Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The voice of reason.... If i was reading the other threads right, seems like a slight shift west, not sure of those implications. I would assume it is soon about time to start watching the radars and forget the models. I'm sticking by my 3-5" for North Eastern Cumberland County. Hey - not that I know anything, but I like that call. I texted my wife about the same time that you posted this telling her to expect about 4" at home. Hopefully we'll look good this time tomorrow! Does anyone feel there may be a surprise or two looking at the guidance this morning...and what to make of the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey - not that I know anything, but I like that call. I texted my wife about the same time that you posted this telling her to expect about 4" at home. Hopefully we'll look good this time tomorrow! Does anyone feel there may be a surprise or two looking at the guidance this morning...and what to make of the NAM? Yeah, i told my High School softball team last night they would at least have a delay on Wednesday, hell half of them didn't even know what i was talking about!.. i'm with you. after reading the other threads, there very well could be some surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The voice of reason.... If i was reading the other threads right, seems like a slight shift west, not sure of those implications. I would assume it is soon about time to start watching the radars and forget the models. I'm sticking by my 3-5" for North Eastern Cumberland County. Miller B's try a person's soul. jm1220 can tell you, we had two really crappy Miller B dryslot screwjobs in 2004-2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This evening should be interesting. Dryslot's gonna kill someone, probably me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Miller B's try a person's soul. jm1220 can tell you, we had two really crappy Miller B dryslot screwjobs in 2004-2005. Miller B's and their dry slots are like living here in the Piedmont with clippers. If I had a buck for every time we were supposed to get a few inches of snow from a clipper, and then watched as the moisture got rung out over the mountains and drying up completely before getting here, I'd be a rich man. It really is amazing how the pattern has changed the past 5-10 years, though. There was a time where longitude and elevation really mattered around here...watching in envy as storm after storm dropped a couple of inches of snow, then sleet, then rain down here while central mountains of PA got plastered. And as a kid, listening to KYW in Philly, and hearing Elliott Abrams call for "1-3 inches in and around Philly, 3-6 inches in the N and W suburbs, with 6-12 inches in the far N and W suburbs out towards Lancaster." I cannot recall the last time that has happened...but it used to happen every winter it seemed. Now, it's just the opposite...you need to be from Philly on east instead of west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It really is amazing how the pattern has changed the past 5-10 years, though. There was a time where longitude and elevation really mattered around here...watching in envy as storm after storm dropped a couple of inches of snow, then sleet, then rain down here while central mountains of PA got plastered. And as a kid, listening to KYW in Philly, and hearing Elliott Abrams call for "1-3 inches in and around Philly, 3-6 inches in the N and W suburbs, with 6-12 inches in the far N and W suburbs out towards Lancaster." I cannot recall the last time that has happened...but it used to happen every winter it seemed. Now, it's just the opposite...you need to be from Philly on east instead of west. Last year south of us really got hammered. This year SNE has been getting pounded. I'm still shaking my head at that nam reading for Hartford. I think Usedtobe/Wes sums it up best. For every storm that heads our way. If our goal is just a couple of inches of snow on the ground. Then anything else is a bonus! Jamie thanks for the update on the bad model run. We just have to remember, our turn is coming!! Maybe not this year. But sometime in the future we are going to be the ones getting pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ya know, when i was a kid, sure we had big storms on occasion, but these little nickle and dime events were our bread and butter. I was just outside and it has that classic feel and look of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Very interesting Mt. Holly update this morning (which, btw, Mt. Holly's discussions read much better to me than CTP. Personal preference I'm sure but they seem more, I don't know, modern in their discussions and forecast products). "THROUGH THE 12Z OBS, A EURO AND CAN GGEM COMBO IS WORKING THE BEST WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW, TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT 500MB ITS ABOUT THE SAME, NOT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BUT THE FORMER IS CLOSEST. ALL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MIDWESTERN CLOSED LOW EQUALLY AND QUITE WELL. LAST WALLOPS IS ALREADY UP TO +1C AT 850MB, ALL OF THE MODELS WERE TOO COLD WITH THEIR FCST 850MB TEMPS, WITH THE GFS THE CLOSEST. THIS ADDS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE NON SNOW PTYPE ISSUES ALONG OUR COAST. NO CHANGES FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE FIRST 24HRS IN ON BOTH MODELS FOR THE 11 AM UPDATE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ya know, when i was a kid, sure we had big storms on occasion, but these little nickle and dime events were our bread and butter. I was just outside and it has that classic feel and look of snow. I have a similar anecdote. Growing up in Texas, we were always missed on tornadoes. They tended to be in cities to the SW one year, NE the next, due west the next. Well eventually we got ours - our home was destroyed by a tornado twice within 4 months. Second time the home had just been framed. So, even in non-snow events the anecdote matches. But it'll always - maybe longer than you wish - catch up with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i see Tony lurking...awaiting his am thoughts!