pawxworld Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 sooner or later a squirrel will find its nuts Understood, just telling everyone what he said about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 My wife just saw JB, speaking of him. He helps coach the PSU wrestling team, and we got to know him from my days working at AccuWx. He said 4-6 here but there's a bit of a chance for more if it digs more. And of course she had no idea what he was saying..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What's that, an old Amish weather proverb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 My wife just saw JB, speaking of him. He helps coach the PSU wrestling team, and we got to know him from my days working at AccuWx. He said 4-6 here but there's a bit of a chance for more if it digs more. And of course she had no idea what he was saying..... I didn't realize he helped coach? Wow. I mean, i knew he was a grappler and all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 we need to get one of red taggers in here to give us their thoughts for Friday as well as next week. Thats why we pay them the big bucks! It all depends on how much and how quickly the southern energy phases in with the northern energy. The NAM has been consistently phasing earlier and strengthening the storm earlier, which would give us more snow. The Canadian shows a similar solution. The GFS leaves some of the southern energy behind and phases a bit later, which strengthens the storm after it passes by us, which would still give us some snow, but not as much. GFS/Euro are the weakest of the bunch, but they are also the models that tend to leave energy behind too much. Looks like a good bet, though, to see at least a couple of inches of snow for most of us Thursday night. And we'll be playing with the ratios wild card again. 850mb temps are near -10 during most of the event, so this will once again be a very powdery, light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It all depends on how much and how quickly the southern energy phases in with the northern energy. The NAM has been consistently phasing earlier and strengthening the storm earlier, which would give us more snow. The Canadian shows a similar solution. The GFS leaves some of the southern energy behind and phases a bit later, which strengthens the storm after it passes by us, which would still give us some snow, but not as much. GFS/Euro are the weakest of the bunch, but they are also the models that tend to leave energy behind too much. Looks like a good bet, though, to see at least a couple of inches of snow for most of us Thursday night. And we'll be playing with the ratios wild card again. 850mb temps are near -10 during most of the event, so this will once again be a very powdery, light snow. thank you for your thoughts. Might find a little extra in your pay this week if this pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawxworld Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/fp0_018.shtml hmmm...who knows if it makes it over the mountains maybe a little more frozen for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 NAM gives me .2" Tonight mostly frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What's that, an old Amish weather proverb? That's funny!! Brain Thanks for your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 we need to get one of red taggers in here to give us their thoughts for Friday as well as next week. Thats why we pay them the big bucks! I actually did throw some thoughts on last night, Onto the end of the week system.. i'm starting to get excited about it. The NAM and GGEM look great and the GFS is getting there with the ensemble mean looking pretty decent. IMO, I think the pattern we are in is a great setup to see a classic CPA storm like the NAM/GGEM is showing. With the NAO more east based and not as influencing, its going to allow for a more westward track. And with the cold air over the top, there should be a nice shield of snow with this. As I said a few days ago in here i believe, having a stronger -NAO is not as important here as it is for the folks further east if the pattern is supportive for cold in the PNA and AO. I also threw something like this as well as mentioning the MJO in the Philly/NYC thread twice. And it got buried twice without a response haha. Thoughts really haven't changed today, I had a look at the 15z SREFS and they put probs at 70%+ for an inch or more PA-wide hours 66-72 with some 30-40% for 4+ starting Harrisburg to Allentown and also a bit in western PA. Running through it you can tell there's a slight decrease in probs in the central counties off the Laurels, but in this situation it would likely not be anything major. Looking at the p-type probs there is def some spread on rain vs snow very close to the big cities. And this is something I would be keep an eye on in that area if this storm ends up a bit stronger like the NAM has it. As it stands right now, to me it looks like a solid 3-6ish type event for everyone here with some chance for that to be a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I actually did throw some thoughts on last night, Thoughts really haven't changed today, I had a look at the 15z SREFS and they put probs at 70%+ for an inch or more PA-wide hours 66-72 with some 30-40% for 4+ starting Harrisburg to Allentown and also a bit in western PA. Running through it you can tell there's a slight decrease in probs in the central counties off the Laurels, but in this situation it would likely not be anything major. Looking at the p-type probs there is def some spread on rain vs snow very close to the big cities. And this is something I would be keep an eye on in that area if this storm ends up a bit stronger like the NAM has it. As it stands right now, to me it looks like a solid 3-6ish type event for everyone here with some chance for that to be a bit more. Thank you kind sir. I did see your previous post, i was looking for any updates , which you just gave us... again thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 thank you for your thoughts. Might find a little extra in your pay this week if this pans out I kind of like this idea -- maybe a commission based on how much snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I didn't realize he helped coach? Wow. I mean, i knew he was a grappler and all.. Yeah, helps out as a volunteer, especially with strength training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Martin ftw, .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --LOOKING MORE AT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NOW. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE. SYSTEM FOR THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...THUS LOOKING AT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. TIMING SITLL SIMILAR...MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM HAS SYSTEM REALLY CRANKING UP FRIDAY AFT... BELOW 980 MB...THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER CHUCK OF COLD AIR BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD. NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THIS. THERE WILL BE A TENDENDY TO SPLIT THE HIGH...WITH THE MAIN COLD AIR STAYING NORTH OF LAKE ONT... FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... SOME COLD AIR WILL MOST LIKELY GET INTO N PA. NOT SEEING ANY HUGE STORMS AT THIS POINT. LEFT THE PERIOD MAINLY DRY. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE FOR LATER MONDAY INTO WED.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thr 18z NAM is OK for us, but still puts our while area in the screwzobe compared to those west and east. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Long Term Discussion updated from CTP: Always a bummer to see the word "overdone" used twice when referring to QPF. Looks like we'll get to play the Advisory versus Warning game again though. LOOKING MORE AT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NOW. