2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 looks like the best snows are starting to move east of clearfield. my 3.75" call might be right on the dot...we'll see in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like the next 2 hours or so will be our best snow here in State College. I'm headed out for a brief walk before I head to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 correct me if im wrong but that looks PERFECT for us in west / central, pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 correct me if im wrong but that looks PERFECT for us in west / central, pa. 850 temps go back into like NW PA and OH. Not a good track. about 50-100miles east and it be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 850 temps go back into like NW PA and OH. Not a good track. about 50-100miles east and it be good. I am concerned about this kind of track with the next storm. The position of the western ridge axis suggests that this will try to come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am concerned about this kind of track with the next storm. The western ridge axis suggests that this will try to come west. At least it wont be dry. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 850 temps go back into like NW PA and OH. Not a good track. about 50-100miles east and it be good. ok - well at least we have the models showing a big storm somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It is pouring snow here. Can hardly see the stop sign 200 ft away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 At least it wont be dry. lol I wouldn't be complaining. My car will need a bath by then, anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This looks like a messy wintry mix -- sub-freezing at 850mb, but thicknesses are above 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 850 temps go back into like NW PA and OH. Not a good track. about 50-100miles east and it be good. Never mind guess the low is so strong it creates it's own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 OHHH Canada, how I love thee, please verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Never mind guess the low is so strong it creates it's own cold air. Wow. That's a classic 219 crusher! :snowman::snowman::snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here is the whole run it's pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow. That's a classic 219 crusher! :snowman::snowman::snowman: I hope you guys get crushed, I really do. If it rains on me in NYC all day and night while you guys get a blizzard, I'm game. Serious!! Time for Central PA to catch up in a major way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I hope you guys get crushed, I really do. If it rains on me in NYC all day and night while you guys get a blizzard, I'm game. Serious!! Time for Central PA to catch up in a major way. thanks for the sentiments, i wish more I-95ers felt this way, most dont give a rats a$s about us or act like we don't exist. Now if that dreded thermohaline current would just shut down, we could all be HAPPY I think the Jebman would agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro smashes up takes a low right up the coast. 989MB over PHL it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Moons out... Got .25" What a storm that was. In Euro I trust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Moons out... Got .25" What a storm that was. In Euro I trust! Man that sucks, this precip shield really got ripped up east of the Alleghenies alot more than I figured on, esp south central. Might be attributed to the low sneaking up further north. Precips nearly shut off here for the moment and the remaining is trying to push over the Laurels. Nearly 3.5" of champagne powder is what I got here. Maybe can sneak a half inch to get to the bottom of my forecast range here by the end of the night, we'll see. I'll sort out and remap the totals tomorrow to survey the damage to my forecast, although western and northern areas should be relatively close. On a better note, it appears the Euro is in prime position and cold enough for a CPA curbstomp, although i'd like to see some QPF totals to make sure. The trend all year has been for these things to be 100 miles or so offshore but with the more neutral NAO/AO I think its going to be at least closer to the coast and have a high chance to give the megalopolis some issues. I like where we're at currently with models, Euro pretty much splits the middle between the GFS and GGEM, and with the GGEM having its tendancy to maybe wind up things a lil bit too quickly and the GFS with its typical SE bias.. although the GFS has a healthy storm tonight. The GGEM is def not a solution i'd want to see pan out because considering the track and lack of a ohio valley low, its pretty unlikely in the wake of having a cold blast that the surface is going to warm up enough and it would probably be a heck of an ice storm for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Man that sucks, this precip shield really got ripped up east of the Alleghenies alot more than I figured on, esp south central. Might be attributed to the low sneaking up further north. Precips nearly shut off here for the moment and the remaining is trying to push over the Laurels. Nearly 3.5" of champagne powder is what I got here. Maybe can sneak a half inch to get to the bottom of my forecast range here by the end of the night, we'll see. I'll sort out and remap the totals tomorrow to survey the