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This evening should be interesting. Dryslot's gonna kill someone, probably me! And CTP mentioned needles in their discussion. Ugh. That's what partially screwed in the 2004-2005 storms. Miller B's and their dry slots are like living here in the Piedmont with clippers. If I had a buck for every time we were supposed to get a few inches of snow from a clipper, and then watched as the moisture got rung out over the mountains and drying up completely before getting here, I'd be a rich man. It really is amazing how the pattern has changed the past 5-10 years, though. There was a time where longitude and elevation really mattered around here...watching in envy as storm after storm dropped a couple of inches of snow, then sleet, then rain down here while central mountains of PA got plastered. And as a kid, listening to KYW in Philly, and hearing Elliott Abrams call for "1-3 inches in and around Philly, 3-6 inches in the N and W suburbs, with 6-12 inches in the far N and W suburbs out towards Lancaster." I cannot recall the last time that has happened...but it used to happen every winter it seemed. Now, it's just the opposite...you need to be from Philly on east instead of west. Ya know, when i was a kid, sure we had big storms on occasion, but these little nickle and dime events were our bread and butter. I was just outside and it has that classic feel and look of snow. Agreed. The other thing, I remember as a kid expecting a good snow and it would just stop, hardly snow right in the middle and never really get going again. I would be heartbroken. I bet those were Miller B's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have a similar anecdote. Growing up in Texas, we were always missed on tornadoes. They tended to be in cities to the SW one year, NE the next, due west the next. Well eventually we got ours - our home was destroyed by a tornado twice within 4 months. Second time the home had just been framed. So, even in non-snow events the anecdote matches. But it'll always - maybe longer than you wish - catch up with you. Not something that I'd want in my resume...geez. Severe storms, tornadoes...you can keep all of that stuff. Glad you're still around though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Ya know, when i was a kid, sure we had big storms on occasion, but these little nickle and dime events were our bread and butter. I was just outside and it has that classic feel and look of snow. When I was 3 years old...I seen pictures of me in snow over my waist. Can't say I have anything even close to my waist in awhile. I'm sure Tony and Brain have been pulling their hair out these last few days. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_khfd.dat Hartford is up to 41" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And CTP mentioned needles in their discussion. Ugh. That's what partially screwed in the 2004-2005 storms. Agreed. The other thing, I remember as a kid expecting a good snow and it would just stop, hardly snow right in the middle and never really get going again. I would be heartbroken. I bet those were Miller B's. Oh yeah...snow would wind down, visibility would go up, and I'd wait and wait for the snow to resume... It never did. And I'd turn on my little weather radio and listen to Bob Curl say "National Weather Service radar continues to show a LARGE area of snow covering all of the central and south central mountains as well as the middle and upper Susquehanna valleys" and I knew then we were done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Funny how everyone gets all nostalgic when current storm threats are in the process of fizzling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 When I was 3 years old I seen pictures of me in snow over my waist. Can't say I have anything even close to my waist in awhile. I'm sure Tony and Brain have been pulling their hair out these last few days. But hasn't your waist got higher? Just sayin. last year there was over 40" imby. I am 6'1" tall, my waist is 40" from the ground. I had waist deep snow last year! The other day i looked at the list of the top NESIS storms. I had not realized how many of those i experienced, in my adult years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oh yeah...snow would wind down, visibility would go up, and I'd wait and wait for the snow to resume... It never did. And I'd turn on my little weather radio and listen to Bob Curl say "National Weather Service radar continues to show a LARGE area of snow covering all of the central and south central mountains as well as the middle and upper Susquehanna valleys" and I knew then we were done. lol, I remember listening to the radar reports. I couldn't imagine at that time actually having access to it. Funny how everyone gets all nostalgic when current storm threats are in the process of fizzling out. I don't really think that anyone who was using their head the last couple of days can call this a fizzle, especially given nothing has happened yet and I don't think anyone using logic was expecting a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 But hasn't your waist got higher? Just sayin. last year there was over 40" imby. I am 6'1" tall, my waist is 40" from the ground. I had waist deep snow last year! The other day i looked at the list of the top NESIS storms. I had not realized how many of those i experienced, in my adult years. To me, that stuff is awesome unintentional comedy. I hear "when I was a little kid I had