the most fun was the Jan. 30 storm here. Every single model, save the CRAS, jerked that storm away from us, and then they all turned in our favor 24 hours out. We will not continue to suffer one setback after another. If weather is chaos, then simple probabilities dictate that sooner or later, one will turn in our favor.

[Ian]

Some here are probably about as much fun as a thunderstorm in the middle of a round of golf. Every word that comes out is negative. I guess it's a childish attempt at being cute. I hope that's all it is.

The phrase weenie gets thrown around here all the time. It seems to be applied to those who chose to be hopeful and to try and see positives in the face of a negative probability. Well, if you're not a weenie, what are you? Realistic? That's a good one. How realistic is it to take a good solution days in advance and immediately start picking it apart as to what's wrong with it. 5 days out, can't be right if its good. Then, seemingly with the same "realistic" approach, take a bad solution 4 or 5 days out, and immediately start treating it as if it is written in stone. So, I think what some really love to do is to put as negative a spin on everything they can. Even if snows, it doesn't snow enough, or it won't last long, or something else.

And all the "we're screwed this winter" comments. Huh? And the even more stupid "we're paying for last year". Weather has nothing to do with "screwing us". Do you really think there is some reason the weather models have all decided to gang up on us and show us a good solution just so they can disappoint us in the end? Or do you think it more logical to think that they just aren't very accurate 5 days out? Can a weather model have a south, east, north, and west bias, all in the same season? Can the biases all be lined up just so they can consistently show one region of the country the wrong solution 5 days out? But, because they are showing us something we don't want, they have to be right, don't they. That's just because we "deserve" it this year, that's just because we are unlucky enough to live here. That's not very sound reasoning.

I'll proudly take the weenie label if it means I have hope for good things. I'm also sure that others will join me. It's one thing to just have blind hope, but its another when you do have some model solutions that back you. There are some models and some solutions from them that are interesting at the start of this thing. Nobody, including me, thinks this is going to be a snowstorm. But we could have some fun on the front end. Be better than nothing wouldn't it?

some people here always run to the snowy solution regardless of the signals. the pattern is not that good for the next storm. could it snow? sure... but there's more stacked against it than previous events and we see where those got us.

if you (global you) want to say that the storm will trend to the coast and be a snow bomb or something give solid reasoning why the other evidence to the contrary is wrong. heck we've already seen the euro with a decent track and still give most of 99% rain.

[mitchnick]

Some here are probably about as much fun as a thunderstorm in the middle of a round of golf. Every word that comes out is negative. I guess it's a childish attempt at being cute. I hope that's all it is.

The phrase weenie gets thrown around here all the time. It seems to be applied to those who chose to be hopeful and to try and see positives in the face of a negative probability. Well, if you're not a weenie, what are you? Realistic? That's a good one. How realistic is it to take a good solution days in advance and immediately start picking it apart as to what's wrong with it. 5 days out, can't be right if its good. Then, seemingly with the same "realistic" approach, take a bad solution 4 or 5 days out, and immediately start treating it as if it is written in stone. So, I think what some really love to do is to put as negative a spin on everything they can. Even if snows, it doesn't snow enough, or it won't last long, or something else.

And all the "we're screwed this winter" comments. Huh? And the even more stupid "we're paying for last year". Weather has nothing to do with "screwing us". Do you really think there is some reason the weather models have all decided to gang up on us and show us a good solution just so they can disappoint us in the end? Or do you think it more logical to think that they just aren't very accurate 5 days out? Can a weather model have a south, east, north, and west bias, all in the same season? Can the biases all be lined up just so they can consistently show one region of the country the wrong solution 5 days out? But, because they are showing us something we don't want, they have to be right, don't they. That's just because we "deserve" it this year, that's just because we are unlucky enough to live here. That's not very sound reasoning.