damage to my forecast, although western and northern areas should be relatively close. On a better note, it appears the Euro is in prime position and cold enough for a CPA curbstomp, although i'd like to see some QPF totals to make sure. The trend all year has been for these things to be 100 miles or so offshore but with the more neutral NAO/AO I think its going to be at least closer to the coast and have a high chance to give the megalopolis some issues. I like where we're at currently with models, Euro pretty much splits the middle between the GFS and GGEM, and with the GGEM having its tendancy to maybe wind up things a lil bit too quickly and the GFS with its typical SE bias.. although the GFS has a healthy storm tonight. The GGEM is def not a solution i'd want to see pan out because considering the track and lack of a ohio valley low, its pretty unlikely in the wake of having a cold blast that the surface is going to warm up enough and it would probably be a heck of an ice storm for somebody. The euro qpf I heard was 2" from Pittsburgh across to PHL. I think we get blasted this run! Actuality.. who knows. I am doing a storm Re-analyst as well. I saw the ruc going north with the low I should have listened to it. Oh well I know next time. But, I at least thought 1" here but, nopee.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Man that sucks, this precip shield really got ripped up east of the Alleghenies alot more than I figured on, esp south central. Might be attributed to the low sneaking up further north. Precips nearly shut off here for the moment and the remaining is trying to push over the Laurels. Nearly 3.5" of champagne powder is what I got here. Maybe can sneak a half inch to get to the bottom of my forecast range here by the end of the night, we'll see. I'll sort out and remap the totals tomorrow to survey the damage to my forecast, although western and northern areas should be relatively close. On a better note, it appears the Euro is in prime position and cold enough for a CPA curbstomp, although i'd like to see some QPF totals to make sure. The trend all year has been for these things to be 100 miles or so offshore but with the more neutral NAO/AO I think its going to be at least closer to the coast and have a high chance to give the megalopolis some issues. I like where we're at currently with models, Euro pretty much splits the middle between the GFS and GGEM, and with the GGEM having its tendancy to maybe wind up things a lil bit too quickly and the GFS with its typical SE bias.. although the GFS has a healthy storm tonight. The GGEM is def not a solution i'd want to see pan out because considering the track and lack of a ohio valley low, its pretty unlikely in the wake of having a cold blast that the surface is going to warm up enough and it would probably be a heck of an ice storm for somebody. Euro QPF for Altoona is 2.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro QPF for Altoona is 2.14" There isn't enough money in the world that I would pay to see this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro QPF for Altoona is 2.14" Oh my goodness! Wheres that "Mother of God" picture from the Philly thread when you need it, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh what are anyone's thoughts on the lows tomorrow night? How low will we go. Below zero maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Start the countdown for the slow trend east until the NYC area is bullseyed and we're hoping to scrape together 3". What the hell are you talking about. That's a big shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh what are anyone's thoughts on the lows tomorrow night? How low will we go. Below zero maybe? Single digits is probably it for most. There will be just enough of a breeze out there and still some leftover clouds. Higher elevations may challenge zero, though. It now looks like another lobe of cold comes down for Sunday night. Raw numbers off the NAM have the northern half of the state below zero. That being said, it's been a tough winter to get cold nights -- we've constantly had clouds and wind in our cold air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Single digits is probably it for most. There will be just enough of a breeze out there and still some leftover clouds. Higher elevations may challenge zero, though. It now looks like another lobe of cold comes down for Sunday night. Raw numbers off the NAM have the northern half of the state below zero. That being said, it's been a tough winter to get cold nights -- we've constantly had clouds and wind in our cold air masses. Seems like it's getting colder with each run too. We shall see. Anything in the single digits is dang cold to me. International Falls at -40 right now. How does anyone live there. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro QPF for Altoona is 2.14" dont tease us like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh what are anyone's thoughts on the lows tomorrow night? How low will we go. Below zero maybe? Yea prolly single digits, and possibly low singles in places like Johnstown. I'd say with the fresh snowfall it'd be no problem with calm winds but its going to be pretty breezy tomorrow night. Sunday nights prolly the best shot for central and northern. I'll be in section 523 at Heinz Field Sunday evening.. I'm hoping the adrenaline makes me not notice its like 10 at kickoff haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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