snow up to my knees and we haven't had that in years." I heard that a week ago, and I reminded the person we got 13-14 inches from a storm last Feb, and unless you were a 6-ft-tall little kid, that would qualify as up to your knees. Of course I heard "what are you talking about, we didn't get a snowstorm like that last year" and of course I had to say "look it up." Which they did. Then I pointed out how bad memories are when it comes to weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol, I remember listening to the radar reports. I couldn't imagine at that time actually having access to it. I don't really think that anyone who was using their head the last couple of days can call this a fizzle, especially given nothing has happened yet and I don't think anyone using logic was expecting a big storm. Not in here anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 But hasn't your waist got higher? Just sayin. last year there was over 40" imby. I am 6'1" tall, my waist is 40" from the ground. I had waist deep snow last year! The other day i looked at the list of the top NESIS storms. I had not realized how many of those i experienced, in my adult years. Yeah I'm 5' 11" so there is a few inches difference lol, I remember listening to the radar reports. I couldn't imagine at that time actually having access to it. I don't really think that anyone who was using their head the last couple of days can call this a fizzle, especially given nothing has happened yet and I don't think anyone using logic was expecting a big storm. Jamie Pretty much agree with you on the fizzle. All these storms lately....Snow, no snow, a little snow, a lot of snow, a little snow ??? Thinking it might just be simpler to get up and see what's on the ground,the day of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This was EasternUSWx's map from a few days ago. I still like this best. Here's why: The 850 low to our west and north is always bad for steady snow. You'll typically get a "tongue" of decent snow that lifts through for about 3 hours, then it's dryslot time. The area that looks to get the least snowfall is from State College-Altoona-Bedford to Lancaster-Harrisburg-State College (the snow triangle). The nam usually handles these situations well and this looks no different. But still, 2-4 inches in that area is not bad. It's better than 0! The highest totals in the state look to be around Philly and also in Somerset County where upsloping will be maximized. In these areas, amounts to 8 inches are possible. The rest of us look to get 3-5, with perhaps 6 around Johnstown with some upsloping as well. Not a big storm, but a ground whitener! And we'll get to shovel a bit tonight and tomorrow. We'll get some light amounts over the weekend too. Next week looks like a Nina overrunning event, but we'll handle that over the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Thanks, Tony. Weekend clipper looks like a 1-2, then a sloppy looking storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tony Thanks for your time keeping us updated! This is for you guys that was wishing for 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 THEIMPRESSIVE UPPER JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW FEATUREOVER THE OH VLY WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE COASTAL LOW ALONGTHE MID-ATL COAST. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS STREAK SHOULDALLOW A SOLID SHIELD OF HEAVIER PRECIP TO FLOURISH ACROSS DE/NJAND THROUGH PA TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WRN PA. Someone posted that in the PHL Disco Thread...from an HPC discussion. One bright note I guess. Got quite cold last night. It was 10 degrees when I went to bed and several of the personal weather stations within a few miles of my apartment dropped to between 5 and 7 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tony Thanks for your time keeping us updated! This is for you guys that was wishing for 2 feet of snow. I laugh every damn time I see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 THEIMPRESSIVE UPPER JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW FEATUREOVER THE OH VLY WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE COASTAL LOW ALONGTHE MID-ATL COAST. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS STREAK SHOULDALLOW A SOLID SHIELD OF HEAVIER PRECIP TO FLOURISH ACROSS DE/NJAND THROUGH PA TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WRN PA. Someone posted that in the PHL Disco Thread...from an HPC discussion. One bright note I guess. Got quite cold last night. It was 10 degrees when I went to bed and several of the personal weather stations within a few miles of my apartment dropped to between 5 and 7 degrees. We got to 4.6, the coldest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's looked like snow all morning, but now the cloud deck is on the rise and the sun is out, albeit dimly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 People in the MA thread are posting models I've never heard of before. I love how last night someone posted a short range German model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's looked like snow all morning, but now the cloud deck is on the rise and the sun is out, albeit dimly. I have been outside the last 40 minutes or so working with some steel. My damn knuckles hurt, its cold. Virga....look at the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I laugh every damn time I see that. My wife sent that to me. Sure was good for a laugh. Looks like some of you to the west is going to get some snow. If not already getting it. http://radar.weather...1101111&loop=no snowfall map NWS http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/snowmaps/index.php?tab=forecast For low temp I had 14 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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