H2O Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 looks COLD, WINDY and DRY in its wake. this season is super win. The only thing that will end up being very different from the typical Nina will be temps. Unless Feb/Mar torches we will have crushed climo temp wise. Precip, sadly, is right on course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 looks like it has a similar clipper coming in at day 10 like the gfs!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 A real concern that can not be under estimated is the lack of precip. The MA is dry. Drought conditions will be severe going into the Spring and Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 A real concern that can not be under estimated is the lack of precip. The MA is dry. Drought conditions will be severe going into the Spring and Summer. it might be dry through october but we can get 20" in one day and things will be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 is it me or are the EURO and GFS like worlds apart in their track? Sounds like they may be worlds apart with their track, however, the end result is the same, at least in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 looks like it has a similar clipper coming in at day 10 like the gfs!! These are the only real snow possibilities worth tracking this year. Clippers will probably give us more snow than the coastals this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 What about the arctic outbreak/torch? Seems like uber-cold or uber-warmth is occuring on every other run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 What about the arctic outbreak/torch? Seems like uber-cold or uber-warmth is occuring on every other run. The GFS and Euro ensembles have been pretty consistent in keeping most of the East below normal... but not drastically below normal (in the 11-15 day anyway). Heck, even the Canadian ensemble just came in with normal/below! Though I'm sure that will change Silly warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 it might be dry through october but we can get 20" in one day and things will be OK. You know that won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 What about the arctic outbreak/torch? Seems like uber-cold or uber-warmth is occuring on every other run. euro not nearly as cold here at the end of the run as 0z.. cold stays bottled up north of the lakes, perhaps coming in after the clipper modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The only thing that will end up being very different from the typical Nina will be temps. Unless Feb/Mar torches we will have crushed climo temp wise. Precip, sadly, is right on course. Looks like those late 1800-early 1900's Nina's. Something that Michigan snowfreak(I think) dude harped on as a possibility. Whether just luck , insight or both,.. kudos to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The GFS and Euro ensembles have been pretty consistent in keeping most of the East below normal... but not drastically below normal (in the 11-15 day anyway). Heck, even the Canadian ensemble just came in with normal/below! Though I'm sure that will change Silly warm bias. Yeah, just took a look at the 12z GFS ensemble mean. Definitely looks solidly cold through the entire period (except for the rain storm of course). A few mornings look like sub -10C territory out in fantasy land. Otherwise kind of steadily 5F below normal or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Canadian actually looked like a Winchester special to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 yes...winchester, Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 yes...winchester, Ohio Va Only a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 <br /><br />Close only helps in horseshoes and hand grenades And thermonuclear weapons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I prefer the warm/dry of 01/02 to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 And thermonuclear weapons But definitely not in this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS seems colder through hr 72. hp further south in midwest. hr 96 seems faster with northern energy? Looks pretty different compared to 12z. 18z GFS says, "How 'bout a lot of rain!" Hr 192 looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 this is a good one.. we need a break. no one in their right mind should be paying too much attention to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 this is a good one.. we need a break. no one in their right mind should be paying too much attention to it. We haven't tried that form of reverse psychology yet... worth a try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 this is a good one.. we need a break. no one in their right mind should be paying too much attention to it. Says the person who is tracking the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Says the person who is tracking the models. addiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 this is a good one.. we need a break. no one in their right mind should be paying too much attention to it. Damn. I was hoping for a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 if we get a break from storms, then let it get warm this cold and dry is expensive on the G&E bill and hard on the sinuses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ok, here's my take. One, its pretty reasonable for all of us to be slightly pessimistic at this point. Only natural after what has gone down so far. Two, if ensemble ind. members are discarded as "not possible", then why are they run? If there's value in running them, then their solutions must be "possible" even if not likely. To that end, some of the GFS, in fact a decent few, ensemble members from 18z have at the very least an interesting solution for our neck of the woods in the 96 to 108, 114 hour time frame. We could look at that in an optimistic way. Three, where is all this warmth going to come from? We have snow cover to our west and south. I guess the only place would be the Atlantic? Four, do weather models "see" low level cold very well. Do they factor in snow cover and frozen earth? If not, its possible it will be colder at the surface than it looks at this point. Five, as we have seen with solutions that we liked that end up disappointing us, is it not possible, and after a while, even likely, that sooner or later a 5 day forecast will change (they always do) for our benefit. Oh, well, that's my thoughts. I'm not giving up. I'm not getting excited, but I'm going to keep watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ok, here's my take. One, its pretty reasonable for all of us to be slightly pessimistic at this point. Only natural after what has gone down so far. Two, if ensemble ind. members are discarded as "not possible", then why are they run? If there's value in running them, then their solutions must be "possible" even if not likely. To that end, some of the GFS, in fact a decent few, ensemble members from 18z have at the very least an interesting solution for our neck of the woods in the 96 to 108, 114 hour time frame. We could look at that in an optimistic way. Three, where is all this warmth going to come from? We have snow cover to our west and south. I guess the only place would be the Atlantic? Four, do weather models "see" low level cold very well. Do they factor in snow cover and frozen earth? If not, its possible it will be colder at the surface than it looks at this point. Five, as we have seen with solutions that we liked that end up disappointing us, is it not possible, and after a while, even likely, that sooner or later a 5 day forecast will change (they always do) for our benefit. Oh, well, that's my thoughts. I'm not giving up. I'm not getting excited, but I'm going to keep watching Great post . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 We haven't tried that form of reverse psychology yet... worth a try Rain rain rain dryslot sryslot sryslot. SNE special SNE special SNE Special Too Far North Not enough cold air La Ninia Screwjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 addiction You should try learning that new language you mentioned - then when this next storm is another fail you won't feel so worthless for following it for almost a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 this cold and dry is expensive on the G&E bill and hard on the sinuses Put on your big boy pants! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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