sauss06 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here is the critical HR for us on the 12Z NEM. Rest of the run can be seen at our FB page. Can't see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Can't see it Haha you can never seen my images at work huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Haha you can never seen my images at work huh? late yesterday for a brief time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 late yesterday for a brief time. Here is my post about the NEM just put up on our page. 11:10 AM 1/20/11 | The NEM (North East Model) is now fully operational. It will only run during times of active weather, and will run at 0Z and 12Z respectfully. This model is a mix of the GFS/NAM with a touch of human prospective. The latest run can be seen below. Enjoy. (AWX Team) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Flurries already here. 31 Deg. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 How are we schedule-wise? Looking like it starts before 8pm here in s-cent PA? I will be driving back from Philly at about 1am in a rear wheel drive 15 passenger van. Does that sound like a good idea to anybody else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Even though I am getting shredded for this in the Pittsburgh thread, I will post it here. I probably have most a inch to low, but whatever I am not a full time paid MET. Hope you enjoy my first ever map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Even though I am getting shredded for this in the Pittsburgh thread, I will post it here. I probably have most a inch to low, but whatever I am not a full time paid MET. Hope you enjoy my first ever map. At least you put the time in to draw a ton of lines and put some reasoning in there. The numbers might just be a little optimistic in some places... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At least you put the time in to draw a ton of lines and put some reasoning in there. The numbers might just be a little optimistic in some places... Like I told them, I do this as a hobby, I am not a paid red tag If I am wrong, I am wrong, won't be the first or last time. It was by first call a few days ago and I am sticking with it. No need for a few there to get all mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Even though I am getting shredded for this in the Pittsburgh thread, I will post it here. I probably have most a inch to low, but whatever I am not a full time paid MET. Hope you enjoy my first ever map. don't fret.. looks reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Even though I am getting shredded for this in the Pittsburgh thread, I will post it here. I probably have most a inch to low, but whatever I am not a full time paid MET. Hope you enjoy my first ever map. That looks like a great map. I like the detail and reasonings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Final call. As seen in video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 CTP changed MDT's forecast to 1-3". Was 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 CTP changed MDT's forecast to 1-3". Was 2-4". i just looked, earlier the nam had us at 3.5", now it shows 4.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 CTP changed MDT's forecast to 1-3". Was 2-4". CTP is for retards. LOL Here is what they had for me so far. 1-3" for like 1HR Yesterday 2-4" 4HRS Last night 2-3" Locally 4" 6HRS This morning 1-3".... UKN This afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The hi res models are apparently showing a northern shift in the L track... which would also take the heavier snows a bit north as well. That should be EXACTLY what I was expecting based on this winter's hatred of York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm skeptical of seeing more than 2.5" here for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm skeptical of seeing more than 2.5" here for some reason. Radar is matching up very well with this model right now. Later we get I ain't Scared...... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z NAM = 7.3" 12z GFS = 7.0" we'll see what happens...i predict for my area 3.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 And we'll be having snow long before i thought.....not that it means anything, just an observation.. A friend of mine who runs on a gut bucket thought she'd be off shift before it hit.. doesn't look like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 HI RES says pretty much .25"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 snowing in pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Final Predictions: IPT: 1-3 UNV: 2-3 SEG: 2-3 AOO:2-4 MDT: 2-4 LNC: 2-5 Bloomsburg: 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Uh, the Euro crushes everyone for next weeks storm. Continuous snow for 36 hours for .75" line from Altoona east throughout all of PA (north border to south border). Temps don't get out of the low-mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Updated Advisory from CTP. 2 - 5" remains on track... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 146 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...A WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... .A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AND PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON...STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ZERO. PAZ006-011-012-018-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-210245- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.110121T0000Z-110121T1400Z/ POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE- HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN- SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COUDERSPORT...EMPORIUM...RENOVO... PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION... LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG... MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT... LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN... BLOOMSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE... LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 146 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING...BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...AND BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM TO THE EAST OF WILLIAMSPORT... SELINSGROVE AND HARRISBURG. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN ABOUT 9 PM AND 3 AM. * WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. * VISIBILITIES...A MILE OR LESS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Updated Advisory from CTP. 2 - 5" remains on track... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 146 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...A WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... .A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AND PUSH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WIND WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON...STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ZERO. PAZ006-011-012-018-019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-210245- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.110121T0000Z-110121T1400Z/ POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE- HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA- NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING- UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN- SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COUDERSPORT...EMPORIUM...RENOVO... PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION... LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG... MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT... LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN... BLOOMSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE... LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 146 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING...BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY...AND BETWEEN 7 AND 9 PM TO THE EAST OF WILLIAMSPORT... SELINSGROVE AND HARRISBURG. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN ABOUT 9 PM AND 3 AM. * WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD DAYBREAK. STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. * VISIBILITIES...A MILE OR LESS. Really liking my 2-5" map now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Uh, the Euro crushes everyone for next weeks storm. Continuous snow for 36 hours for .75" line from Altoona east throughout all of PA (north border to south border). Temps don't get out of the low-mid 20s. where are you getting this info?...euro precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Snow mappage...Just no love for those York and Adams boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Snow mappage...Just no love for those York and Adams boys. Not happening. I'll say it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 where are you getting this info?...euro precip? He got it from Mid-Atlantic thread prob. Sounds like .5" for mainly everyone except for west probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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