The Iceman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 His last update was at 1 p.m., says 2-5". His map is here: http://snowball.mill...ooks/latest.jpg (don't want to post his map without his page getting the hits) pretty much agree but would push the 1-3 a bit north...though you can verify 1-3 and 2-5 so it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Given ratios and qpf forecasts, 2 inches here would surprise me. I think we are on the "higher end", as it were, of the 2-5. And MAG, thanks for the update. AccuWx Pro has around .75 for a lot of us for next week on the Euro. .76 for MDT, .75 UNV, .64 for DUJ, and .83 for IPT. Gotta run.... yep, you should do well this storm...with ratios i think 4-6 would be more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So, tonight's snow will dump 3-6 inches. What is up with Tuesday's storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I aint buying the nam yet. SREFS look fine low still looks like it's heading ENE not NE like the nam. If the GFS shifts wild north then ok maybe there is something going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Given ratios and qpf forecasts, 2 inches here would surprise me. I think we are on the "higher end", as it were, of the 2-5. And MAG, thanks for the update. AccuWx Pro has around .75 for a lot of us for next week on the Euro, I hear. .76 for MDT, .75 UNV, .64 for DUJ, and .83 for IPT. Gotta run.... I agree....I'm thinking 4-5" is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's coming. AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 202036Z - 202330Z BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL OHIO INTO NWRN KY....WITH AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW ACROSS S-CNTRL OHIO. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG ASCENT PROGRESSES EASTWARD WHILE BEING AUGMENTED BY INCREASING 700-MB FRONTOGENESIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE ASCENT WILL COINCIDE WITH RELATIVELY DEEP AND SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES TO PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK SLANTWISE INSTABILITY BY 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO...WHICH WILL FURTHER SUPPORT MESOSCALE BANDING AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS SUCH...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So, tonight's snow will dump 3-6 inches. What is up with Tuesday's storm? Euro basically depicts PDII (I wasn't here for that, but the legend lives on enough I know the joy this region felt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Naturally all radars just crashed out of NWS... They better get radar back up soon. Maybe the decided to test out the new software again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro basically depicts PDII (I wasn't here for that, but the legend lives on enough I know the joy this region felt). Trust me, you would have loved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Final snow map. Kept pretty much same as is except for the 4-6 boundary on the southeast end. Was really concerned I might have to axe the 4-6 zone on the eastern end today but models have gotten wetter today. So instead decided to hang the boundary line south a bit to near Harrisburg and Allentown. In the 2-4 zone i expect alot of 3s and 4s and possibly some isolated 5's in southeast PA. Not confident on doing an entire eastern PA 4-6 like western PA, but its like splitting hairs making ranges for an event like this. High confidence western PA and Laurels. All in all a nice lil snowfall event incoming. By the way, i've been having off and on flurries the last half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 K Radar is back up. Looks playful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Euro basically depicts PDII (I wasn't here for that, but the legend lives on enough I know the joy this region felt). Yes, it looked eerily similar to that storm on the Euro. It's something the mets in the Philly thread were talking about either yesterday or the other day. Basically if the storm stays weak as depicted in todays 12z Euro, then the high pressure will be able to do the dirty work and its a massive snow shield for everyone. If this thing winds up on the coast, then those folks and maybe our southeasternmost CPA friends might be in danger of mixing or rain as it would be quite likely given the weaker downstream blocking scheme that the low would be hugging or slightly inland. Looks pretty decent attm, the Euro would prolly need to about double its QPF for PD2-like domination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 snow is in the air here. flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just started flurrying in state college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Did any of you see what the NAM has forecasted for KJST? It has QPF of near .55 and forecasted over 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 light snow 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Did any of you see what the NAM has forecasted for KJST? It has QPF of near .55 and forecasted over 9" Yea for them that doesn't surprise me with the upslope boost they will likely have, (nor does the models suddenly going back to wetter overall at the last second) which was why i got em in the 6-8 range in my map. Even when the synoptic shuts off for the central zones it'll linger a bit longer up in the Laurels.. and thats not including the lake effect that eventually sets in up there for probably several more inches in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yea for them that doesn't surprise me, (nor does the models suddenly going back to wetter at the last second) which was why i got em in the 6-8 range in my map. Even when the synoptic shuts off for the central zones it'll linger a bit longer up in the Laurels.. and thats not including the lake effect that eventually sets in up there for probably several more inches in that region. Yeah, NAM shows snow going through until Saturday morning.. Whats your thoughts though on Lake Erie being nearly frozen that hurts chances? More of a Huron connection? I miss my Johnstown-Ebensburg days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yeah, NAM shows snow going through until Saturday morning.. Whats your thoughts though on Lake Erie being nearly frozen that hurts chances? More of a Huron connection? I miss my Johnstown-Ebensburg days. Where are you at now? You should put your location in your profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS has 4-8 inches for my area...wasnt expecting to see that much. Tonight: Snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 17. Calm wind becoming northwest between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Where are you at now? You should put your location in your profile. Just west of the laurels..Fayette/Westmoreland County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS has 4-8 inches for my area...wasnt expecting to see that much. Tonight: Snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 17. Calm wind becoming northwest between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Yea i just discovered that's the case for Bellwood too. i'm right on the edge of it, checked point and click for Altoona and Waterstreet over in Huntingdon county for example and they're 3-7 inches. That's still pretty high. I wonder if they're waiting to see how it goes and possibly going for a mid event warning upgrade for the Laurels and immediate central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS bumped my area up too. Tonight: Snow, mainly between 7pm and 4am. Low around 19. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total night time snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Mag Thanks for the update. North East counties I would have had maybe 5-8 but looks good other than that. BTW where did you get your map? I like that! NWS has 4-8 inches for my area...wasnt expecting to see that much. Tonight: Snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 17. Calm wind becoming northwest between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Yea i just discovered that's the case for Bellwood too. i'm right on the edge of it, checked point and click for Altoona and Waterstreet over in Huntingdon county for example and they're 3-7 inches. That's still pretty high. I wonder if they're waiting to see how it goes and possibly going for a mid event warning upgrade for the Laurels and immediate central. yeah you would think they would issue a WSW if they believe 6+" is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 also snow has picked up in intensity and everything is now covered with a fresh coat of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NWS bumped my area up too. Tonight: Snow, mainly between 7pm and 4am. Low around 19. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total night time snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Yup, same here. It was 2-5 earlier. Tonight: Snow, mainly after 7pm. Low around 20. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Mag Thanks for the update. North East counties I would have had maybe 5-8 but looks good other than that. BTW where did you get your map? I like that! Thank you, I actually googled up a plain pa map with just counties and then used powerpoint and added the cities to it. And I also use powerpoint to draw the accumulation lines too and then just save it as a picture file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The snow is so fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Flurries started here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ABC 27's Rob Dixon just said Harrisburg would get .9" of snow. His "precision forecast" had State College at 1,7". Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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