I'll proudly take the weenie label if it means I have hope for good things. I'm also sure that others will join me. It's one thing to just have blind hope, but its another when you do have some model solutions that back you. There are some models and some solutions from them that are interesting at the start of this thing. Nobody, including me, thinks this is going to be a snowstorm. But we could have some fun on the front end. Be better than nothing wouldn't it?

look, I appreciate optimism, and have been guilty of my share of unreasonable optimism

but I still like to call a spade a spade

I've lived through too many winters in Baltimore and can smell a skunk by the middle of January

there's nothing wrong with being optimistic, but I don't think there's anything wrong with being realistic too (as for trying to be cute, I suspect nobody would prefer to hear it uncensored so cute, successful or not, remains the better alternative I believe)

at this point it has become a comedy of meteorological errors in the efforts for snow to fall around here

so be it; I've accepted this year is a bust and have said so

I've also said I hope I'm wrong; this winter season, like no other year in recent memory, has humbled a lot of winter forecasts from some very good mets so if I'm wrong, I'm amongst good company

anyway, its only snow and no matter where you live on the east coast withing 50 miles of I95, it will all be gone on May 1, so why all the angst is obviously unnecessary

I will still enjoy following threats in any event and regardless of my forecast/weenie proclamation

its what we do around here

[WinterWxLuvr]

Theres a difference between being "hopeful" and telling the truth about what a potential pattern is likely to bring...Whats this hopeful crap all about anyway?..I love snow, but I have to be hopeful for it? im not letting to let my love for snow get in the way of my forecasting abilities....I will tell the truth about what I think about an upcoming situation no matter if I love snow or not.

Well, if your forecasting abilities are using anything other than modeled solutions by a computer, what are they specifically? If they are models, then how can you decide which 5 day solution is right and which one is wrong? Was your forecast accurate for Tuesday? How about last Friday night? Were they 5 day forecasts?

[MD Snow]

some people here always run to the snowy solution regardless of the signals. the pattern is not that good for the next storm. could it snow? sure... but there's more stacked against it than previous events and we see where those got us.

if you (global you) want to say that the storm will trend to the coast and be a snow bomb or something give solid reasoning why the other evidence to the contrary is wrong. heck we've already seen the euro with a decent track and still give most of 99% rain.

Don't think he ever said anything about it being a snow bomb or a huge winter event for anybody. All he talked about was the possibility of a little front end wintery position.

[Ian]

look, I appreciate optimism, and have been guilty of my share of unreasonable optimism

but I still like to call a spade a spade

I've lived through too many winters in Baltimore and can smell a skunk by the middle of January

there's nothing wrong with being optimistic, but I don't think there's anything wrong with being realistic too (as for trying to be cute, I suspect nobody would prefer to hear it uncensored so cute, successful or not, remains the better alternative I believe)

at this point it has become a comedy of meteorological errors in the efforts for snow to fall around here

so be it; I've accepted this year is a bust and have said so

I've also said I hope I'm wrong; this winter season, like no other year in recent memory, has humbled a lot of winter forecasts from some very good mets so if I'm wrong, I'm amongst good company

anyway, its only snow and no matter where you live on the east coast withing 50 miles of I95, it will all be gone on May 1, so why all the angst is obviously unnecessary

I will still enjoy following threats in any event and regardless of my forecast/weenie proclamation

its what we do around here

i'd say the odds are pretty high the interior finishes considerably below avg the way things have gone. in the cities im not sure i'd write it off just yet.. we only need one mod storm and a few more crap storms to get into the avg range. we've been close enough on both bigger events not to think we have absolutely no chance. i think we'll get at least one storm that's double in size or greater than what we've seen at any given location in the dc/balt area.

[Ian]

Don't think he ever said anything about it being a snow bomb or a huge winter event for anybody. All he talked about was the possibility of a little front end wintery position.

maybe not, but dr no -- despite what seems to be relative understanding of the weather -- likes to go with the snowy solution and seemed to imply that this would trend se while noting how places south of us have gotten good snow.

could there be more cad than the models are showing? probably. does that amount to much in the end? probably not. a high spilling east into the atlantic is not good for snow here.

[WinterWxLuvr]

some people here always run to the snowy solution regardless of the signals. the pattern is not that good for the next storm. could it snow? sure... but there's more stacked against it than previous events and we see where those got us.

if you (global you) want to say that the storm will trend to the coast and be a snow bomb or something give solid reasoning why the other evidence to the contrary is wrong. heck we've already seen the euro with a decent track and still give most of 99% rain.

I agree with you completely. You are right. But some of us who do that, don't come here and say we think it is going to snow. For all of the optimism I preach, I feel like it probably won't. I'm just not going to come out and say it won't, because I don't think we can say that either, at least not 4 or 5 days out. And I know this is getting into that "well what's the point of forecasting", and I don't impune the work of those who have the expertise to try and forecast weather, but nobody is good enough to come out and say something absolute 5 days in advance, and those of us who chose to look for good possibilities don't really need a slap down everytime we leave open the possibility for something good. And just to be clear, none of this is directed at anybody in particular. I don't mind being called a weenie.