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE. SYSTEM FOR THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...THUS LOOKING AT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. TIMING SITLL SIMILAR...MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM HAS SYSTEM REALLY CRANKING UP FRIDAY AFT... BELOW 980 MB...THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER CHUCK OF COLD AIR BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD. NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THIS. THERE WILL BE A TENDENDY TO SPLIT THE HIGH...WITH THE MAIN COLD AIR STAYING NORTH OF LAKE ONT... FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... SOME COLD AIR WILL MOST LIKELY GET INTO N PA. NOT SEEING ANY HUGE STORMS AT THIS POINT. LEFT THE PERIOD MAINLY DRY. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE FOR LATER MONDAY INTO WED.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Martin ftw, lol....I have grown to kind of like that guy. But I am disappointed in the lack of the term "hard to see" in this AFD. I think it looks pretty interesting in the next week or so, but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Long Term Discussion updated from CTP: Always a bummer to see the word "overdone" used twice when referring to QPF. Looks like we'll get to play the Advisory versus Warning game again though. LOOKING MORE AT A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NOW. DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE. SYSTEM FOR THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A SOUTHERN TRACK NOW...THUS LOOKING AT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. TIMING SITLL SIMILAR...MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THU INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NAM HAS SYSTEM REALLY CRANKING UP FRIDAY AFT... BELOW 980 MB...THIS MAY BE OVERDONE. HOWEVER...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER CHUCK OF COLD AIR BEING ADVECTED SOUTHWARD. NOT MUCH GOING ON AFTER THIS. THERE WILL BE A TENDENDY TO SPLIT THE HIGH...WITH THE MAIN COLD AIR STAYING NORTH OF LAKE ONT... FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... SOME COLD AIR WILL MOST LIKELY GET INTO N PA. NOT SEEING ANY HUGE STORMS AT THIS POINT. LEFT THE PERIOD MAINLY DRY. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH MOISTURE FOR LATER MONDAY INTO WED.-- End Changed Discussion -- That's Martin. He tends to downplay everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Watches tomorrow? 4-6" or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Watches tomorrow? 4-6" or something? that'd be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 18Z GFS is nice. 4"+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18Z GFS is nice. 4"+ storm. I just hope we can break 6 inches, but iduno! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 I just hope we can break 6 inches, but iduno! I think it's possible. .4" QPF at 15:1 ratio average to 6.5" My first guess is coming tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 lol....I have grown to kind of like that guy. But I am disappointed in the lack of the term "hard to see" in this AFD. I think it looks pretty interesting in the next week or so, but what do I know. There's nothing wrong with bein conservative with some forecasts, especially since its still a few days out and then of course the long range where storms are back and forth, "a few inches" is a pretty reasonable call at this juncture. I just wish he went into a bit more detail on things sometimes when he does the AFD's, especially when there's an event within a few days. Although I would imagine the priority esp in the afternoon is getting the products out over writing a detailed AFD section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Here's the 18z NAM clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There's nothing wrong with bein conservative with some forecasts, especially since its still a few days out and then of course the long range where storms are back and forth, "a few inches" is a pretty reasonable call at this juncture. I just wish he went into a bit more detail on things sometimes when he does the AFD's, especially when there's an event within a few days. Although I would imagine the priority esp in the afternoon is getting the products out over writing a detailed AFD section. I've always wondered, and forgive me if this kind of question is out-of-line: Is there any type of rivalry between NWS guys and on-air mets and "professional" mets (the guys who work for private companies)? I mean, is a position with the NWS a goal that most mets have, or not really? I imagine they're apples v oranges so it's not much of a competition, but figured I'd ask. (For the record, as a journalist, it's no rivalry really until someone infringes on your specific coverage area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Here is what I came up with Via first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I've always wondered, and forgive me if this kind of question is out-of-line: Is there any type of rivalry between NWS guys and on-air mets and "professional" mets (the guys who work for private companies)? I mean, is a position with the NWS a goal that most mets have, or not really? I imagine they're apples v oranges so it's not much of a competition, but figured I'd ask. (For the record, as a journalist, it's no rivalry really until someone infringes on your specific coverage area) Nah def not out of line, its a good question. It's probably a more one-sided affair when it comes to any "rivalry" between private sector/broadcast and the gov't. Private sector companies like Accuweather are businesses, and thus are out to make a profit by providing the best forecasts to their clientele. And a good way to measure up with a good call is to make one before the National Weather Service does. I think the only time i've ever heard about anyone from the national weather service refer to private sector was last February with Accuweather's "snowicane" reference. With your second question, it all depends on what the meteorologist focused on in their major, as there's def plenty of other options in and out of gov't outside of the NWS. There's different options in the major in Penn State for instance, like broadcasting, climatology, weather risk (new one), forecasting, environmental, general etc. Doing the broadcast option would set you up the best for being on TV/radio, while say the forecasting option would be good for NWS and Accuweather's forecaster positions. I did the general option, and took a minor in GIS to expand my options a bit. I would personally like to be a forecaster in a meteo setting, so i've been applying to met intern openings at the NWS. I've also applied to Accuweather when they had forecaster openings in the summer. Accuweather didn't even interview me because i didn't have a certain course I needed that wasn't required by my option and I haven't had any luck with the NWS either, although alot of ppl don't haha. Ironically enough the only thing i've been actually interviewed for since graduating 5 months ago was a GIS job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Here is what I came up with Via first guess. Great Map.. This looks like a very quick event for WPA.. I would trim highlands from 7-11 to maybe 4-8 and put 4-7 area at 2-5.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Great Map.. This looks like a very quick event for WPA.. I would trim highlands from 7-11 to maybe 4-8 and put 4-7 area at 2-5.. Ratio's are plenty high even with low qpf totals will be pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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