[ovechkin]

look, I appreciate optimism, and have been guilty of my share of unreasonable optimism

but I still like to call a spade a spade

I've lived through too many winters in Baltimore and can smell a skunk by the middle of January

there's nothing wrong with being optimistic, but I don't think there's anything wrong with being realistic too (as for trying to be cute, I suspect nobody would prefer to hear it uncensored so cute, successful or not, remains the better alternative I believe)

at this point it has become a comedy of meteorological errors in the efforts for snow to fall around here

so be it; I've accepted this year is a bust and have said so

I've also said I hope I'm wrong; this winter season, like no other year in recent memory, has humbled a lot of winter forecasts from some very good mets so if I'm wrong, I'm amongst good company

anyway, its only snow and no matter where you live on the east coast withing 50 miles of I95, it will all be gone on May 1, so why all the angst is obviously unnecessary

I will still enjoy following threats in any event and regardless of my forecast/weenie proclamation

its what we do around here

While this winter does indeed smell like a skunk, 1987 had 3 fantastic storms (not including the veteren's day snow the following fall) that didn't start until Jan 21. In fact the winter up until then was pretty lame. Feb 2007, with the sleet storm, the sunday surprise, also turned around an awful start. So the skunk smell is there, but all is not lost yet.

BTW- haven't seen anyone mention today- the 29th anniversary of the Air Florida crash.

[Ian]

I agree with you completely. You are right. But some of us who do that, don't come here and say we think it is going to snow. For all of the optimism I preach, I feel like it probably won't. I'm just not going to come out and say it won't, because I don't think we can say that either, at least not 4 or 5 days out. And I know this is getting into that "well what's the point of forecasting", and I don't impune the work of those who have the expertise to try and forecast weather, but nobody is good enough to come out and say something absolute 5 days in advance, and those of us who chose to look for good possibilities don't really need a slap down everytime we leave open the possibility for something good. And just to be clear, none of this is directed at anybody in particular. I don't mind being called a weenie.

while someone could argue the block has not helped us much locally i think having it back off pretty much nixes any real chance here. then all the models shifting the high from our north and out to sea giving us an easterly component are not helpful. imo the odds are far lower that this is of much interest than dec 26 or jan 11. we could get some light wintry mix on the front end but seems guidance suggests as soon as any real moisture gets here it's too warm except maybe far nw elevated areas. models have had trouble this season so it's not set in stone, but in the leadup to the last event we saw numerous runs with different solutions that were still at least a threat for more here. with this storm even the best runs are very problematic. it's fine.. not every storm is a coastal with a snow threat. im sure there's another behind it somewhere.

[WinterWxLuvr]

maybe not, but dr no -- despite what seems to be relative understanding of the weather -- likes to go with the snowy solution and seemed to imply that this would trend se while noting how places south of us have gotten good snow.

could there be more cad than the models are showing? probably. does that amount to much in the end? probably not. a high spilling east into the atlantic is not good for snow here.

But Ian, that's a modeled high. That has to verify first. You know I've had several inches of modeled snow that didn't verify. That's really my point here. Most of the time, good solutions are viewed with skepticism, the bad ones, taken as gospel, and it seems if a person views a bad solution with skepticism, they get chided a bit. That's OK, I don't mind, I'm not mad at anybody or anything. I just wanted to point out the flaw in the logic as I see it, and to say that one day, us weenies will win, and a modeled event will turn our way.

[Ian]

But Ian, that's a modeled high. That has to verify first. You know I've had several inches of modeled snow that didn't verify. That's really my point here. Most of the time, good solutions are viewed with skepticism, the bad ones, taken as gospel, and it seems if a person views a bad solution with skepticism, they get chided a bit. That's OK, I don't mind, I'm not mad at anybody or anything. I just wanted to point out the flaw in the logic as I see it, and to say that one day, us weenies will win, and a modeled event will turn our way.

it's a lot harder to get an ideal (i.e., intricate phasing at just the right hour) situation for any given location than a bad one for the whole area in general. nao is positive but the high over greenland is still decent to my eyes. if it continues to back off the high drifting east makes sense.

[MichaelScott]

And right on cue, the 00z GFS serves up a vastly different solution than any other model in the medium range.